New blog: Midterms. Trump's blunder, DeSantis' chance. Why it's in @AOC's interests to challenge Biden. 2024 dynamics. Elite polarisation, Cicero, fishponds & civil war. Prof Sides' book on 2020...

dominiccummings.substack.com/p/2-regime-cha… 2/ Trump favourable ratings still remarkably high with GOP voters. Whether he's beaten for nomination will depend a lot on whether there is a big field he can pick off or GOP elites/Fox can get behind DeSantis dominiccummings.substack.com/p/2-regime-cha…

1/ New blog: The Human Handgrenade & Kami-kwasi fiasco - the Remain-PM + ERG totally on brand... Ignore MSM drivel from Telegraph, Economist - 'Truss underrated, will surprise on upside'. No No No
dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-8-t… 2/ NB. How SW1 is largely ignoring that UK pension funds nearly blew up cos of massive hidden leveraged positions that No10/11 didn't know about or understand (like 2007-8)! How many MPs have a Scooby Doo what's going on?!

New blog: Sunak has run a Cameroon-Establishment campaign, ‘fiscal conservatism’ is a *crazy* focus. 2023: best chance since ?1850s to build a replacement for the Tories when they sink in 2024
dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-7-a… Particularly crazy for Tory establishment to focus on 'fiscal conservatism' when they're *also* supporting breaking the manifesto guarantee on 'no tax rises'! Why would anyone believe your claims on tax/spend after that?!! dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-7-a…

1/ Fantastic to see efforts from so many officials, scientists, deep state, & misfits pay off with something left/right/remain/leave can all support.
Science must be core priority of UK + of No10.
And science funding must become much more diverse with much less friction
#ARIA

https://twitter.com/beisgovuk/status/1549257755516608514

2/ For background -
The Power of the Context, Alan Kay
google.com/search?client=…
The Dream Machine, Waldrop.
Interactive computing 1960/68, Licklider & Taylor:
memex.org/licklider.pdf
My paper on ARPA history & why UK needs its own
dominiccummings.files.wordpress.com/2018/09/201809…
#ARIA

1/ How sanctions will soon be seen. Public already shifting cos cost of living (US too). Last to see? Social-science-#FBPE-twatter, always the easiest to fool with propaganda, believe what they read in papers, perpetual groupthink & hysteria dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-4-a… 2/ What happens when you make privileged lefty Ivy league/Oxbridge grads/postgrads super-powerful in politics? E.g a/ Brexit! b/ Trump! Look at DEMs now, *absolute shitshow*. Delusional on Trump, again! The last ppl on earth to trust CNN/NYT 🤡
dominiccummings.substack.com/p/snippets-4-a…

Vote Tory = more...
taxes
regulation
shit bureaucracy
violent/sex crime
neglect of security/armed forces
A&E disasters / NHS neglect
chance of nuclear war
... while idiots babbling about trans & other shite get promoted all over sw1

#RegimeChange 2/ Tories & their wider support in media/'think tanks' etc are so intellectually, politically, & organisationally rancid that a change of leader may well not change these dynamics, but there is NO chance of even discussing serious change unless the 🛒 is replaced

Left graduates 2019-21: hurrah for 'rule of law', ECHR, HRA, JR, EU procurement law, boo to Cummings, hurrah for fox-clubber JRs, 'process is good'...
today: just take the evil people's stuff NOW, 'process' is bullshit
NB ECHR/HRA protects mafia too, not just terrorists & paedos! A feature of how Gvt works is HRA effects v rarely explained cos most don't want people thinking 'mmm maybe change that'. As I explained last year, on IRA amnesty & boats, gvt legal advice on HRA was *central but not publicly stated*. Relevant to slow action on oligarchs too

1/ 2017 re western liberals & putin
dominiccummings.com/2017/01/09/on-… 2/ 2017 re nuclear war, mismatch of our institutions & the scale/speed of crises compared to 1914
dominiccummings.com/2017/01/13/unr…

Lord Chief Justice crushes Kimono-fox-killer: total vindication for my decisions on moving super speedy on procurement to save lives (remember all the ignorant nonsense from pundits/minor social scientists/Remainiacs?)
dominiccummings.substack.com/p/the-uks-proc… Crucial: as Ive argued since BEFORE covid, we urgently need a SERIOUS EMERGENCY PROCUREMENT SYSTEM. The EU system killed people & let FoxKiller waste millions of taxpayers ££ for 2 yrs on nonsense. I had to move v fast in totally opaque legal miasma. Where is Gvt action???

