If you really want to know what happened in the 2020 election, don't look at exit polls. They were crap. Instead, look at this. It's the most accurate account of both the 2016 and 2020 elections. catalist.us/wh-national/
It's easy to miss the forest for the trees. For example, Latino vote preferences shifted a bit toward Trump compared to 2016. But massive increases in Latino turnout - where Latinos still voted Dem 61-37 - meant the net vote effect was to help Dems. Even more true with AAPI.
Of course, this could vary by region. And it also can upset pre-election predictions based on expected vote share. The Latino shift in the Rio Grande Valley was much greater than other places - & turnout didn't undermine it. Without it, TX would have been a bit closer.
Same with Florida - the Hispanic D->R shift and turnout increase was significant enough to matter statewide. But outside those states, the general D->R shift was undermined by larger Hispanic turnout.
The bigger story is this: Whites decreased a bit as a portion of the electorate, non-college whites especially. But Biden also improved his vote share among both college and non-college whites.
Even with a more diverse electorate, it was Dem improvement among white voters that made the difference. Trump couldn't afford white losses because the Trump coalition was much more homogeneous - 85% of Trump voters were white, compared to 61% of Biden voters who were white.
Another key finding: 3rd party support dropped from 2016 to 2020 and it benefitted Biden. But it especially benefitted Biden among the 30-44 age cohort (5 point drop in 3rd party vote - 4 pts to Biden and 1 pt to Trump) and the 65+.

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More from @AstorAaron

10 May
This has been a problem with all the "labor shortage" reporting. Every single quote is from an employer seeking workers, with lots of "theories" to explain hiring troubles. Naturally, "too much UI" is the excuse. But NO quotes from actual unemployed workers. Terrible journalism.
I mean, if the prevailing theory is that unemployed workers are just sitting back and collecting UI bc it pays more than any job, how about going out and finding somebody who says that that is what they are doing? People have admitted far more embarrassing things to reporters.
FWIW, I think there are multiple forces at work, and extended UI is probably one of them for some people. But considering the huge gender breakdown in job gains/losses in April, it's likely that childcare issues are part of it. And maybe it's connected to covid restrictions.
Read 4 tweets
10 May
These maps of WV and GA show that the only parts of Appalachia growing in population are retiree/recreation areas, urban/suburban, and university counties. Coal counties hemorrhaging population. Similar story would hold for Appalachian parts of PA, OH, KY, MD, VA, TN, NC, AL.
None of that should be surprising. It holds true for all of rural America, Appalachian or not. And in some Appalachian urban/suburban counties (Kanawha, Cabell), the pattern looks more like the Midwestern Rust Belt, with ongoing population losses.
Politically, these Appalachian retirement counties are more like 2012 Romney voters than anything else. They also show up as higher vaccination counties, esp. for 65+. Check out Loudon County, TN with Tellico Village retirees from the Midwest v. McMinn County next door.
Read 4 tweets
10 May
This question of "accepting the victory" is a complicated one that can't really be captured by polling. It's often that large numbers of supporters of the losing party don't "accept the victory" of the winning candidate. What really matters is how they understand and express it.
This gets to the process of legitimacy in any constitutional democracy. Complaining about "rigged" American elections is as old the Republic. But there's a difference between believing "we wuz robbed!" and actively undermining the process of legitimizing the election.
And even that latter point has degrees to it. One can investigate a fishy election or cite various irregularities that taint the winner's election. But that's a far cry from literally stopping an election count or trying to push the losing candidate into office.
Read 6 tweets
9 May
Returning to full 100% in-person schooling - like other aspects of life - will not be easy because of the economic, familial and psychological adjustments made during the pandemic. But it really has to happen by the end of summer.

nytimes.com/2021/05/09/us/…
Hybrid education doesn't work for anybody. At any level. It's certainly true that virtual instruction works best for some. But far more people are hurt by it (compared to in-person) than helped. If districts need to set up full stand-alone virtual academies then so be it.
But those should be treated as permanent alternative school options for a small group of students, with a process in place to determine that it is, in fact, the best schooling option to serve their educational needs. For others, it should not be an option.
Read 6 tweets
9 May
This list is interesting. It's the top sub-national administrative divisions in the world by population. Uttar Pradesh is #1 with 220 million people, followed by Maharashtra and Bihar in India. Meanwhile, England is 21st and California is 34th Image
Correction: Uttar Pradesh has 230 million people. Here it is. Image
Uttar Pradesh is ~93 thousand square miles, a tad smaller than Oregon (96 thousand sq mi). It has 2,473 people per square mile, twice as dense as New Jersey.
Read 5 tweets
8 May
This chart is fascinating. Some school mitigation measures actually helped reduce covid and some made it worse. Not necessarily the ones you'd think of either. Masks? Teachers needed them, but not students. Plexi-shield? Prevented ventilation and made it worse. Extracurriculars?
My theory on extracurriculars - though based anecdotally - is that the danger was with carpools and, occasionally, locker rooms. But actual sports - even indoor close contact sports like wrestling? Not much of a risk. Oh, and part-time instruction? Doesn't help at all.
I'm also surprised that temperature/symptom checks had so much positive effect. I had thought those were mostly theater. But I guess a lot of MS and HS students weren't telling parents of symptoms and were prevented from in-school spread thanks to these monitors.
Read 6 tweets

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