So I tried to avoid commenting on this but well it’s gone viral so my 2 pence worth.

People need to both calm down about it...and use it.

1/
2/

In a way Burnham is 100% correct.
Brexit is reality.
& many remainers still seem stuck in 2019 when a single switch could have flipped it.
Those days are gone.
It’s over.

So the real debate is if you don’t like Brexit and want to overturn it - how do you do it?
3/

You can fight the 2024 election on overturning Brexit or you can try another way.

Now every poll I’ve seen shows no appetite for a 2nd referendum now and EVEN if there were it’s unclear that EU accession could happen anytime soon.

The EU would have to be clear we meant it.
4/

So how about try something else?

Accept the new reality.
But try to mold it.
Change the govt for one that wants to back industry & small exporters who need Europe. A party whose voters are younger & so want freedom of movement?

And in 2026 EU-UK review is due...
5/

We need “a better deal for Britain”.
If Burnham insists “a better Brexit”.

Because each improvement leads only one way.

But you need to be in the room making decisions.

And right now if you don’t accept reality..you won’t be in that room.

Simple as that.

And in 2026...
6/

In 2026 we have the chance to go for Erasmus, single market, customs Union even possibly freedom of movement.

But you won’t get there if you give Boris Johnson the culture war he wants.

So join Labour, PC & LibDems etc & fight & vote inside parties for a better Brexit...
7/

Because a better Brexit IS a soft Brexit and a soft Brexit is the take off point for rejoin.

There is no switch.
It’s a long slog.
So smile at the word “embrace” and get the Tories out.
Because whoever ends up as next Labour PM ain’t going to be a hard Brexiter....

/ends

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More from @nicktolhurst

13 May
+UPDATE+

Evidence emerging that highly placed members of the UK govt coordinated attacks on Keir Starmer & the Labour Party in the autumn on 2020 with members of senior BBC management & senior BBC journalists as criticism of PPE corruption & COVID deaths mounted.
2/

While it’s already well documented that Laura Kuenssberg had many private meetings Dominic Cummings what’s new about the latest information is the number of discreet meetings senior BBC management had with the govt - a sometimes together with BBC journalists.
3/

Of these the BBC executives who were helping to coordinate with the govt were 2 of the leading forces at the BBC:
Tim Davie &
Fran Unsworth

Davie in particular with Kuenssberg is understood to have had a numb er of meetings with Cummings last autumn.
Read 11 tweets
12 May
This is possibly the most disgusting article I’ve ever seen in a British mainstream newspaper. But if you just read it without context you might not realize it

Because everyone, Tom Newton Dunn regular BBC guest is glorifying...

...a wife murderer.

standard.co.uk/comment/keir-s…
2/

The whole article lauds Sun journalist John Kaye as a legend of Fleet Street.

Nowhere mentioned is that Kaye killed his 1st wife. Under normal legal process he’d have got life. But the Sun paid for best legal defence & got it reduced to manslaughter.

It doesn’t end there..
3/

A few months after a spell in psychiatric care he was taken back by ...the Sun.

Where he became that “legend of Fleet Street”.

And how did he do that...?
Read 6 tweets
11 May
Its hard to overstate how simply wrong & dangerously stupid this article by @JYDenham is.

Its also 1st time ive heard of the term "Anglo-centric British nationalism" which Denham clearly describes as an anti-immigrant nationalism that he approves of.

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
2/

"Immigration has been more disconcerting to this English sense of belonging than to those living in more diverse & mobile cities. Wanting politicians to stand up for English interests may mean expecting them to understand all these things."

IOW:
The real English are racists.
3/

The EU population of Hartlepool is 680.

Out of population of over 92 000.

Is an immigrant rate of 0.07% really impossible to combine with Denham's talk of "values of community, solidarity and place"?.

Because of these 680 people?
Read 4 tweets
11 May
Most counterfactuals are convoluted & unlikely but this one simple & plausible.

John Smith dying when he did was perhaps one of the biggest “sliding door moments” in recent British history.

27 years ago on this day...
So the counterfactual:

1. Smith wins 97 election
2. UK doesn’t join Iraq war
3. Carries out similar new Labour program but with greater ties to traditional Labour than Blair managed
4. Hands over to Blair before 2010 election
5. Blair & Obama set tone for west into 21 century
6. Blair narrowly loses 2015 election as voters tire of Labour after almost 2 decades & global recession bites
7. Tory successor is mainstream Cameron (-like) who steers to centre right.
8. Trumps victory in 2016 sends centerist voters back to Labour in 2020 & Ed Balls become PM.
Read 4 tweets
10 May
Every decade or so the media will claim a new political paradigm & how politics will “never return to old normal again”. Then a few years later all these articles are conveniently forgotten.

The same is true of the current “left & right don’t matter anymore it’s open vs closed”.
2/

Sure we are still working thru Brexit effect but one of the reasons why voting patterns are changing is simply economic..as always.

Older home owning working class people are in wealth terms miles ahead of graduates in London renting flats or even rooms into their 30s.
3/

This wealth divide trumps many things and to a certain extent even blurs the income divide.

Being an income poor pensioner in a paid off house worth £200 000+ is simply a different prospect than being a pensioner in a council house in the 1970s.

And this divide is growing.
Read 5 tweets
9 May
So now that the dust has settled on much of the elections - and away from the lazy media narrative the overall picture is a little bit more complex with good & bad news for Labour.

- a small post election thread -
2/

After the 2019 election debacle the new Labour leadership set its course on doing what most losing Social Democratic / left parties do in its position:
Holding back firm policy committments & instead rebuilding trust & competency & detoxifying the AS issue.
3/

Starmer is trying to copy what Labour did in mid1990s.
The good news first:
Its - partially - working.
..in the south graduate voters are turning their backs on Conservatives who just like the 1990s the Tories are becoming culturally unattractive to this demographic.
Read 12 tweets

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