When your #OODA is fkd...
1/ U send out defenders on tv & it's like they're working for your opponent #MoggTV
2/ U try to defend yourself in panic & blow up credibility of your own 'inquiry' giving lobby justification to dismiss as 'whitewash'
#🛒 #RegimeChange When your #OODA is fkd...
3/ Your best line of defence is ... catastrophic, and the more media you do defending yourself the more you destroy your own support & hasten the inevitable #RegimeChange

New blog: parties, photos, trolleys, variants. The Guardian photo does NOT show a party but there was a rule-breaking drinks on 20 May. MPs shd force publication of plans for variants & other pandemics ASAP to preempt further disasters dominiccummings.substack.com/p/parties-phot… No10 stupidly claimed the 15/5 was 'after office hours'. Total nonsense. Reality: the garden was used for meetings throughout spring-summer 2020, *to get people outside*

Regular reminder, cos 🛒 ignored my & others' advice & spent 2021 dicking around instead of e.g taking procurement/distribution of antivirals seriously, we're now in lap of gods re hospitalisation rate of omicron. If we're unlucky then Jan-Feb wave worse than 2021 #RegimeChange We already have antivirals - our political parties & Whitehall have simply not done what a competent Gvt wd do - organise to manufacture & distribute so people can get in <48hours and greatly reduce burden on NHS. Deathly incompetence that will continue without #RegimeChange

1/ Again despite deaths+econ harm, western states 1/ aren't acting on new drugs with urgency, 2/ this isn't politically contentious - parties across West cannot imagine *actually accelerating the abysmal administrative state*, media ditto. So 1000s more to die/suffer pointlessly 2/ Drug trials are being halted cos drugs so effective it's unethical to continue them - but the bureaucracies then just say yeah we'll get to this sometime in a few months maybe... And there's no controversy. Biden keeps these clowns. Ditto SW1, ditto Brussels

Today another e.g of PM decision to go in opposite direction to Vote Leave plan & instead be normal Tory: planning dropped, tax up, public service reform dropped, civil service… Today siding with the old forces instead of doing what public want, I.e upending the old forces In 2004 me + a handful, almost £0, 0 grassroots etc won referendum by 80-20, a result that ~never happens in democracies. How? Our message was based on widespread hate for politicians. This is why we won so big AND why it was ignored in SW1 as insiders didnt want to face reality

I wrote in 2014 how MoD procurement was horrific & having delved v deeply into it 2019-20, incl nuclear, it was *even worse in every way than even I said*. MoD/services full of people who understand but add this to list of things this no10 will ignore not fix

https://twitter.com/FTusa284/status/1455843216478113800

Also bear in mind this report does not go into classified stuff like the nuclear infrastructure which is *MUCH worse* than the worst of this report! Both parties & senior Whitehall have allowed this rot to continue. Breaking this cycle was another reason why Vote Leave did Brexit

Watching meetings on covid I think protocols/software that choreograph mtngs to expose these cognitive habits is worth trillions. Smart social proof cd make it costly to avoid protocol. Asking the 'stupid' Q often is 1000x more valuable than rest of mtng danluu.com/look-stupid/ Eg Ben Warner frequently said in Cabinet room, 'I think we're looking at the wrong graph, this graph is just wrong.' Risked looking v stupid. But added extremely high value cos he was right, 20 people including pm WERE looking at the wrong graph! *Almost nobody copied him though*

How could Labour win? Replace dud 'dead player' Starmer with Midlands woman who can build a team & focus on target voters in marginal seats - disconnect Tories from power by focus on violent crime & small business ecosystem, marginalise trans nutjobs et al dominiccummings.substack.com/p/how-could-la… Ps. No Jess Phillips is NOT the answer. She's focused on London media. Labour must shift focus *away from London* if it wants to disconnect Tories from power

We took over a party on ~10%, worst constitutional crisis in century, much of deep state angling for BINO or 2REF. So we wriggled thro with best option we cd & intended to get the 🛒 to ditch bits we didn't like after whacking Corbyn. We prioritised. Now time for IM2 #Frosty For all the cant about international law, a/ states break it every week, b/ the idea it's the epitome of morality is low grade student politics pushed by lawyers/officials to constrain politics they oppose. Govt shd focus on solving problems & chill viz "i/n law" viz NI #IMBill2

Oppenheimer on Groves is a great summary of the type of person who works organisational miracles and why it's so extraordinarily hard for normal bureaucracies to be extremely hi performance, as such people seem intolerable in a 'normal' environment, hence startups so crucial Correction, a paper I read says this is Oppenheimer but googling the original it isn't... Ill tweet real source when I track down...

New blog: to stop the comic-horror sequel of a Trump candidacy, we need a project to identify a GOP candidate + give them a plan/tools over the next 12 months so they're building & ready BEFORE the midterms launch the next Presidential cycle in 15 months dominiccummings.substack.com/p/regime-chang… Even if you wanted Trump to beat Biden you shd support this because Trump showed neither the interest in nor skills to control the government, so another Trump term just means pointless twitter bitching at the media (while actually sending them power & $$) while blundering around

Discussion over security minister classic example of media believing & telling you fairy stories. Overwhelming % of this job is done by officials. *The system* runs 'security'. The minister cd not exist/sensible/clown: largely irrelevant to policy/operations NB Im not saying this is good, just explaining fact that over 15 yrs the Cabinet Office & other elements have taken huge powers from ministers & this junior minister role has something like 1000 or 10,000 times less power than the Cabinet Secretary on 'security'