Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Inflation
Most recents (24)
[1/🧵] A short synopsis of Joachim Nagel's most recent speech on the future of #economic and #monetary union, presented and released by @OMFIF (@OMFIFDMI). 👇
[2/7] Joachim Nagel, a member of the @bundesbank's Executive Board, discusses:
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
🔸 #Inflation
🔸 #Monetary policy
🔸 #Fiscal development, ...
... among other topics.
[3/7] According to Nagel, the ongoing #energy #crisis in #Ukraine has resulted in:
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
🔸 Greater #inflation
🔸 Higher #energy prices ...
... influencing:
🔸 #Industrial costs
🔸 #Financial insecurity.
Starting 2-weeks ago #SVB, #CreditSuisse & a few other smaller US banks failed. Whilst this is yet to become a #FinancialCrisis on the scale of ’08, it is also not certain that such a crisis hasn’t already begun. Join us for a thread of the best analysis so far!
First up, let’s acknowledge last year's release of @stefeich's – The Currency of Politics, and this interview in @thenation prior to the SVB collapse. His work provides important background understanding on the nature of money, banking and monetary policy.
thenation.com/article/econom…
thenation.com/article/econom…
Wichtige Analyse zum Mythos der Lohn-Preis-Spirale: #Löhne sind moderat gestiegen und haben 2022 kaum zur #Inflation beigetragen, der starke Anstieg der #Gewinne der Unternehmen jedoch deutlich mehr — auch in der Industrie und energieintensiven Branchen.
ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…
Dieser Unterschied ist nochmals deutlich stärker, wenn man die Produktivität und andere Faktoren mit berücksichtigt und sich die Kostensteigerungen pro Stück anschaut.
Interessant: in der Industrie waren die Lohnsteigerungen 2022 gerade einmal so hoch wie die #Produktivität, der Preisanstieg wird ausschließlich durch höhere Gewinnmargen der Unternehmen erklärt.
🇺🇸 #Fed #Recession #Inflation | Lower tax refunds, uncertainty regarding the banking sector, upcoming tightening credit conditions and weather normalization should weigh on consumer spending from March ⚠ (1/8) ⬇
🇺🇸 According to latest IRS data, average refunds fell 11% YoY to $2,972 (after boosting spending earlier this year). This dynamic is expected to persist in the short term (2/8)
irs.gov/newsroom/filin…
irs.gov/newsroom/filin…
🇺🇸 Data released after turbulences in the banking sector also suggest consumers became cautious. Citi pointed out that its proprietary credit card data revealed a 10.3% ⬇ in spending in the week-ended 18-Mar., biggest ⬇ since the pandemic began (3/8)
Listen, they’re going to turn on the taps to full blast.
Fed balance sheet expanded greatly as you know.
Bank of Japan’s hit new record high after a slight decline.
Fed balance sheet expanded greatly as you know.
Bank of Japan’s hit new record high after a slight decline.
I can’t believe this is happening so soon. They didn’t even let any air out of this bubble.
You must understand how serious the risks are here.
You must understand how serious the risks are here.
Assets could hit obscene levels. Home prices doubling again. Stocks too. Gold, silver. Etc.
Everything could shatter records including food, energy, wages, as everything spirals out of control.
Everything could shatter records including food, energy, wages, as everything spirals out of control.
Gold attempting to BREAKOUT of its second BIGGEST yearly defined base versus SPX.
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Possible analog roadmaps with price & time targets.
8000$ in 2034
12000$ in 2033
21000$ in 2030
Overshoot on smaller time frames not included.
#gold #xauusd #spx #fintwit #inflation #recession
Ein 🧵 zur Einordnung zur Rolle der #Kommunen im Streit in den #Tarifverhandlungen im öffentlichen Dienst:
Ein vermeintlich starkes Argument ist, die Kommunen, und viele ihrer kommunalen Einrichtungen und Unternehmen, könnten deutliche Lohnerhöhungen nicht bezahlen. …
Ein vermeintlich starkes Argument ist, die Kommunen, und viele ihrer kommunalen Einrichtungen und Unternehmen, könnten deutliche Lohnerhöhungen nicht bezahlen. …
Es stimmt, dass viele Kommunen in einer schwierigen finanziellen Situation sind.
