Thread by @KanitkarT

THREAD ON THE ELUSIVE SECOND DOSE
1/n In the months of May and June, India will need to administer at least 125 million doses of COVID-19 vaccines as SECOND DOSES alone. If vaccine supplies are not augmented, many risk missing their second dose.

2/n As of 30th April, about 152 million vaccine doses had been administered, of which 82% were first doses. So from 1 May onwards, at least 125 million doses had to be reserved as second doses, to be administered in the months of May and June assuming a 8-9 week gap between doses

3/n Contrast this with the production capacity - According to the GoI's sworn affidavit to the Supreme Court, SII has a capacity to produce of 65 million doses/month. BBIL's capacity is 10 million doses/month.

4/n About 113 million doses of Covishield and 12 million doses of Covaxin will be needed in the months of May and June JUST as the second booster doses. This implies that about 87% of total SII capacity and 60% of BBIL capacity has to be reserved for second doses alone.

5/n So the requirements of second doses itself would stretch capacity. The procurement for May so far is even lower. GoI had procured 21 million doses for the first fortnight of May, and another 20 million doses were available for procurement through “other than GoI channels”

6/n This adds up to only 41 million doses for the month of May. 84 million SECOND DOSES are yet to be procured. Despite the tech savvy computer hacks, the 18-44 age cohort must perhaps wait longer for their vaccines? The Government needs to take a call on this urgently

7/n The story as usual is different across states. Second dose administration is contingent on the number, timing, and type of first doses already administered (as per current MoHFW recommendations). Allocations across states must take this into account

8/n So some states such as Kerala and Rajasthan where only about 5% of the total doses administered have been of Covaxin, need fewer second doses of this particular vaccine as compared to say Delhi, where 30% of the total doses administered have been of Covaxin.

9/n There is however a mismatch in GoI allocations. E.g. Karnataka needs 7.8 lakh doses of Covaxin just as second doses in May and June. The allocation for May is 5.7 lakh doses. Bihar needs 3.2 lakh booster doses of Covaxin. Its allocation for May is 6.6 lakh doses.

10/n If the Government’s strategy is to prioritize first doses, then it must devise a plan accordingly, in discussion with states and communicate this to the public clearly. Right now, GoI seems to be simply reacting to events as they unfold without any plan.

11/n The vaccination strategy must be urgently reviewed and a coherent plan for the next few months in discussion with State Governments must be put in place, so that people do not miss their second doses or are not made to run from pillar to post in search of them.

COVAXIN Need Vs. Availability