Dr. Bonnie Henry interview on CBC @daybreaknorth this morning. First question: CBC (@j_mcelroy) asked multiple times for community COVID-19 data but you're only sharing it after last week's data leak. Answer: Henry says she didn't know CBC had been requesting the info.
Why wasn't this data being shared already?
A. We only started putting together this dataset in April, and wanted to wait for transmission levels to be high enough(?) before sharing. It takes time.

Says they want interactive data
(as an aside, this past week is the first I've heard Dr. Henry talk about her eagerness and desire to post better and more detailed data, rather than saying they are sharing all they can/what they are sharing should be enough)
Q. Surrey teachers pointing to high transmission rates (20 percent+ positivity in recent weeks), asking for masks for ALL grades, more remote learning options

A: low transmission in schools

Followup: but you said yesterday detailed data on school transmission isn't collected
A. "I said what we don't have is SURVEILLANCE data that records every single person. But Fraser Health works with every single school, every single exposure event and we're presented the information they've collected at schools"
Q. Northern Health put out statement saying hospital staff in Fort St. John are "being run off their feet". How has it gotten this bad in the Peace region?

A. Says it's a challenge. Adds "I think there's a caution... with looking at case rates." Testing can increase positivity
(this is a line she's used elsewhere, including on the Vancouver CBC program this morning - that high positivity in some regions reflects they are testing more people and clusters. Her argument is we are testing people we think have COVID, and they do, so positivity is high)
Worries about vaccine hesitancy in certain regions of the province reducing odds of herd immunity? Talks about importance of talking to people about benefits of vaccine, being understanding of concerns and addressing them
There is a difference between what Dr. Henry has said on this topic and what Trump infamously said.

His claim was that a rise in CASES was a result of increased testing while Henry is linking high positivity rates to testing, not the # of cases (1/2)

(2/2) the B.C. argument is that our strategy is not to test the general pop. but to focus on ppl w/ symptoms who've been exposed. Which means we're testing a subset w/ a higher likelihood of having COVID. But B.C. isn't arguing high cases are the result of tests, which Trump did
It's also an argument that's directed less at B.C. as a whole and more at regional areas with high positivity, where it is true that a cluster of family or workplace exposures could skew the positivity higher quite easily.

And it is worth noting that if B.C. wanted to decrease..
..if B.C. wanted to decrease positivity rates, an easy way to do so would be to increase asymptomatic testing or testing of people without known exposure to COVID-19 to increase the likelihood that people test negative, this driving down the positivity rates
In fact, this was a criticism levelled at the government last year when daily tests for people on film sets were being included in the overall data.

Unless you are doing random sample testing it isn't likely that positivity rates are going to reflect true population positivity

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More from @akurjata

11 May
B.C.'s interior and north could be getting less electoral power in this process. Rural ridings already have significantly less people than urban ones, which in some ways mean those votes count for more. But I'd argue it's not as simple as that #bcpoli
cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
When you consider the way representation works, geography does matter to a certain extent. If you have five MLAs for Urban City, and one MLA for Multiple Rural Communities, even if Rural MLA has fewer constituents you could argue urban voters have more representation
Urban City has five MLAs to work for better roads, advocate for hospital upgrades, or push for a new community center. Rural Communities have one shared MLA who has to do that for all of them
Read 6 tweets
16 Apr
One thing I haven't seen much about but I think is interesting is how many times B.C. has let perfect be the enemy of potentially good in pandemic response (short thread)
Most obvious example in interprovincial border restrictions. Argument is it would be too tough to enforce perfectly, so they didn't try

But also federal COVID app: Henry expressed concern it might not work perfectly, so never used bc.ctvnews.ca/covid-19-alert…
Masks in schools: While other provinces were implementing, B.C resisted because some kids might not be able to wear them properly all day.
Read 6 tweets
16 Apr
They could have closed ski hills
They could have provided alerts when there were localized outbreaks
They could have set up checkpoints on busy highways
Instead they said the strategy was working and this is the result
But let's not pretend there were no other tools to use
"What are we going to do, arrest people?"

Before going there you could take away incentives to engage in behaviour you are strongly encouraging people not to engage in. Don't want people traveling for spring break? Make it harder or less enticing
Even now the dominant message is "what we are doing as government is good enough, we just need the people to listen to us"

As long as the situation worsens, that is a demonstrable failure of the strategy
Read 7 tweets
15 Apr
Live update and modeling from Dr. Henry on B.C.'s COVID-19 response. I'm not doing a full breakdown, just things that stand out to me, from the north. cbc.ca/news/canada/br…
Good news: Rates of new infections in northwest are going down, particularly because of targeted vaccinations in Prince Rupert.
Bad news, but not suprising if you've been paying attention: Peace River South (Dawson Creek) has second highest rate of new cases in the province, behind Howe Sound.
Read 9 tweets
15 Apr
My hot take is that even if everyone has vaccines by the end of the summer we should still question Canada's approach to the pandemic because we are seeing record-high case counts and hospitalizations NOW, as vaccines are being distributed and with a year's worth of knowledge
The thing I keep thinking about is: Those vaccines were made fast. Faster than most people predicted. It is very possible we could have been in this position with vaccines still a year away. How effective would our response look then?
Because I have bad news: theconversation.com/the-next-once-…
Read 4 tweets

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