Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Inflation

Most recents (24)

One noteworthy aspect of the #COVID19 market has been the success with which the #Fed & other #centralbanks have been able to stem the “Covid Crash” and then help control the recovery. The current backdrop reminds me a bit of the 1942-1946 #QE cycle. Let’s take a look. (THREAD)
1/ After the Great Depression, the government went into high gear during WWII and, in the process, ran up huge government debt. Federal debt as a percent of #GDP jumped to 116% from 39% during the 1st half of the 1940s.
2/ Not only did the Fed monetize the debt by increasing its balance sheet 10-fold, it repressed the entire #yieldcurve by capping short rates at 3/8% & long rates at about 2.5%. #Inflation ran up but, with the #Fed repressing rates at low levels, real rates went negative.
Read 24 tweets
Another #tech bubble? There’s a lot of talk about the FANG mega-cap #growth companies leading the market, just like 2000. The #tech companies’ narrow leadership of the #SPX is a big reason perma-bears are hating on the #market. Right or wrong? Let’s take a closer look. (THREAD)
1/ In 1999 I did a deep dive on the top darling stocks to compare the lopsided leadership of the late 1990s to the early to mid-1970s. Earlier, during the 1960s, the cyclical #bullmarket from Oct. 1966 to Nov. 1968 produced a huge bubble in retail speculation.
2/ #Tech & space companies were big favorites. Then came the #recession of 1970 & a painful bear market that wiped out speculators. During that decline & recovery, institutional investors dominated the #stockmarket & were buying tried-and-true stocks with bulletproof #earnings.
Read 18 tweets
#MMT & #Inflation One more time for the people in the back (or without a search engine). #Thread
Read this @FTAlphaville piece by @stf18 @NathanTankus & @rohangrey: ftalphaville.ft.com/2019/03/01/155…
Here's my way of framing the conversation. 1/n
If you've been in a coma for the last 12 years, you need to catch up on your central banking a bit:
"Fed has no reliable theory of inflation, says Tarullo" on.ft.com/3hXmj5N
2/n
In other words, mainstream econ has no idea what causes inflation, let alone how to deal with it. #MMT does. As an MMTer, I am obsessed with the risk of #inflation. 3/n
Read 7 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 07/30/2020 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2020/07/30/dai…
Evolutionary origins of the SARS-CoV-2 sarbecovirus lineage responsible for the COVID-19 pandemic | Nature Microbiology

nature.com/articles/s4156…

#pandemic #evolutionary #origins #microbiology
Strike 1: Gold; Strike 2: Dollar; Strike 3: Inflation Expectations – Alhambra Investments

alhambrapartners.com/2020/07/28/str…

#inflation #gold #expectations #investments
Read 6 tweets
1/Thanks very much to my old friend @steve_sedgwick @SquawkBoxEurope for the chat this morning
2/We looked at #Growth v #Value, the #US v ROW, we touched on #bonds and borrowing, #money supply, #inflation, #lockdown, #commodities & #gold - all in under 10 mins!
3/If that was all a bit rushed, here follow the notes I sent to accompany our chat:-

#macro, #markets
Read 12 tweets
In a world where people still starve (though thankfully proportionately fewer over time) and material needs in general are unsated, there can be no #savingsglut. There CAN be misallocations of saving -due to corrupted price signals or corrupted polities, or both- but that’s...
...a very different matter.
Secondly, ‘saving’ is supposed to represent an available resource -whether for consumption or production, whether material or human. It is NOT something which magically appears when the #centralbank & its minions sit behind a keyboard...
If #JeromePowell or M #Lagarde cause a million smackers to appear in everyone’s account overnight, bank balances will have risen; #savings, will NOT. Even a man as unnuanced as Mussolini got this, sneering that Italians’ wealth would not rise if they all had more printed...
Read 13 tweets
China abandons GDP target for first time in decades. Historical decision, significance goes beyond current COVID-19 crisis. (1/5) #GDP #China #TwoSessions
bit.ly/2XqPG8a
Very wise to drop GDP target. Many, including Liu He, probably want to see it disappear permanently. But GDP target much more than a policy goal. GDP growth = foundation CCP's legitimacy for over 30 yrs. Scrapping 2020 target also affects CCPs long-term promises and goals.. (2/5)
What is next? Do GDP targets (including long term 2020-target) permanently disappear? Simply postpone achieving 'moderately prosperous society' for 1 year? Or further redefine this long-term goal? Shift to (more) environment, health, well-being targets? (3/5)
Read 5 tweets
#RBI cut by 40bps each of these👇
#Repo rate to 4%
#ReverseRepo to 3.35%
#BankRate to 4.25%