Aber, drei Argumente geben eine andere Perspektive:
1. 30 % der Kommunen in 🇩🇪 sind finanzschwach und überschuldet. Dies sind sie jedoch meist schon seit mehr als 20 Jahren, und dies hat nichts mit der gegenwärtigen Krise und den Mehrkosten für Energie und Geflüchtete zu tun.
1. 30 % der Kommunen in 🇩🇪 sind finanzschwach und überschuldet. Dies sind sie jedoch meist schon seit mehr als 20 Jahren, und dies hat nichts mit der gegenwärtigen Krise und den Mehrkosten für Energie und Geflüchtete zu tun.
Sind die höheren #Zinsausgaben der Bundesregierung ein Problem und sind sie ein legitimes Argument um Staatsausgaben zu kürzen?
Meine neue Kolumne @zeitonline:
zeit.de/wirtschaft/202…
Meine neue Kolumne @zeitonline:
zeit.de/wirtschaft/202…
BF Lindner weist zu Recht auf den starken Anstieg der Zinskosten hin. Betrugen diese Zinskosten 2021 noch € 3,9 Milliarden, so werden sie dieses Jahr mit fast € 42 Milliarden im Bundeshaushalt veranschlagt, das sind knapp 1% des BIP.
Aber drei Argumente werden häufig in der Diskussion ignoriert.
1. Die Zinskosten des Staats sind auch heute historisch gesehen ungewöhnlich gering. Außergewöhnlich waren vielmehr die letzten Jahre, da die Nominalzinsen ungewöhnlich niedrig waren.
1. Die Zinskosten des Staats sind auch heute historisch gesehen ungewöhnlich gering. Außergewöhnlich waren vielmehr die letzten Jahre, da die Nominalzinsen ungewöhnlich niedrig waren.
Thread
C'est une raison qui est rarement avancée dans les médias : l'aspect psychologique de l'#inflation qui se manifeste par une fuite devant la monnaie, qui s'auto-nourrit.
Une sorte de panique des thésauriseurs pour dépenser la monnaie stockée avant qu'elle ne vaille rien !
C'est une raison qui est rarement avancée dans les médias : l'aspect psychologique de l'#inflation qui se manifeste par une fuite devant la monnaie, qui s'auto-nourrit.
Une sorte de panique des thésauriseurs pour dépenser la monnaie stockée avant qu'elle ne vaille rien !
D'un côté les banquiers ont créé des montagnes de monnaie dont ils ont pu profiter ainsi que leurs clients pour acheter le monde à taux 0, voire négatif.
De l'autre, les thésauriseurs dont l'épargne ne rapporte plus d'intérêts et qui est grignotée par une inflation généralisée.
De l'autre, les thésauriseurs dont l'épargne ne rapporte plus d'intérêts et qui est grignotée par une inflation généralisée.
Encore une fois, le thésauriseur s'est fait arnaqué par le banquier, mais de manière plus ingénieuse cette fois : pas par un "bank run" car le système bancaire a su créer de la monnaie à l'infini, mais plutôt par une forte érosion de l'épargne monétaire.
Die #EZB musste selten eine so schwierige Entscheidung treffen wie heute — mit einer teuflisch schwierigen Abwägung zwischen #Preisstabilität und #Finanzstabilität. Die heutige Entscheidung ist riskant.
Mein Statement mit einem kurzen 🧵 :
diw.de/de/diw_01.c.86…
Mein Statement mit einem kurzen 🧵 :
diw.de/de/diw_01.c.86…
Zwar verpflichtet das Mandat die EZB primär, die #Preisstabilität sicherzustellen. Eine #Bankenkrise würde jedoch mittelfristig dieses Ziel noch weniger realistisch machen. Daher kann die EZB mit ihrer Geldpolitik die Probleme vieler Finanzinstitute nicht ignorieren.
