Thread by @shaunjlawson

Thinking about Boris Johnson's success - and like it or not, as a politician (but certainly not as a Prime Minister), he's a quite massive success - prompts me to write something about human nature.

You see: we all *assume* that we want honest, trustworthy, dignified leaders.

Just as we all *assume* that we want honest, trustworthy, socially responsible corporate CEOs.

But we don't get them. And something about human nature indulges this for some reason. Especially when it comes to politics.

John Major, Gordon Brown, Ed Miliband and Jeremy Corbyn are all profoundly decent, honest people. All four got walloped at the ballot box.

Tony Blair, David Cameron and Boris Johnson are anything but honest. All three succeeded at the ballot box.

So... why is that?

A lot of it is conditioning - what people imagine a PM in a 24/7 media age looks like. If FDR were running for President, or Churchill for PM, both would have a massive problem now. The former because he was in a wheelchair; the latter because of his depression and alcoholism.

That's absurd... but it's also reality. Snake oil salesmen - about as honest as estate agents - aren't just what the public expects, but even who they vote for.

And yet... think back to when you were at school. Was there a class clown who got away with murder because the teacher thought they were funny?

Do you have a sibling who constantly got away with avoiding the chores while you didn't?

Do you know someone who treated women like dirt yet always had suitors regardless?

Some people in life just *get away with it*. And that they don't care (or appear not to, at least) what everyone else thinks actually makes them MORE attractive to many, not less.

Johnson is a whole new leap in that bizarre direction. It's like the whole country is playing a game of Shag/Marry/Kill... but choosing the one they'd like to shag for the highest office in the land.

Crazy - and absolutely, a consequence of neoliberalism and a 'me me me' culture

But within that culture, like Jeff Bezos, Bill Gates, Michael O'Leary or Tim Martin, he's a winner. It shouldn't be that way, but it is. He takes whatever he wants.

So he gets credit for Brexit - because he was its figurehead, and he saw it through. He 'won'.

He gets credit for the UK vaccine rollout having been so much faster than the EU one.

He even gets credit for that absurd, disgraceful nonsense against the French on Thursday.

He's a 'winner'. He does what he wants and he gets what he wants.

Then look at the corruption. Tens of billions for his mates.

Don't underestimate how much of the public *knows* he's corrupt, a philanderer, a compulsive liar. But it's a losing attack line for Labour, for two reasons.

1. The public will shrug and say "so what's new? And besides: the country's being vaccinated and most of us are looking forward to and excited about living our lives freely again".

2. It misunderstands his appeal across the Red Wall COMPLETELY.

They're still venal, they're still ruthless, they're still all about greed... but quite categorically, these are NOT the 'same old Tories'. These aren't Theresa May's Tories or David Cameron's Tories.

They're closer to Thatcher's Tories in a sense - but even that misses the mark

That sense lies in which voters they're specifically targeting. The right to buy dealigned the electorate and delivered a generation of lifelong Tory voters... but Thatcher herself wasn't personally corrupt. Not financially, at least.

She even believed - and this is incredible looking back - that if people did well or very well as a result of her policies, they'd give back to society: through philanthropy, through charity.

Her modest, Methodist upbringing was why she wrongly believed that.

In Johnson's case, he's spent his whole life living the dream. And he knows that others want that too.

Why else do you think the British public is so obsessed with celebrities? Why else is the lottery - a scam in all but name given the odds involved - so popular?

Why, for that matter, has consumer culture taken over the whole damn world over the last God knows how many decades? And why has 'socialism' become such a dirty word to so many?

It's not *just* because of the media. It's because people want things. Many things.

That's actually why the great postwar Labour government fell from power... because people were sick of austerity and rationing and wanted something more.
Labour has essentially been playing catch-up on 'what people want' ever since: Wilson had to compromise to win, as did Blair.

Then look at the red wall seats. Remember: Boris Johnson always gets what he wants. So voters in Hartlepool and elsewhere desperate for investment are effectively offered a bribe.

