Shopify is a special company trying to solve the ABC of commerce on the internet for everyone. And it is run by deeply competent leader(s).
I’m not a shareholder, so it must be true.
Here are my highlights from the latest quarter.
2/ “A platform is when the economic value of everybody that uses it, exceeds the value of the company that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”-Bill Gates
Merchants generated $307B, and its partners made $12B. SHOP’s revenue in 2020 was $2.9B. Like I said, it’s a special company.
3/ Both GMV and revenue more than doubled as broader e-commerce penetration remains elevated.
Subscription Solution +71% YoY
Merchant solution +137% YoY
Gross Payments Volume (GPV) 46% of GMV (vs 42% in 1Q’21)
4/ As mentioned in my recent deep dive, take rates remain the bigger piece of the puzzle to make the stock work in the long term.
Unless take rates ramp up 2-3x of what it is today in 10 years, it can be difficult to make sense of the current stock price.
5/ Okay, back to Shopify adulation.
“The number of shops actively selling on Facebook shops has more than quadrupled since Q1 a year ago as well as the GMV through Facebook.” 😍😍
Also, partnership with Tiktok and Pinterest.
6/ “More merchants join our fulfillment network in Q1, and we fulfilled similar volumes as in Q4”
“In 1Q'21, we funded over $300 million to our merchants, up 90% year-over-year”
“It took 4 years to fund the first $1 billion and just 1 quarter of that time to fund the second.”
7/ On Shop app:
“At the end of Q1 2021, Shop had more than 107 million registered users, including buyers using Shop Pay as well as the Shop App, of which more than 24 million were Monthly Active Users.”
8/ Outlook: Despite significant consensus beat, SHOP maintained its outlook because of different variables continue to be at play.
9/ However, SHOP played down the role of stimulus during the call, highlighting how international has outpaced US growth.
10/ Will e-commerce penetration take a backseat once things open up?
If Australia and NZ is any guide, the answer is no. Don’t expect any surge in e-commerce, but penetration is likely to remain elevated.
11/ Here’s my deep dive on $SHOP that I published this month (paywall): mbi-deepdives.com/shop/
End/ I will cover $FB earnings tonight. Expect a thread by 10-11 pm ET.
By now, it is no surprise that Amazon would post another Amazing quarter, but the growth/margin in international (+60%) and ads/other (+77%) still raised my eyebrows.
Let’s look at segment by segment and some highlights from the call.
2/ But first here’s the breakdown of revenue by segment (both product and geography)
The real surprise was how international operating margin increased from -2.6% in 1Q’20 to +4.1% in 1Q’21. That’s +670 bps margin improvement vs NA’s +260 bps during the same time.
3/ One of my concerns was whether Amazon can mimic its success in NA to international markets as well.
Looking at the operating leverage and the pace of improvement, this looks much better than I anticipated.
If Ben Graham popularized "value investing", Phil Fisher was the OG of "growth investing". Buffett even characterized his philosophy as "85% Graham and 15% Fisher".
Just read a good piece on Fisher. Some quick notes.
2/8 Here's how Fisher defined "growth company". The last point really stands out:
"the advantage cannot be meaningfully gauged with numbers and mathematical formulas."
3/8 "no investment philosophy, unless it is just a carbon copy of someone else’s approach, develops in its complete form in any day or year. In my own case, it grew over a considerable period of time"
This is Bezos' last letter as CEO of Amazon. I have been saying this for a while: Buffett and Bezos are two best business writers of our time.
It truly is a fitting letter to end Bezos' tenure. Here are my highlights.
2/ "...more than 7/8ths of the shares, representing $1.4 trillion of wealth creation, are owned by others. Who are they? ...they’re Mary and Larry, who sent me this note out of the blue just as I was sitting down to write this shareholder letter"
3/ One of the best arguments in favor of capitalism is this opportunity for Mary and Larry to participate in the wealth creation machine by an inventive, ambitious, and motivated strangers.
It's not just family office and hedge funds. Let's not forget the "Mary and Larry".
1/ Thread: Market-Expected Return on Investment (MEROI)
@mjmauboussin and Dan Callahan published their new piece today on MEROI. Regular followers know I'm a big fan of Mauboussin and a big believer of expectations investing approach.
Let's dig into the new piece.
2/ A company's valuation is just sum of two things:
Steady-State Value (SSV) + Present Value of Growth Opportunities (PVGO)
SSV = NOPAT capitalized by Cost of Capital
PVGO depends on three things...
3/
a. the spread between ROIC and Cost of Capital
b. how much a company can invest
c. how long a company can find value-creating opportunities
Calculating SSV is more straight forward, but PVGO is quite tricky and is riddled with many assumptions/forecasts.