Eine geringere Zinserhöhung von 25 Basispunkten wäre zwar die bessere geldpolitische Entscheidung gewesen. Dies hätten jedoch Investoren als ein Signal der Sorge um die Resilienz europäischer Banken verstehen und eine starke Korrektur in den Kapitalmärkten auslösen können …
@JPMorgan Says @FederalReserve Loans Will Provide $2 Trillion of Liquidity
Dat's another 10% on already overblown M1 supply.
Fer da #Retard(s), #Anon(s), #Pede(s), #Patriot(s) unfamiliar with the matter, that's how #QuantitativeEasing begins.
Dat's another 10% on already overblown M1 supply.
Fer da #Retard(s), #Anon(s), #Pede(s), #Patriot(s) unfamiliar with the matter, that's how #QuantitativeEasing begins.
Da @USTreasury set up da program earlier dis month following a collapse of three lenders with the aim of preventing a #FireSale of sovereign debt and now da @FederalReserve is hesitant to further increase rates which is very bad for inflation.
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Dis is da part where #Inflation really gets out of control #Fren(s)
#CentralBanks have limited tools, like interest rate reduction, to influence economic growth. Without the ability to lower rates further, central banks must strategically increase the supply of money.
#CentralBanks have limited tools, like interest rate reduction, to influence economic growth. Without the ability to lower rates further, central banks must strategically increase the supply of money.
(🧵1/5) No one can have an honest conversation about #propertytax relief without also talking about reducing spending. Texas collectively does not have a revenue problem, it has a spending problem. #txlege lawmakers should consider curtailing local government spending
(🧵2/5) #txlege lawmakers should support #HB2258 by State Rep @BriscoeCain which would impose a spending cap on counties/cities based on population & #inflation, just like the new spending cap on the state level.
(🧵3/5) #txlege lawmakers should support #HB2220 by State Rep. @brianeharrison which would lower the voter-approval tax rate to that of the No-New-Revenue tax rate, meaning if local govs. want to raise taxes even one cent, they should go to the voters.
A week ago, after hearing #ChairPowell’s testimony before Congress, all eyes were set to be on today’s #inflation data, which presumably would help market participants better understand the #FOMC’s policy reaction at its March 22nd meeting.
What a difference a week makes these days! Of course, all eyes are still on today’s data, but now there are many other things we need to consider (such as #FinancialStability concerns), when judging the reaction function of the @federalreserve.
As we have long contended, #markets tend to be fairly myopic and lacking in patience, so having to focus on more than one news item at a time causes tremendous #uncertainty and thus greater market #volatility.
The biggest banking collapse since 2008 explained. And how it will impact the crypto markets.
Thread 👇
Thread 👇
#SiliconValleyBank ('SVB') was the 16th biggest bank in the US.
Primarily servicing US technology startups.
Primarily servicing US technology startups.
During COVID, SVB massively benefited from the tech startup golden period.
In lockdown, tech companies did very well providing entertainment & delivery services.
These companies' excess cash was stored with SVB in the form of deposits.
In lockdown, tech companies did very well providing entertainment & delivery services.
These companies' excess cash was stored with SVB in the form of deposits.
"Make Canada Work for People Who've Done the Work" @PierrePoilievre who voted against #CERB shares a press release amending the budget that reflects zero compassion for low income earners and the #disabled
A re-elected Liberal government will:
Continue to ensure that secondary earners—mostly women—can exclude up to $14,000 of their working income when income-testing the #CanadaWorkersBenefit, so that families can receive up to $2,400.
canada.ca/en/revenue-age…
Continue to ensure that secondary earners—mostly women—can exclude up to $14,000 of their working income when income-testing the #CanadaWorkersBenefit, so that families can receive up to $2,400.
canada.ca/en/revenue-age…
1/2 You can read abut the Liberal Party Policies for disabled people at liberal.ca/our-platform/d… #CanadaDisabilityBenefitAct was unanimously adopted Febeuary 2, 2023 as a federal income supplement for working-age persons with disabilities.