"Vote for us - and you'll get it. You'll be winners too. Don't vote for us, and you get NOTHING".

"Vote for us, and you'll get Brexit".

And Brexit was delivered.

"Vote for us, and you'll get investment, tons of it".

It's quite astoundingly cynical - because it deliberately plays one area off against another. And on voters' worst instincts.

These are pork barrel politics the like of which we've never seen before from the right in Britain.

But it *works* - because who doesn't fancy some pork for themselves? Especially those living in poor, deprived, blighted areas.

All those areas were run down and devasted by Thatcher and Cameron - while Blair did not remotely enough in trying to revive them.

Now, here's Johnson: with his party (because they're not the Same Old Tories) appearing to many voters like it really *does* offer change.

Change that can make their area - and they themselves - 'winners'. Like Boris is a 'winner'.

And if it's corrupt and venal... so what? He benefits. They benefit. If others suffer... that's not their problem, guv.

That's why Labour hurtling away from pledging huge investment and focusing on 'fiscal responsibility' 🙄is such a complete no-no. It misunderstands these voters to a quite lunatic extent.

It's also why Labour have done well in the north-west and Wales... because they've gone against Starmer. As a result, they look like what Labour is supposed to look like.

A serious, credible Labour Party would be paying the most urgent attention to the Preston model.

Keir Starmer offers platitudes like "Labour has only succeeded when it glimpses the future" while not having the first clue of what it looks like.

Well Keir: the Preston model, the democratisation and localisation of utilities and government - IS the future.

Universal Basic Income IS the future. A Green New Deal IS the future.

Even Johnson recognised that the Tories needed to head down a very different route. Austerity isn't for him. A kind of cheery, 'merrie England' Toryism is.

Voters vote for him because they see that in this mad, bad, ruthless world, he wins. Constantly.

American voters didn't care about Bill Clinton having an affair - because he delivered for them. It's the same with northern English voters.

If Labour is not bold, radical, exciting, energising, it is nothing.

That has never been more the case than now. Johnson actually understands this. Starmer appears absolutely clueless about it.

Telling the truth is nothing - repeat, nothing - compared with actually getting things done.

And the more decent or kind a politician is, then generally (but not always: see Biden as an antidote), the electorate doesn't believe they will get things done.

Strange, but true.

One other thing. Why is it that some people in all areas of life just get away with anything they do?

One reason is because deep down, we all know how flawed all human beings are. Nobody who ever lived didn't make mistakes or always did 'the right thing'.

If shaming people into obedience worked in any way... we wouldn't be in this situation, would we? And I suspect that's been the case throughout human history.

Given that, whenever the left hectors or lectures or boasts about being 'better people', boy oh boy does that alienate.

And that happens on here all the time. And I do it too far too often.

It's hard, extremely hard - but it's exactly why the Tories know they have an opportunity with the 'war on woke'.

I hate that they do because most 'woke' issues are things I fervently, passionately believe in.

But it's played out in the most hideously divisive way on here.

"You're a racist! You're a sexist! You're an apartheid apologist! You're a transphobe!"

And that doesn't just turn potential converts off. It makes them a heck of a lot more likely to see us as the problem; us as a 'cult'; us as a screaming, demented mob bent on cancelling others for holding a different view.

I think Joe Biden understood this perfectly; it's a large part of why he speaks so softly, so inclusively, to ALL Americans.

The problem with the various left wing options mentioned by others is... they don't understand it. At all.

But the electorate aren't going to magically become 'woke' or socialist if you don't reach out to them, listen to their concerns and engage with them fully.

The Preston model is a fantastic compromise - because it acknowledges that centralisation is outdated and doesn't work.

And if we just shout, scream and DEMAND instead... well, that looks horribly authoritarian and unreasonable to far too many.

So they turn away from us, and towards a particular form of liberalism (don't tell me what to do/how to live)... no matter how venal its representatives.

None of us are truly better or worse people than most others. We're all just *people*, navigating vastly complex lives as best we can.

The left, in particular, really needs not just to appreciate that, but practice it. With empathy and understanding at all times.