A popular misconception about herd immunity is that it's a binary thing.
The goal is achieving broad *exponential decay* of the pool of coronavirus infections and then limiting the spread of further flareups.
The vaccination effort is like building firebreaks.
The goal is achieving broad *exponential decay* of the pool of coronavirus infections and then limiting the spread of further flareups.
The vaccination effort is like building firebreaks.
"We may never achieve herd immunity" is often written from the perspective of people who think that is akin to creating a solution to the problem of fire.
That isn't the goal; the goal is containing small fires such that they're tractable to standard firefighting techniques.
That isn't the goal; the goal is containing small fires such that they're tractable to standard firefighting techniques.
The *alternative* to this is that we spend the next several years watching for smoke and then Shut Down Everything if we detect a sudden increase in it locally.
We should urgently, urgently, urgently prefer accelerating the vaccination campaign.
We should urgently, urgently, urgently prefer accelerating the vaccination campaign.
Otherwise we can look forward to 2022 headlines like "Schools in X closed for weeks on account of covid-19 outbreak."
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