This is a facile narrative that Poilievre keeps insisting, preferring an austerity budget that will only make the vulnerable even more precarious without government supports ... none of this will affect housing prices, because that is driven by a lack of supply
1/2 Conservatives advocate #taxcuts that fuel #inflation, reduced govt spending, free markets, #deregulation, #privatization, free trade, and minimal government debt. Those #regressiveeconomicpolicies instituted by the Harper govt led to #deficits
2/2 elimination and reduction of #environmentalprotectionregulations and #consumerprotectionregulations.
1· 🤔 On voit des enseignant·es faire cours les jours de #grève, organiser le #distanciel ou profiter des journées de #mobilisation pour avancer sur leur HDR : ne pensez-vous pas que nous avons quelques raisons de mettre l'#université et la #recherche à l'arrêt ?
🧶 à dérouler 👇
🧶 à dérouler 👇
2· ‼️ D'abord, il y a le saccage des #retraites, ces deux années de #travail que le gouvernement veut nous extorquer.
Personne n'est dupe : cette contre-réforme injuste et injustifiée aggravera les #inégalités, notamment entre femmes et hommes 🤬
Infos 👇
universiteouverte.org/2023/01/26/pou…
Personne n'est dupe : cette contre-réforme injuste et injustifiée aggravera les #inégalités, notamment entre femmes et hommes 🤬
Infos 👇
universiteouverte.org/2023/01/26/pou…
3· 😡 Cette réforme aggravera donc les inégalités entre travailleuses et travailleurs de l'#ESR, et elle aura des effets spécifiques pour des chercheur·ses dont la carrière a été marquée par la #précarisation et l'#internationalisation 😱
#StopPrécarité ✊
change.org/p/retraite-une…
#StopPrécarité ✊
change.org/p/retraite-une…
Highlights from the keynote address made by Mr. Deepak Bagla, Managing Director & CEO of Invest India at the Standard Chartered Treasury Leadership Forum 2023.
A thread! (1/n)
#India #economy #GDP #highlights #thread
A thread! (1/n)
#India #economy #GDP #highlights #thread
India is going through the most unprecedented transformation of human history in the free world today. (2/n)
#india #economy
#india #economy
This is the first time in the history of India’s 5000 years of existence, that the 3 pillars are going through a rapid transformation at the same point in time.
The 3 Pillars:
- Economic
- Social
- Political (3/n)
#india #economy #social #political
The 3 Pillars:
- Economic
- Social
- Political (3/n)
#india #economy #social #political
Bundesfinanzminister Lindner verschiebt die Vorlage für den Haushalt 2024:
"Die hohe #Zinslast ist ein klares Signal, die #Verschuldung des Staates zu bremsen".
Ist der Anstieg der Zinskosten für die Bundesregierung problematisch?
Ein 🧵 zur Einordnung:
zeit.de/politik/deutsc…
"Die hohe #Zinslast ist ein klares Signal, die #Verschuldung des Staates zu bremsen".
Ist der Anstieg der Zinskosten für die Bundesregierung problematisch?
Ein 🧵 zur Einordnung:
zeit.de/politik/deutsc…
Lindner weist zu Recht auf den starken Anstieg der Zinskosten hin. Betrugen diese Zinskosten 2021 noch € 3,9 Milliarden, so werden sie dieses Jahr mit fast € 42 Milliarden im Bundeshaushalt veranschlagt, das sind knapp 1% des BIP.
Aber drei Argumente werden häufig ignoriert.
1. Die Zinskosten sind historisch ungewöhnlich gering. Außergewöhnlich waren vielmehr die letzten Jahre, da die Nominalzinsen so niedrig waren. (Der Schuldendienst betrug 2021 nur €3,9 Mrd,oder 0,7% aller Ausgaben im Bundeshaushalt!)
