Noble Francis Profile picture
May 12, 2021 18 tweets 11 min read Read on X
THREAD: Construction output in March 2021 was 5.8% higher than in rain-affected February & 6.0% higher than in March 2020 according to the ONS. Output was also higher than pre-Covid-19 & at its highest level since September 2019...
#ukconstruction
ons.gov.uk/businessindust… Image
... On a monthly basis, construction output in March 2021 was 5.8% higher than rain-affected February with increases in almost every construction sector & the largest rises public housing (+16.7%), private housing (+9.4%) & private housing rm&i (+7.7%) whilst...
#ukconstruction Image
... on an annual basis, construction output in March 2021 was 6.0% higher than a year earlier although it is worth noting that construction output from 23 March 2020 was affected by the social distancing restrictions during the initial lockdown...
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... & it is useful to see how key sectors have evolved since January 2020 (pre-Covid-19). Total construction output in March 2021 was 1.7% higher than in January 2020 with the sharpest recoveries in private housing rm&i, infrastructure & private housing whilst...
#ukconstruction Image
... construction output in commercial & industrial during March 2021 remained double-digit percentages lower than in January 2020 according to the ONS. Looking at individually at the key sectors...
#ukconstruction Image
... private housing output in March 2021 was 9.4% higher than in rain-affected February & was 9.0% higher than a year ago but it was 0.8% lower than in January 2020 (pre-Covid-19), which sounds counter-intuitive given the buoyant housing market but...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... housing starts & completions (new build homes) were above pre-Covid-19 levels at the end of last year, housing output also includes conversions (e.g. a house changed into flats) & changes in use (e.g. offices changed to flats), which are subdued...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... Overall, house builders reported that demand was strong in March & that the extensions to the current Help to Buy & the Stamp Duty holiday plus the mortgage guarantee scheme will help to sustain demand for the majority of the year...
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... Private housing repair, maintenance & improvement in March 2021 was 7.7% higher than in rain-affected February, 21.0% higher than in March 2020 (affected by the initial lockdown towards from 23 March 2020) & 19.3% higher than in January 2020 (pre-Covid-19)...
#ukconstruction Image
... & SME contractors I spoke to in March 2021 stated that there was a sharp increase in rm&i activity from the start of March with work focusing on home-office facilities for working from home & making better use of (& improving the quality of) outdoor space...
#ukconstruction Image
... Infrastructure output in March 2021 was 4.0% higher than in February 2021, 12.7% higher than in March 2020 & 6.5% higher than in January 2020 (pre-Covid-19). Infrastructure activity rose in March 2021 due to...
#ukconstruction #ukinfrastructure Image
... work on major projects, such as HS2 (despite further delays & cost overruns), Thames Tideway & Hinkley Point C as well as programmes & frameworks in regulated sectors such as Highways England roads projects...
#ukconstruction #ukinfrastructure Image
... Commercial (offices, retail & leisure) output in March 2021 was 6.7% higher than in February 2021 & it has risen for 3 consecutive months due to mainly fit-out work on existing units preparing for opening/reopening as social distancing restrictions ease & ...
#ukconstruction Image
... remodelling existing facilities to be used with social distancing but output in March 2021 remained 5.8% lower than a year ago (note activity in March 2020 was affected by the initial lockdown) & 10.3% lower than in January 2020 (pre-Covid-19) due to...
#ukconstruction Image
... lower productivity on towers projects (where social distancing is more difficult due to different groups of trades mixing in tight spaces) so towers are taking longer & costing more plus fewer new large towers to replace those projects finishing...
#ukconstruction Image
Overall, looking back to the nadir of construction output in the initial lockdown in April 2020, in which output was 45% lower than a year ago, it is remarkable that construction output surpassed pre-Covid-19 levels of output in less than one year (March 2021)...
#ukconstruction Image
... & output in some construction sectors, such as private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i) & infrastructure, had already surpassed pre-Covid-19 levels of output by Autumn 2020 (pent-up demand) just a few months after the April nadir. END OF THREAD
#ukconstruction Image

