Thread by @billscher

Only 3 times since Reconstruction has the president's party gained House seats in the midterm.

But what's the common thread through those 3 times?

Crisis.

I wrote about it for @monthly washingtonmonthly.com/2021/05/10/dem…

But let's look at those 3 cases...

@monthly 1934: FDR begins to dig out the Great Depression with the New Deal. Net gain 9 seats.

1998: GOP launches impeachment inquiry during economic boom, boosting Clinton. Net gain 5 seats.

2002: Post 9/11 national security concerns boost Bush & GOP. Net gain 8 seats.

...

@monthly We have also one more case of the president's party losing less than 5 House seats.

1962: JFK's Democrats lose just 4 seats one month after the Cuban Missile Crisis.

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@monthly Today, Biden's Democrats can keep the House if they lose less than 5 seats.

Today, Biden is governing in the midst of crisis.

Will that be enough?

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@monthly ...In those four cases the presidential approval was above 60% (we don't have polls for 1934, but FDR was probably up there.)

Biden hit 63% in the latest AP poll but his RCP/538 average is 54%. Does it need to be higher? Can't say for sure.

...

@monthly Typically the president's party loses seats because the governing realities deflate the president's base and energize the opposition.

So far, Democrats are unified & Republicans are divided, a good omen for Biden...

@monthly Still, crisis management is never perfectly smooth sailing. We don't know how people will feel about the pandemic by Nov. 22, or will they have completely moved on from it, taking us out of a crisis atmosphere...

@monthly What we do know is the ingredients of a rare gain for the president's party are already in place. Governing in crisis. Opposition divided.

More from me in @monthly washingtonmonthly.com/2021/05/10/dem…