1/6 During yesterday's mini-dip, I saw unrest in my feed & some people were pinging me if I was still bullish on #Bitcoin
To me this was nothing but another shake-out of weak hands and leverage, while nothing changed regarding the big picture 🤷♂️
A short 🧵 on (not) getting rekt
2/6 So, what happened?
Simple: as soon as #Bitcoin set a new local high and dipped a bit, there was a steep uptick in people aping in long on leverage again 🦍
As always, this is a recipe for getting rekt - which is exactly what happened a few hours later 🤦
3/6 Meanwhile, there were large stablecoin inflows to exchanges and large #bitcoin outflows from OTC desks - both signs that there is some serious dip buying going on
"Thanks for the liquidity, (rekt) apes!" 🐳🎩
4/6 During this dip, the average coin dormancy decreased (a bit), which means that relatively young coins made up an increasingly large part of the on-chain volume
Another sign that it was particularly the less experienced market participants that were triggered by the dip
5/6 The irony is that if you zoom out (even just a little bit), none of this was a big deal at all 🤏
Unless you're an experienced, professional trader that consciously chooses to trade small timeframes: zoom out & slow down (lower your time preference)
6/6 That is why I am personally not looking at intra-day charts and on-chain flows but particularly focus on the larger (4-year) market cycle
If you're curious about my current thoughts on the bigger picture and why I am not worried, this 🎩 might help:
2/11 Money can be defined as "the most salable good to transfer value across space and time"
#Bitcoin can be seamlessly transferred across both space and time thanks to its digital nature and 21-million maximum supply
3/11 When valuing #bitcoin, those aspects need to be taken into account
Some models focus on scarcity (e.g., @100trillionUSD's S2F models), whereas others may look at its transactional capacity (e.g., @woonomic's Network-Value-to-Transactions (NVT) Price model)
2/5 The first concept to grasp is that of Realized Value (RV), introduced by @nic__carter & @khannib in 2018
RV is the total value of all circulating coins at the last time they moved on-chain, therefore representing the estimated cost-base of all existing #bitcoin
3/5 Briefly after, @kenoshaking & @MustStopMurad divided the total #bitcoin Market Value (MV) by the RV, creating a groundbreaking metric called the MVRV Ratio
A pseudonym called Awe and Wonder then iterated upon it by standardizing it ((MV-RV)/MVsd), creating the MVRV Z-Score
2/17 Last year, @Glassnode learned that when an Unspent Transaction Output (UTXO) is >155 days old, its has a relatively low probability of being spent
Based on this, they created Short-Term Holder (STH) and Long-Term Holder (LTH) supply metrics
3/17 If you divide @glassnode's LTH supply by the circulating #bitcoin supply, you get a LTH Supply Ratio that quantifies the portion of the supply that is estimated to belong to LTHs
LTHs tend to sell against market strength (🟥) and accumulate during market weakness (🟩)
2/22 Since mid-April, China came down hard on #Bitcoin, banning its institutions to offer #bitcoin services, censoring related search results and shutting down mining operations in recent weeks
Hash rate dropped ~50%, to levels not seen since briefly after last year's halving 🤕
3/22 A result of the hash rate drop is that #Bitcoin blocks are coming in much slower than the usual 10 minute block intervals
In fact; block creation slowed down to more than twice the intended interval & levels not seen in >11 years, illustrating the magnitude of this drop 🤯
1/25 @BitcoinMagazine just posted the first edition of a new monthly series titled 'Cycling On-Chain', in which on-chain and price-related data are used to estimate where in #Bitcoin's market cycle we are
2/25 Just like the periods after the 2012 and 2016 halvings, the 2020 #Bitcoin halving created a supply shock that triggered an exponential price increase
However, compared to the previous one, this cycle got heated much faster 🥵
3/25 When the #bitcoin price ran towards and beyond its previous (2017) all-time high at $20k, market participants increasingly started to secure profits
After the January local top, this profit-taking has been decreasing - despite price still grinding up until recently
1/7 Just published an article at @BitcoinMagazine that uses on-chain data visualizations to explain how #Bitcoin's difficulty adjustment mechanism works & how it relates to hash rate, block intervals, fees & the mempool
2/7 #Bitcoin reaches its 21 million hard cap by starting with a 50 BTC block subsidy and halving that each 210k blocks, until the block subsidy falls away after 33 halvings
#Bitcoin needs block intervals of ~10 min to ensure these halvings are spread out over ~4 years. But why?
3/7 If #Bitcoin had a fixed difficulty, it would have had an adoption threshold if it started high, or quickly run through its supply issuance schedule if it started low
Relatively stable block interval times are needed to spread out miner incentives & ensure stable throughput