A reminder that electoral fraud is a tiny problem. There were only 164 cases of any kind at the 2019 general election. Across all elections in 2019 the police found it necessary to issue a mere 2 cautions. Electoral Commission says UK has “low levels of proven electoral fraud.”
That said Electoral Commission itself has recommended that the UK as a whole moves to some form of photo ID system, as in NI. They do acknowledge however that there are about 3.5 million people (mainly younger voters) without any form of ID. Big concern is it depresses turnout.
Electoral Commission has recommended that people be allowed to apply for a free form of ID from local councils. But clearly that requires effort which could be a disincentive for voting. It goes in a v different direction to Scotland & Wales, which have enfranchised 16 year olds.
In Scotland’s case this extends now to resident foreign nationals and refugees

In a set of pilots in the 2019 locals though turnout broadly held up more than 800 people were unable to vote across 8 trial areas- enough to potentially alter the outcome in some places.
Also worth noting that the trials didn’t take place with especially young/minority/deprived populations- all groups least likely to have photo ID.

Of course if we had ID cards things would be simple in this regard- but that feels very 2004...

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More from @lewis_goodall

11 May
NEW: I understand that the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards has concluded that she will not decide whether to investigate the PM over donations and the refurbishment of his flat until after Electoral Comm investigation has concluded. In other words, could be a long wait.
Does have a logic to it- EC has greater powers to probe exactly what's happened. Presumably thinking is once that's transpired Commissioner is in a better position to adjudge.

Why we're still waiting for the Mustique investigation conclusion 16 months on is a different matter...
@margarethodge who was pushing for an investigation tells me: “I have a great deal of respect for the Commissioner, but I am concerned that we are not tackling the problem head on. The person who urgently needs to be held to account is the Prime Minister...
Read 5 tweets
11 May
NEW: Nicola Sturgeon confirms that Scotland (save likely for Moray) will move to Level 2 from Monday.
Public health experts believe that there is "widespread community transmission" in Moray.
FM says that if transmission doesn't reduce in next few days then travel restrictions in and out of Moray will be imposed.
Read 6 tweets
11 May
Queen's Speech: "My Government will strengthen and renew democracy and the constitution. Legislation will be introduced to ensure the integrity of elections, protect freedom of speech and restore the balance of power between the executive, legislature and the courts."
Prepare for a very big row about each element of these.
On Voter ID ministers saying that this is a "hole in the system" that needs to be fixed. Worth saying we haven't seen any evidence for the fraud that would have been prevented had this system been in place. Also true to say there are lots of other "holes in the system" in our...
Read 4 tweets
9 May
Though extremely wounding for Dodds. Never entirely understood the criticism. How many Shadow Chancellors "cut through"?
All replies to this are listing those who were either s chancellor for a long time and/or became chancellor. Dodd’s shadowed for a year in a pandemic where few were interested in Lab. neither defending nor praising but focussing on her lack of “cut through” specifically seems odd
Read 4 tweets
9 May
KEY ENGLAND ELECTION TAKEAWAYS (thread)

1) Brexit realignment continues
2) Tory Party now hegemonic in much of England.
3) Elections put pay to the theory that Labour's problems were just about Corbyn.
4) Greens on the rise.
5) Some people have said today that the narrative of the elections would be very different if the results had come in a different order. I'm not so sure. Yes Labour won most of the mayoral contests but given they mainly cover urban conurbations in which Labour does well that...
...isn't surprising. People point to the WoE and C&P mayors as a sign of realignment but it's more a sign that there are lots of Labour inclined votes in Bristol and Cambridge and that a different electoral system can really help progressive parties when the vote is split.
Read 30 tweets
9 May
Tracy Brabin on course to win the West Yorkshire mayoralty and as a result we’re in for another by-election in Batley and Spen.
Will be of enormous political importance- Labour won’t have the excuse of the Brexit Party vote given its very small. As I said following Hartlepool, I suspect real peril for Starmer if he loses- after events of last 24 hours even more so.
Cue political journalists furiously googling the Heavy Woollen District Independents
Read 7 tweets

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