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4 Dec, 5 tweets, 2 min read
My first history podcast episode–about the creation of the UN–begins with a seemingly unrelated scandal: when Undersecretary of State Sumner Welles sexually propositioned porters on FDR's train

scherable.com/whenamericawor…

This got me thinking, is this the 1st WH gay sex scandal?...
...Before the Sumner Welles incident was the 1919 Newport sex scandal, which involved Navy sailors and implicated FDR as Asst Sec to the Navy en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_s… . But didn't involve sexual activity among people in the administration...
...But perhaps the Welles incident shouldn't qualify either because the scandal never became public during FDR's presidency, though it was gossiped about and led to Welles' resignation...
...based on this @TheAdvocateMag list of gay sex scandals in history, I think the first public WH gay sex scandal was when LBJ's chief of staff was arrested for oral sex and resigned soon after...

advocate.com/people/2018/2/…
...most importantly, listen to my podcast scherable.com/whenamericawor…

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More from @billscher

Bill Scher Profile picture
28 Nov
Huh? Biden absolutely did flip suburban white women voters.

Blacks and Latinos are not monolithic voting blocs but neither are white women. Image
As with much “white women” analysis in 2016, this piece ignored the widening education divide.

Dem presidential margin with college educated white women:

2012: -6
2016: +6
2020: +9

With non-college white women

2012: -20
2016: -28
2020: -27
Sources

washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/w…

theatlantic.com/politics/archi…

fivethirtyeight.com/features/clint…

cnn.com/election/2020/…
Read 6 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
4 Nov
In the CNN exit poll, 66% of voters believe climate change is a serious problem

Of those who believe climate change is a serious problem, 29% voted for Trump
More CNN exits

11% of voters did not vote in 2016

Biden won '16 non-voters 61-37
More CNN exits

White vote by education & gender

Non-college men: Trump 67 Biden 30
Non-college women: Trump 60 Biden 39
College women: Trump 50 Biden 49
College men: Biden 50 Trump 48
Read 5 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
3 Nov
While we wait, a short thread of my Biden-related work, starting with my 9/17 piece: "Joe Biden’s Platform for 2020: Anti-Populism"

"you can see him sculpting a role for the 2020 presidential campaign that perhaps only he could get away with playing"

politico.com/magazine/story…
Just before his entry into the race, I wrote of "The Two-Biden Problem," how to square his 2 disparate narratives pushed by his friends and foes

politico.com/magazine/story…
Soon after Biden's entry, and initial poll bump, I argued the activist left was misreading the Democratic electorate, and in turn, Biden's chances

politico.com/magazine/story…
Read 8 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
2 Nov
Biden will win. No hedges. No caveats.

Why am I so sure, after what we through in 2016?

I laid out my case in @RealClearNews. But here are the highlights...

realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/…
...As I previously showed in this thread, during the final two weeks of 2016, Trump had clear signs of strong momentum in several key states (as well as nationally)...
...But his year, during the same period, Trump has only gained more than 1 point on Biden in AZ, IA and MN. Nationally, there's been a mild tightening, with Biden retaining a healthy lead and 50+% vote share...
Read 9 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
25 Oct
For those asking if the polls can be wrong and Trump can still win, like in 2016, my response is:

The 2016 polls did NOT miss the Trump surge.

In the last 2 weeks, they showed big Trump momentum in key states.

Look at these RCP charts...
Michigan, final two weeks:

Clinton +10 -> Clinton +3.6
Florida, final two weeks:

Clinton +4 -> Trump +0.4
Read 7 tweets
Bill Scher Profile picture
4 Oct
Jason Sudeikis' Biden > Woody Harrelson’s Biden > Jim Carrey’s Biden
I was going to tack on the best SNL Biden sketch of the 2020 primary but apparently NBC has yanked it off the intertubes nbc.com/saturday-night…
At least we still have the 2012 VP debate
Read 4 tweets

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