1. Die Zinskosten sind historisch ungewöhnlich gering. Außergewöhnlich waren vielmehr die letzten Jahre, da die Nominalzinsen so niedrig waren. (Der Schuldendienst betrug 2021 nur €3,9 Mrd,oder 0,7% aller Ausgaben im Bundeshaushalt!)
Here is this Week’s Market Wrap
'Banking on a Collapse' written by @shyamsek
A Thread (1/n)
#Banking #SiliconValleyBank #SVBCollapse #marketwrap
'Banking on a Collapse' written by @shyamsek
A Thread (1/n)
#Banking #SiliconValleyBank #SVBCollapse #marketwrap
One week is a long time in global banking. Or, so it seems if one goes by the latest inflation and interest rate commentary of the federal reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. (2/n)
#banking #inflation #interestrates
#banking #inflation #interestrates
The Silicon Valley bank collapse has almost caused a setting for a rapid reset of the interest rate trajectory in the US. (3/n)
#SiliconValleyBank #SVBCollapse #interestrates
#SiliconValleyBank #SVBCollapse #interestrates
1/2 A growing number of folks realize that California is where they get their produce from & it's been slammed by forest fires, floods, etc. so they are going to grow their own veggies this year and escape the high prices in the grocery chain stores.
2/2 An estimated two-thirds of all produce consumed in Canada is imported from the U.S. accounting for approximately 37% of Canada's fresh fruit imports in 2021. California exported $4.8 Billion to Canada, including: $1.7B in fruits and nuts & $203M in vegetables and roots.
I live on a Gulf Island where the best weather conditions found in Canada are found so I purchase FRESH produce from organic farmers at farm gates and at Farmer's Markets twice weekly. Hubby also grows some of our veggies.
Are you now or will you be growing your own produce?
Are you now or will you be growing your own produce?
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻💰
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
Macro Review 03/10/23
🧵 1/8
The #Kraken may have been unleashed on financial markets this week with volatility up across asset classes.
Let’s dig into the critical 🧮 from the week!
© Adobe Stock
2a/8
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
After a week of reflation and my #CrashRiskRising call from 02/26/23, Jay Powell stepped up to the plate and told us “dot plot going higher.”
The UST2Y ripped, the curve inverted further, and the MOVE ↗️
Chart: MOVE index 140.06
2b/8
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
After two days of Powell chatting with Congress, the UST 2Y accelerated to 5.05%, a multi-year high, before crashing hard on the SVB news.
Chart: $UST2Y with -1.6 STD move in 2 days
🧵 SVB BANK FAILURE; A simplified explanation.
The ways in which financial institutions make $ is more complex than what I am describing in this thread. I’m going to over-simplify, but I ask that you RT, even if you already knew this. Your followers may not. #SVB 👉🏻
The ways in which financial institutions make $ is more complex than what I am describing in this thread. I’m going to over-simplify, but I ask that you RT, even if you already knew this. Your followers may not. #SVB 👉🏻
2/We have been suffering from the consequences of Progressive Monetary Policy (Modern Monetary Theory, to be specific). I will not go into great detail, but we have arrived at the ‘crushing the middle class’ part of this experience. Many of you may fall into poverty 👉🏻
3/Government overspending has increased the debt. They have printed money to pay the debt. This devalues the dollars you are holding (or earning). What are your dollars worth now; 70 or 80% of their buying power in 2020? That’s called $8/carton eggs and $4/gal gas. #inflation 👉🏻
Giving workers modest sums to prevent them from starving during the lockdowns enraged #inflation hawks, who insist that improvements to workers' material lives will transform America into an amateur Weimar revival, with wheelbarrows of useless bank-notes. 1/
If you'd like an essay-formatted version of this thread to read or share, here's a link to it on pluralistic.net, my surveillance-free, ad-free, tracker-free blog:
pluralistic.net/2023/03/11/pri… 2/
pluralistic.net/2023/03/11/pri… 2/
"Democrats" like Larry Summers - a Clintonite ghoul who is on record as saying that women are biologically incapable of doing science - insisted that preserving workers' living standards was a terrible mistake. 3/