Decision was reached after 5:1 vote,with #ChetanGhate,lone voice calling for 25 bps cut

#MPC meet was held ahead of schedule from 3rd-5th,June

#EMI #moratoroum extended by 3 more months
Moratorium extension till 31st August 2020,is both timely &reflective of @narendramodi govt's alacrity--Big relief to #MiddleClass

Measure to convert #moratorium interest payment into #TermLoan payable in FY21,is helpful

This will reduce #NPAs &stress on banks' balance sheets
#RBI's cut in #Repo will reduce cost of funds&extension of #moratorium will be supportive of financial stability;#Rates across #YieldCurve will move lower from current levels

Fall in #ReverseRepo rate will disincentivise banks from #hoarding #liquidity&coax them to lend

#Covid
Read 10 tweets
"Last time we did money printing nothing happened"

Few people actually understand why we got away with it

1/ It was done at the same time China was undertaking massive infrastructure spending

2/Tech also held prices down

3/Globalisation was in full swing which is deflationary
All these factors have now broken down or reversed

Globalisation is now dead.

Talk is of restoring national production chains which is hugely inflationary (rebuilding the chain and doing it with a higher cost labour force).

Supply chains are also broken at both ends
We now have a supply shock and a demand shock

Tech offshoring manufacturing may have to be re-shored with the corresponding price increases. Tech startups can no longer burn cash indefinitely

