Some other basic concepts that aren't clear yet, even though they costed us dearly:
- problems must be addressed not for how big they are but how big they can become
- connectivity (planes, etc.) helps diseases spread
2/4
– respiratory diseases are likely to transmit by having inhaled the air someone infected exhaled (duh, and yet…)
3/4
Another basic concept we're ignoring:
- virus labs and bat research are sources of outbreaks
Regardless of what happened in Wuhan with COVID, there are tens of documented cases a year, as per my pinned tweet.
Will we also ignore this, until it's too late and beyond?
4/4
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Yes, it’s no applicable in all contexts, but example: long degrees are a problem not just for the tuition but in some cases also for the time spent not working and having to move to another city.
Shortening degrees where possible would help.
I disagree with many of the points below. One by one:
#6: the problem is not herding, but herding in absence of skin in the game.
Herding + skin in the game = we imitate those who prepare for disasters.
Herding w/o skin in the game = we imitate charlatans and fools.
(THREAD)
#4: Inertia. If it were a thing, people who got a driving license would keep driving slowly, as they got used to while practicing.
Instead, inertia is a confabulation. We constantly adapt our optimal risk-taking level based on our experiences and incentives.
Sometimes it means not to change (and a researcher jumps in calling "inertia!") but other times it means to change (and someone jumps in calling "another fancy name for another bias") – but both are confabulations that tell more about the study design than about our brain.