1/ $IAC/ $ANGI 1Q’21 Update

“The IAC Way pairs scrappiness and big ambition with the rational patience of permanent capital.”

Joey Levin is an excellent communicator. Another young CEO in early 40s who can work for shareholders hopefully for decades.

Here are my notes.
2/ “Whatever the relative point of reference: we’re back where we need to be: building”

16% CAGR since 1995 is an awesome track record in the public markets. That’s ~4x of S&P 500 over the same period.
3/ Vimeo

“Vimeo became part of IAC in 2006 through the $26 million acquisition of Connected Ventures, a collection of businesses whose main attraction for IAC was a business called College Humor.”

Incredible story on the early years of Vimeo.
4/ “Nearly every stat we laid out in 2017 to rationalize the strategy shift has doubled and continues to increase”
5/ $ANGI

Fixed price is now ~$250 mn run-rate business (vs $160 mn in 2020). This is probably the most interesting chart on ANGI which shows why the fixed price model is of paramount importance.

See the second image to understand what the chart shows.
6/ ANGI will invest quite heavily on fixed price model.

I like the honesty when Joey said “slightly scary”

Although I’m long, I continue to think ANGI’s success is far from guaranteed, but risk-reward seems lucrative.

My deep dive here (paywall): mbi-deepdives.com/angi/
7/ I understand and agree with the rationale of focus of one brand: ANGI, but I wonder whether a completely new brand would be a better option here.

If anything, ANGI brand may not have the most positive connotation in the market.
8/ ANGI is going to focus on 2 things: get the job done for the customers, and help the pros to grow their business.

Oisin Hanrahan, ANGI’s new CEO in his 30s, sounds more focused and methodical. It’s a difficult business, so the execution needs to be really top-notch.
9/ ANGI is eyeing on absolute EBITDA dollars, and not trying to protect margins.
10/ ANGI payments is already doing $100 mn run rate. Pros that use payments have much higher retention.

Really strange thing is in many cases Pros are doing customer acquisition for ANGI.
11/ When customers use the app, the data is really mind boggling. They basically do all of their home related jobs via ANGI.

If they can just get this going, oh boy… (again, not an easy business)
12/ Dotdash

It is probably the most exciting business in IAC post-Vimeo spin-off.

“Advertisers now put a premium on high quality, safe content that connects them directly with a contextual user need, and have realized that “promoted content” is neither promoted nor content.”
13/ In post-IDFA world, Dotdash can possibly accelerate its growth.

The setup looks pretty good for them. Expect more investments into content. I endorse.
14/ Care dot com

Care@work is growing 100% YoY. Nothing significant now, but long-term ambition seems much bigger.
15/ “We don't have to buy things at low multiples. We have to buy things where we have a very clear vision for a very large future, and that can exist in any market.”

Preach.
16/ Levin says, Lumber is no $MGM, bro (paraphrasing) 😉

Monthly metrics attached here (second image)
End/ I’ll publish my deep dive on $OTIS Tuesday next week.

Subscribe here: mbi-deepdives.com/plans/subscrib…

All my twitter threads can be found here: mbi-deepdives.com/twitter-thread…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mostly Borrowed Ideas

Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @borrowed_ideas

6 May
1/ Just added on $ETSY. My avg. cost increased from $114 to $122

A few questions that I received:
2/ Q1: How can $AMZN guide 24-30% growth when Etsy guided 5-15% GMS growth?

Four counter points.

I. Let’s look at apple to apple as much as possible. AMZN’s guide was on revenue. Etsy’s revenue guide is 15-25%.
3/
II. If we exclude masks from last year’s GMS and if Etsy does the high end of guidance next quarter ($3.1 Bn GMS), GMS growth is 32% YoY, not 15%.

III. AMZN moved its Prime day from Q4 last year to Q2 this year which would bump ~5-6% topline growth YoY.
Read 9 tweets
6 May
1/ $ETSY 1Q’21 Update

From 2016-2018, Etsy added 10.9 mn active buyers to its marketplace.

In the first three months of 2021 (AFTER the pandemic-fueled holiday season), Etsy added 8.8 mn active buyers *QoQ*.

Pre, and post-pandemic Etsy are truly a different marketplace.
2/ While the market seems to be focused on YoY numbers, the underlying strength of the marketplace is actually better understood by QoQ numbers.

We usually don’t look at QoQ numbers, but given we are anything but a normal comp, QoQ numbers can depict an interesting narrative.
3/ So what do I see?

I see 1Q’20 (so, pre-pandemic) was down 18% QoQ whereas 1Q’21 was down 13% QoQ.

Here’s how many active sellers have been added (again, QoQ) in the last 6 quarters:
4Q’19: 107k
1Q’20: 115K
2Q’20: 326K
3Q’20: 541K
4Q’20: 684K
1Q:21: 337K
Read 19 tweets
5 May
1/6 I know divorce is topical, but this good piece by @NeckarValue goes beyond that, especially for finance/investment professionals.

neckar.substack.com/p/divorce-deni…
2/6 Like most things in life, I have come to the conclusion that good marriage is part luck, and part skill.

It's very easy for happy couples to pat them on their back, but let's imagine a situation (it'll help if you don't believe in ideas such as "soul mates").
3/ If there were 10 different parallel universe and you would get married to different person in each of those universe, how many of those marriages do you think would end up in divorce?

If you're very skilled in relationship management, your probability of divorce would be low
Read 6 tweets
30 Apr
1/ $AMZN 1Q’21 Update

By now, it is no surprise that Amazon would post another Amazing quarter, but the growth/margin in international (+60%) and ads/other (+77%) still raised my eyebrows.

Let’s look at segment by segment and some highlights from the call.
2/ But first here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)

The real surprise was how international operating margin increased from -2.6% in 1Q’20 to +4.1% in 1Q’21. That’s +670 bps margin improvement vs NA’s +260 bps during the same time.
3/ One of my concerns was whether Amazon can mimic its success in NA to international markets as well.

Looking at the operating leverage and the pace of improvement, this looks much better than I anticipated.
Read 12 tweets
29 Apr
1/ $FB 1Q'21 Update

I have been told “nobody uses Facebook”.
Last quarter, 1.88 Bn “nobody” used Facebook daily.

Lots of interesting data points and snippets on this call. Here are my notes.
2/ Numbers in this quarter was a thing of beauty (perhaps applies to all big tech). They are making quite a mockery of “law of large numbers”.

FB’s 2016 *annual* topline was $27 Bn. Wow!

Acceleration in VR (other)+ overall revenue growth+ operating leverage make you drool.
3/ DAU +8% YoY; MAU +10%; Family DAP +15%
# of impressions +12%, avg price/ad +30%

Zuck highlighted three topics on the call:
I. AR/VR
II. Social Commerce
III. Creator Economy
Read 16 tweets
28 Apr
1/ Thread: $SHOP 1Q’21 Update

Shopify is a special company trying to solve the ABC of commerce on the internet for everyone. And it is run by deeply competent leader(s).

I’m not a shareholder, so it must be true.

Here are my highlights from the latest quarter.
2/ “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”-Bill Gates

Merchants generated $307B, and its partners made $12B. SHOP’s revenue in 2020 was $2.9B. Like I said, it’s a special company.
3/ Both GMV and revenue more than doubled as broader e-commerce penetration remains elevated.

Subscription Solution +71% YoY
Merchant solution +137% YoY
Gross Payments Volume (GPV) 46% of GMV (vs 42% in 1Q’21)
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(