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Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
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10 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Yep, another good day of numbers on migrant children for the Biden administration. Yesterday hit a record low for unaccompanied children encountered at the border and the overall number of children in government custody dropped by 1,421 since one week ago. The trend line is good! Image
For reasons that are not entirely clear, the number of unaccompanied children coming to the border has been falling steadily for weeks after peaking in late March.

Numbers are still higher than 2019 but they keep falling. All those who predicted a peak in May were wrong. Image
Meanwhile, the Biden administration continues to succeed at ramping up ORR's capacity to release children to their sponsors.

This week starts with the highest total for a Sunday since they began reporting numbers in late March. Every week has seen an overall capacity increase. Image
A correction: by "record low" in this tweet I meant "a record low since DHS began reporting daily numbers 7 weeks ago." Definitely not a record. I blame Monday brain.

It seems like we're seeing a bigger drop from April-May than we saw from March-April.

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More from @ReichlinMelnick

Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
12 May
Border numbers came out. Some interesting trends tracked by Adam below, which I'll dive into as well once I've had a chance to review them carefully.

Big picture? Single adult apprehensions—rising for a year now—continue to increase. Meanwhile, families and kids dropped by 9.7%.
The number of families processed at the border under normal immigration law (and not expelled with no chance to seek asylum) continues to be much lower than 2019.

Last month 36% of all families arriving at the border were expelled back to Mexico. Image
One note on the expulsion of families. CBP has quietly made a major change to March's data on Title 42 expulsions—and families in particular.

CBP is now reporting over 4,000 additional expulsions of families, meaning 40% of families were expelled in March, not 33%.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
11 May
CBP routinely, as a matter of general practice, takes peoples' belongings (including phones) and throws them all in the trash, except for "valuables" they let people keep.

All of that is against policy yet they just keep doing it. And it leads to things like this. 👇
In 2019, the DHS Office of Inspector General documented CBP throwing away everyone's belongings except for valuables—including this doll and a little girl's backpack.

CBP's explanation? The "items might be wet, have
bugs, and be muddy, and, therefore, presented a 'biohazard.'" ImageImage
Not all phones are thrown out, and sometimes people do get them back. But it is inconsistent.

CBP also tosses peoples' medication in the trash as a matter of policy, because it wasn't prescribed in the US. But if people are only held for a few hours, that can be dangerous.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
8 May
How much of that $850 million went to building a dashboard for “Operation Artemis,” as we just learned the border effort is called?
Some really interesting stuff here. Once again shows that CBP’s dire predictions about numbers are not coming true, which has given the Biden administration more breathing room. A “daily encounters forecast” set of bars, showing May d
Man, this list of reasons specific DOD sites were deemed not viable to hold migrant children is fascinating. Lost of six military bases and reasons they were rejected as
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
6 May
Good thread about today's announcement of new immigration judges. And I've got another thing to flag.

6 will go to a brand new "Richmond Immigration Adjudication Center," an office building where the public isn't allowed and judges appear by video in hearings around the country.
This the third so-called "Immigration Adjudication Center," with the other two in Falls Church, VA and Fort Worth, TX.

Judges in these centers will order thousands of people deported without every having to look someone directly in the face. It's all done through video.
The EOIR Director under Trump, James McHenry, seemingly wanted an immigration court system that operates like Social Security (judges all appearing via video), rather than a traditional courtroom with everyone in one place.

Today's announcement is likely a result of that push.
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
6 May
Alright, let's talk "Asylum Cooperative Agreements" (ACAs).

You may have seen many of Biden's opponents specifically say that terminating these agreements caused a "border crisis."

So what were the ACAs, how did they come into place, and is there any truth in that? A thread. Tweet from Rep. Mark Green: "1 + 1 = 2 Cancelling the wTweet from Team McCaul: "The Biden Administration must Tweet from Rep. Andy Barr: "The President of Mexico is Tweet from Dan Crenshaw: "No, you fake partisan journal
"Asylum Cooperative Agreements" are a form of "Safe Third Country" agreement, a concept in US law where someone can be denied the right to ask for asylum if they can be sent to a country where they won't face persecution and which provides "a full and fair" chance to seek asylum. Quote from US law: "[The right to apply for asylum] sha
The "safe third country" concept was created by Congress in 1996, and until 2019 only one such agreement existed.

The US-Canada STC Agreement took years to negotiate, is very limited, provides numerous exceptions, and imposes obligations on both sides. canada.ca/en/immigration… Where the Agreement is in effect: The Safe Third Country Agr
Read 22 tweets
Aaron Reichlin-Melnick Profile picture
5 May
Public ICE data posted online shows that there were 3,316 ICE deportations from March 28 through April 24, so I'm having a hard time squaring that with this line in @NickMiroff's piece. There are clearly two conflicting data sources right now.
ICE data is always a bit wonky, but from the data ICE publishes online removals have indeed dropped but didn't go below 3,000 for April, as the Post story suggests.

Anyway, to be clear, I'm only quibbling with the exact numbers provided in the story from the ICE sources, not the overall thrust of the story, which is indeed supported by the data! This is me griping about ICE data, a personal pet peeve. Messy government data is frustrating!
Read 4 tweets

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