.@paulg always great but he makes a mistake that is v common among vv successful people: 'politicians are domain experts in political tactics, like how to get elected'. Weird but true: most know *surprisingly little* re how to get elected, campaigns are often provably irrational
If you want examples then I highly recommend this with @juliagalef@davidshor. NB. you hardly ever see how politics/power really works in mainstream media. You have to look elsewhere for useful info: static1.1.sqspcdn.com/static/f/46827…
E.g PM's private secretary on econ, SG, has more influence on what happens than any in Cabinet except PM/CHX. PM's PS on EU, JE, more influence on Brexit negotiations than any in Cabinet except PM. You'll find literally 0 coverage or explanation of such important facts in media
Such influence is often good for the country as many in No10 PS team are much smarter/more able than the CAB minister. My point is: how power truly works is not well understood by political media or even by most MPs/ministers
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1/ Covid… Summary evidence on lockdowns. For UK political pundits obsessed with spreading nonsense on Sweden/lockdowns, cf. SW econ did a bit WORSE than Denmark which locked down, AND far more deaths in Sweden: noahpinion.substack.com/p/yes-lockdown…
One of the biggest misunderstandings, spread by political pundits even now, is the ‘tradeoff’ argument. Fact: evidence clear that fast hard effective action best policy for economy AND for reducing deaths/suffering
When pundits who ‘explained’ why Vote Leave’s plan to realign politics was mad/stupid/impossible now give post hoc ‘explanations’ for why it’s all so logical/inevitable … ignore their babble… Pundits = noise not signal. Eg ‘the centre ground’ DOES NOT EXIST, it’s pundit fiction
Eg. 2014 dominiccummings.com/2014/06/30/my-… & 2016, CTRL+F centre ground - dominiccummings.com/2017/01/09/on-…. Vote Leave strategy in 16 & 19 was based on SW1 theories re ‘centre ground’ = false. SW1 didn’t learn after 2016 & provided a chance for us to win again in 19, ignoring pundit howling
KS is a beta-lawyer-gamma-politician, like ~all in SW1 he obsesses on Media Reality not Actual Reality, he’s played the lobby game (badly) for a year WITHOUT A MESSAGE TO THE COUNTRY, now the pundits will a/ savage him, b/ tell him he needs to focus on them more, more exclusives!