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More from @NobleFrancis

May 16
A thread on the latest UK construction employment data for 2024 Q1 as the industry continues to lose key skilled workers who will be critical for economic growth, productivity, building more homes, better infrastructure & net zero transition. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
There were 2.08 million people employed in UK construction in 2024 Q1, which is 1.9% lower than in Q4 & a year ago plus 14.3% lower (347,000 fewer workers) than at the recent peak in 2019 Q1. This sharp fall in construction workers is... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
... partly due to the double-digit falls in activity in the 2 largest construction sectors, private house building & private housing repair, maintenance & improvement (rm&i). The sharp decline in UK construction employment also includes the... (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction Image
Read 13 tweets
May 10
A long thread on the latest ONS construction output data for March 2024... Construction output in a weather-affected March was 0.4% lower than in rain-affected February & 2.2% lower than a year ago according to the ONS. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Given the impact of the poor weather on construction activity in 2024 Q1, especially outdoor construction activity, 2024 Q2 may see a degree catch-up activity, although note that... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
... whilst an extent of catch up activity in construction may occur on larger sites, most smaller sites lack the additional spare capacity needed to catch up so work generally just ends up being pushed back instead. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing Image
Read 24 tweets
Mar 19
A thread highlighting the major age-demographic problem in the UK construction workforce &, critically, the rapid acceleration of the age-demographic problem since 2019 Q1 with a loss of over 300,000 UK construction workers. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
In 2019 Q1, UK construction already had an age-demographic problem in the UK-born workforce, with a spike in employment in the 50-64 ages so construction was set to lose over 500,000 workers (1/4 of the workforce) in 10-15 years. (2/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
However, the age-demographic problem & the loss of UK-born construction employment has accelerated rapidly between 2019 Q1 & 2023 Q4 with a loss of more than 300,000 UK construction workers in less than five years. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #construction #ukhousing Image
Read 13 tweets
Feb 16
4,378 UK construction firms went out of business in the year to December 2023. This is 5.1% higher than a year ago & 37.9% higher than in the year to January 2020, pre-pandemic, according to this morning's Government Insolvency Service data. (1/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
The 4,378 UK construction firms that went under in the UK in year to December 2023 was at its highest levels since the financial crisis, over 10 years ago. In fact,... (2/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
... UK construction insolvencies were already at their highest levels since the financial crisis at the end of 2022 & have continued to gradually rise since then & UK construction insolvencies are expected to continue to rise further in 2024 H1. (3/n)
#ukconstruction #ukhousing
Read 11 tweets
Oct 4, 2023
UK brick deliveries in August 2023 (a proxy for actual house building starts as housebuilders rushed through 'technical starts' in Q2, doing the minimum necessary to get ahead of the uprated building regulations F, L, O & S that add cost) were... (1/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... 5.6% lower than in July & 30.2% lower than a year ago (which was a high base prior to the Mini Budget that led to the initial sharp rise in mortgage rates & fall in housing demand) & we are seeing the impact of... (2/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
... the lagged impact of mortgage rate rises in May & June on not only the housing market but house building starts, with house builders unsurprisingly focusing on completing existing developments rather than starting new developments. (3/n)
#ukhousing #ukconstruction Image
Read 7 tweets
Jun 29, 2023
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were 6.1% lower than in the previous quarter & 17.8% lower than a year ago according to the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities (DLUHC). (1/n)
#ukhousing #housing
Private house building starts in England in 2023 Q1 were also 34.0% lower than the recent peak in 2022 Q2 although note that this recent peak for starts was an artificial peak boosted by house builders getting ahead of the building regulations changes... (2/n)
#ukhousing #housing
... with the building regulations changes adding extra cost for house builders due to uprated Part F, Part L Part O & Part S (Infrastructure for charging electric vehicles). Hence, why completions did not spike in line with starts last year. (3/n)
#ukhousing #housing
Read 10 tweets

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