What we are seeing in the commodities (particularly oil) is further reduction of CAPEX
Read 5 tweets
People trying to draw analogies with the #GreatDepression, wartime, or 70s stagflation are missing the point IMHO 1/x
GD was a ‘sudden-stop’ shock which ended the credit-boom lending to Weimar as the Young Plan looked in jeopardy. Made worse by politics (war debts, etc), #protectionism (Smoot-Hawley), Hoover call to maintain wage-rates, #FX chaos (esp. when Brits left #gold standard) 2/x
The initial slump & ‘secondary (financial vicious cycle) depression’ then perpetuated by #NewDeal boondoggle vote-buying, #FDR capriciousness, & Brain Trust cranks. This was much more a post-#GFC parallel than today’s #ContaminoBay #lockdown 3/x
Read 15 tweets
The thought occurred to me that not everyone outside NY NJ area is experiencing this, so thought Id warn ppl of what it may look like after
#coronavirus comes knocking... took these yesterday at Stop N Shop, slowly getting worse😬:
(Paper products, cleaning, frozen, perishables)
I am very suspicious as to why they just dont seem to be restocking certain things- where are toilet paper and paper towels made? Are there not supplies anywhere in the US? Wegmans finally got some in from Canada, but charging a mint! Wtf, what is holding up the US supply chain?!
Also $7.00 for 2 rolls of Bounty ppr towels when they finally got them in!!
#Inflation or #PriceGouging?
Read 3 tweets
"Theory tells us why Japan didn't inflate" Really? News to most! But two things may explain it - business made a big shift from heavily indebted to positive cash, mirrored by the state's plunge into the red, intermediated by the BOJ... 1/x
In effect, corporate debt was slowly washed to the government whose IOUs were bought by the #centralbank. Reserves issued v these offset bank deposit liabilities to the now flush businesses happy to hold them because #NIRP destroyed transaction/savings balance differences 2/x
Meanwhile, much of #Japan's newly created money was swapped up and used to finance speculative purchases elsewhere in the world - as shown for Grand Cayman 3/x
Read 7 tweets
Not to root for state or CB intervention, with #coronavirus, its inevitability must be faced. So how to make it the least damaging and not allow it to become entrenched in the system and lead to another decade of distortion & waste like post-#GFC? 1/x
Problem is to try to avoid the failure of otw viable firms because of disruptions due to the global health emergency - & also to spare their employees from ruin. Flooding money into financial markets is NOT the answer, #JayPowell! Blind fiscal expansion, neither, #DonaldTrump 2/x
Here's the kernel of an idea. Finmarkets are desperate for 'safe assets'. nominal yields are trifling; real ones negative. S-o-o, launch a special series of #Treasury bonds to sate the market's hunger & halt the potentially disastrous collapse in yields. 3/x
Read 11 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and the #Corona / #COVID19 #Virus. What is it doing to #Global #Energy #Demand & what does it mean for #OPEC?
On March 5th 2020, the Organisation of #Petroleum Exporting Countries #OPEC concluded its 178th Extraordinary meeting. Aside from Ecuador's withdrawal from OPEC, the #Oil #Cartel was hard pressed to fashion a response to the impact of #COVID19 on #Global oil #Demand...
It is no secret that the #global #oil #market is awash in oil. The glut in supply has seen, in the past, a collaboration of sorts between #OPEC & Non-OPEC (mainly #Russia) oil exporters to monitor supply & maintain output at "mutually profitable" levels...
Read 9 tweets
Ein paar Gedanken zu den ökonomischen Effekten von Corona / #Covid19, und was die Politik jetzt tun könnte, bzw. sollte. /thread
Die Unterscheidung #Angebot und Nachfrage ist hier nicht sehr hilfreich. Ja, es betrifft erstmal die Angebotsseite der Wirtschaft, aber es ist kein Öl-Schock, und es wird sehr schnell ein Nachfrageproblem draus. /1
Denn in einer nicht-linearen Welt haben auch temporäre Phänomene permanente Folgen. Firmen die #Pleite gehen, obwohl sie ohne #Corona profitabel wären; Menschen, die nicht arbeiten können, und Gehalt/Konsum verlieren etc. /2
Read 23 tweets
The #everythingbubble is in it’s first stage of popping. We expect sharp monetary and fiscal reactions to a slowing economy and eventually an overdose which brings inflation and finally the bursting of the debt bubble in a second stage:

A short thread.
In our @IGWTreport s we have been writing a lot about the #everythingbubble and various pins which may prick them. It seems, as if the #bubble finally found it’s needle last week.

Graph from IGWT Report 2017.
Last week’s market reaction priced in a highly deflationary scenario, which - all things being equal - seems quite rational as economic growth and velocity of money is plunging.
Read 7 tweets
#Deflation phase has started. Stocks will plummet in 5 waves down to ~1800 in #SP500. Wave 2 and 4 will be corrections. We have break of 200SMA and trendline from early 2019. I think we see a backtest of these (yellow area?). But - in general trend is down - and fast!
#USD #DXY is about to set off on a major move higher. The current correction is a wave 2 (blue) and hence next wave will take us to min. 103 - but more likely 106-107 in an impulsive move. Do not stand in front of the USD train coming months!
#EURUSD kissing 50SMA and pot. also 200SMA "Goodbye" - before turning down hard. Next wave will take down to - and likely below bottom from early 2017 - only for a short consolidation before EUR crash continues. LT-target remains ~0.85
Read 14 tweets
The 2.1% #GDP print gives "optical illusion" of an economy chugging along at moderate 2% clip at end-2019, but composition of growth reveals softer picture.

More than 70% of Q4 advance came from temporary collapse in imports, business investment subdued & consumers + cautious
Average 2.3% GDP advance in 2019 is marginally weaker than 2.4% print in 2017 but this is another optical illusion as most recent 3 Qs mark economy’s worst performance since the 2016 slump.
Even momentum headed into 2020 is softer than the 2.3% y/y print would indicate
Consumer spending only +1.8% in Q4 as households exercised more caution in the face of elevated policy uncertainty and moderating income growth.

