This chart is fascinating. Some school mitigation measures actually helped reduce covid and some made it worse. Not necessarily the ones you'd think of either. Masks? Teachers needed them, but not students. Plexi-shield? Prevented ventilation and made it worse. Extracurriculars?
My theory on extracurriculars - though based anecdotally - is that the danger was with carpools and, occasionally, locker rooms. But actual sports - even indoor close contact sports like wrestling? Not much of a risk. Oh, and part-time instruction? Doesn't help at all.
I'm also surprised that temperature/symptom checks had so much positive effect. I had thought those were mostly theater. But I guess a lot of MS and HS students weren't telling parents of symptoms and were prevented from in-school spread thanks to these monitors.
Also, a thing about cloth masks. Of course they don't prevent all aerosolized viral particles from getting out or coming in. But they do seem to prevent *some* particles from transmitting (both directions). Thus they lower viral load. So they are not an all-or-nothing solution.
And then there are the vaccines, which are extremely effective at stopping both symptomatic disease and viral transmission. With 12-15s about to be approved for vax, there is no reason MS and HS cannot operate 100% normal in the Fall.
Since teachers are likelier to spread virus to students than students are to each other (bc teachers talk the most/loudest and emit virus), schools will probably start mandating vaccines for teachers as soon as full FDA approval kicks in. And for all grade levels.

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More from @AstorAaron

10 May
If you really want to know what happened in the 2020 election, don't look at exit polls. They were crap. Instead, look at this. It's the most accurate account of both the 2016 and 2020 elections. catalist.us/wh-national/
It's easy to miss the forest for the trees. For example, Latino vote preferences shifted a bit toward Trump compared to 2016. But massive increases in Latino turnout - where Latinos still voted Dem 61-37 - meant the net vote effect was to help Dems. Even more true with AAPI.
Of course, this could vary by region. And it also can upset pre-election predictions based on expected vote share. The Latino shift in the Rio Grande Valley was much greater than other places - & turnout didn't undermine it. Without it, TX would have been a bit closer.
Read 7 tweets
10 May
This question of "accepting the victory" is a complicated one that can't really be captured by polling. It's often that large numbers of supporters of the losing party don't "accept the victory" of the winning candidate. What really matters is how they understand and express it.
This gets to the process of legitimacy in any constitutional democracy. Complaining about "rigged" American elections is as old the Republic. But there's a difference between believing "we wuz robbed!" and actively undermining the process of legitimizing the election.
And even that latter point has degrees to it. One can investigate a fishy election or cite various irregularities that taint the winner's election. But that's a far cry from literally stopping an election count or trying to push the losing candidate into office.
Read 6 tweets
9 May
Returning to full 100% in-person schooling - like other aspects of life - will not be easy because of the economic, familial and psychological adjustments made during the pandemic. But it really has to happen by the end of summer.

nytimes.com/2021/05/09/us/…
Hybrid education doesn't work for anybody. At any level. It's certainly true that virtual instruction works best for some. But far more people are hurt by it (compared to in-person) than helped. If districts need to set up full stand-alone virtual academies then so be it.
But those should be treated as permanent alternative school options for a small group of students, with a process in place to determine that it is, in fact, the best schooling option to serve their educational needs. For others, it should not be an option.
Read 6 tweets
9 May
This list is interesting. It's the top sub-national administrative divisions in the world by population. Uttar Pradesh is #1 with 220 million people, followed by Maharashtra and Bihar in India. Meanwhile, England is 21st and California is 34th Image
Correction: Uttar Pradesh has 230 million people. Here it is. Image
Uttar Pradesh is ~93 thousand square miles, a tad smaller than Oregon (96 thousand sq mi). It has 2,473 people per square mile, twice as dense as New Jersey.
Read 5 tweets
3 May
This is good. People need to figure out for themselves how to "re-enter" the normal world. Doing something you haven't done in 14 months - just for a bit - will make you feel more comfortable doing it a bit more. If you're vaccinated, getting used to normal again is healthy.
So much of this depends on where you live and what you've been comfortable with up to now. I've seen two completely different worlds on this up close - East TN and NYC. And yet, in both cases, people established their own comfort levels apart from true 2019-level normal.
Don't worry about sunk costs and prior arguments about what was safe before vaccines, or about what others will think. But venture out a bit more. Dip the toe in the water. Officials need to lift the requirements (which even NYC is about to do) and let people adjust on their own.
Read 8 tweets
3 May
True "herd immunity" where the virus literally disappears is impossible. Israel still has a trickle of cases each day. But an endemic virus where most people are vaccinated is very different than a pandemic where most people are vulnerable to at least moderate illness.
I think we will see major regional variation going forward. It will start to reflect vaccination rates, but it will still be subject to seasonal changes. So low-vax areas in the South won't get many cases until summer when people congregate indoors in the AC. Like last July.
Whether those regional flare-ups will affect local hospital resources remains to be seen. My guess is that even vax hesitant areas will end up ok on that front bc the most vulnerable will be the most likely to vaccinate, though there will definitely be more unnecessary deaths.
Read 4 tweets

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