Thread by @trevortombe

Today's COVID vaccination update:

- Total shots given: 15,325,183
- Shots per 100 people: 40.3
- Shots reported today *: 400,489 (new record!)
- Inventory: 10.4 days (at avg pace)
- Adults w/ 1+ Shots: 44.7%

Source: covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

* Note: Doesn't include NL.

Canada is now up to 15.3 million shots given -- which is 84.4% of the total 18.2 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,150,110 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 1.2 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's pace of vaccination:

Today's 400,489 shots given compares to an average of 272,141/day over the past week and 270,466/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 285,526
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Oct 07

Based on the share of people with 1 or more doses (a weaker threshold), at Canada's current pace we reach 50% by May and 75% by July 2021. We reach 75% of *adults only* (age 16+) by June 14.

Gray lines are past projections. This illustrates the extent of recent changes.

Recent modeling suggests health rules may be safely eased once 75% of adults have at least one dose and 20% have two canada.ca/content/dam/ph…

This requires ~30M shots. We're on pace for that by June 29.

But deliveries are accelerating. If shots keep up, could be mid-June

Of course, some age groups have significant vaccine coverage.

- Of those 80+, 89.1% have at least one dose and 16.5% have two.
- Those 70-79, it's 86.9% and 5.3%
- Those 60-69, 71.1% and 2.3%

Note: this data is heavily delayed.

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 118 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: NS at 36

- Highest share of delivered doses used: SK with 91%
- Lowest: NU with 66%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 63% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 38% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 55%
- Fewest Vaccinated: PE at 31%

How does Canada compare to others? Currently, Canada ranks 6th out of 37 OECD countries in terms of the share of the population that is at least partially vaccinated. In terms of total doses per 100, Canada is 8th.

Source: ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinat…

Canada/US comparison:

- Highest Prov: QC, 39.6% of pop w/ at least one dose
- Lowest Prov: PE, 30.7
- Highest State: VT, 59.5
- Lowest State: MS, 31.8

- Top CDN Terr: YT, 62.8
- Top US Terr: PW, 72.4

Sources: covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tra… and covid19tracker.ca/vaccinationtra…

At Canada's latest 7-day avg daily pace, the share of people w/ 1 or more doses rises by 0.67% per day. The US rises by 0.24% per day.

- Projected out, we reach 75% 68 days before the US.
- We match the US share in 19 days.
- Reaching the current US share takes 12 days.

And by request, here's a comparison to the UK! They rise by 0.18% per day.

- Projected out, we reach 75% 76 days before the UK.
- We match the UK share in 29 days.
- Reaching the current UK share takes 22 days.

But that's 1+ doses, here's a comparison of daily shots given per 100 people. In Canada, this rises by 0.72 per day. The US rises by 0.63 per day.

- Projected out, we reach 100 doses 46 days after the US.
- Reaching the current US rate takes 51 days.

Finally, here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Going forward, all visualizations and analysis in this thread -- and more! -- will be stored on a website (updated continuously) here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/ (work in progress; comments welcome!)

Hats off to @ArynToombs for the idea to use Github Pages.

@ArynToombs And nerd aside: this was super fun to learn more about Github Pages! The same R-code that generates the twitter thread updates the entire website with zero additional effort on my part! Zero marginal cost. And it's a free service.

Combined w/ Github Actions, this whole thing is just me pressing *one* button.

Lots of value in learning coding skills (very useful for research projects!) and it's an enjoyable hobby 🤓📊🥳

But @covid_canada compiles the actual data. Support them here: ko-fi.com/covid19tracker…