In 2020, cooler employment trends and lower income growth prospects will lead consumers to gently rein in spending
Read 8 tweets
Let us talk about the #FED #FOMC's 1st #MonetaryPolicy meeting of 2020. Specifically, let us talk about the puzzle that is a flatter #PhillipsCurve...
The #FederalOpenMarketCommittee (#FOMC) of the #FederalReserveBank (#FED) of the #US concluded its 1st meeting of 2020 on the 29th January 2020. As expected, the FED did not change rates but left the #KeyPolicyRate, the #FederalFundsRate (#FFR) in the 1.5%-1.75% range...
Indeed, if one considers the #FED #Dotplot of December 2019, the decision to keep rates unchanged would not come as a surprise. What I wanted to focus on today is some key passages in the statement, highlighted in yellow in the screenshot below...its all #PhillipsCurve...
Read 17 tweets
Will #deflation be the end for business? Hardly. Deflation is only a problem for businesses in an inflationary economy. Sounds contradictory, but the point is that business is properly operated aimed toward (meeting or creating) the future--not to repeat but to *leverage* the
past. Entrepreneurs and managers continuously forecast and try to position their businesses with respect to the future market situation. In today's heavily distorted, #inflation-suffering markets, businesses have learned to anticipate that prices will continue to rise: buying
(factor, input) prices as well as selling (output) prices. This is more than simply relying on experience, which is a shaky foundation for predicting the future. In present markets, government through central planning of national currencies *promise* to *enforce* inflation. The
Read 7 tweets
Lets talk about how important it is to frequently #Review #CentralBank #MonetaryPolicy #Frameworks...
I will set things off by pointing out that the various facets of #BusinessCycles (early, mid, late / boom & busts) consistently keep reminding us that what goes up, must come down. We might find ourselves in a prolonged #expansion, but eventually it decelerates into a #recession
As part of #Macroeconomic management (counter cyclical), a #CentralBank's objective (through its #MonetaryPolicy) is to maintain #PriceStability & #FinancialStability & in other cases, to promote #FullEmployment. It does this hand in hand with #FiscalPolicy...
Read 15 tweets
Lets talk about #Oil and #Inflation and whether the relationship is #Linear or #NonLinear...
We have all been witness to the recent volatility in the #Global #Oil markets. We have seen how disruptions in oil #Supply, be it from #SaudiArabia, #Nigeria, #Venezuela, #Iran or #Libya can cause upticks in the global #Price of oil...
On the same token, we are aware how muted #oil #demand can arise from a slow down in #global #growth. For e.g. a persistent slowdown in #China often translates into a softening of global oil prices. Similarly, high #inventories & the impact of #US #shale drives down prices...
Read 9 tweets
A convo not too long about how Arkansas and Kansas happened ("Ar-Can-Saw" and "Kan-zas"), got me to thinking we don't talk nearly as much as we should about how names are used to erase histories. So sit back #NativeTwitter, lemme tell you about the #Caribbean.
First, Conquerors and Settlers frequently have no idea what they're talking about. That should be fairly obvious. It's why the Lakota are also "the Sioux" and the Lenape are also "The Deleware". It's all gibberish and nonsense when settler naming gets involved.
So it is with "Kansas" and "Arkansas". One's French and the other's Spanish/English for 'Land of the Kansa'. See, easy, two states, whose pronunciations were popularized by two different phonemic culture groups, and the same spelling suddenly gets all nonsensical.
Read 26 tweets
Let us briefly #Reflect on the #SARB's first #MPC #Meeting of 2020 and their #MonetaryPolicy decision to cut rates by 25bps from 6.5% to 6.25%...
Everyone with some interest in such matters is without a doubt already aware that the #SouthAfricanReserveBank's #MonetaryPolicyCommittee cut its key #PolicyRate, the #Repo by 25 basis points from 6.5% to 6.25%. The move can perhaps best be summarised by the following statement:
It is clear from the statement above that the SARB moved on the back of a growth story. They would want to see the level of #inflation creep closer to 4.5% but they didnt tighten to achieve this end. Rather, they provided more accommodation for growth & inflation might pick up...
Read 11 tweets

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