So now that the dust has settled on much of the elections - and away from the lazy media narrative the overall picture is a little bit more complex with good & bad news for Labour.
- a small post election thread -
- a small post election thread -
2/
After the 2019 election debacle the new Labour leadership set its course on doing what most losing Social Democratic / left parties do in its position:
Holding back firm policy committments & instead rebuilding trust & competency & detoxifying the AS issue.
After the 2019 election debacle the new Labour leadership set its course on doing what most losing Social Democratic / left parties do in its position:
Holding back firm policy committments & instead rebuilding trust & competency & detoxifying the AS issue.
3/
Starmer is trying to copy what Labour did in mid1990s.
The good news first:
Its - partially - working.
..in the south graduate voters are turning their backs on Conservatives who just like the 1990s the Tories are becoming culturally unattractive to this demographic.
Starmer is trying to copy what Labour did in mid1990s.
The good news first:
Its - partially - working.
..in the south graduate voters are turning their backs on Conservatives who just like the 1990s the Tories are becoming culturally unattractive to this demographic.
4/
So far so good.
Unfortunately Brexit is effecting voters a bit different to how imagined.
Its not that voters are enthused by Brexit but see it as a "change of govt".
This explains how many leave voters confuse voting for the govt by "voting for change"
So far so good.
Unfortunately Brexit is effecting voters a bit different to how imagined.
Its not that voters are enthused by Brexit but see it as a "change of govt".
This explains how many leave voters confuse voting for the govt by "voting for change"
5/
In this reading many Leave voters view the current govt as categorically different from the Cameron one from 2010-16 - even tho the Conservative party contains many of the same people.
This is diffcult for many remainers to grasp - but is only explanation that makes sense.
In this reading many Leave voters view the current govt as categorically different from the Cameron one from 2010-16 - even tho the Conservative party contains many of the same people.
This is diffcult for many remainers to grasp - but is only explanation that makes sense.
6/
This explains the split emerging:
Labour recovering in areas that traditionally dont vote for it
But not recovering in Brexit areas that vote for even tho Labour has accepted there is no 2nd referendum on horizon
It also explains rise of LibDems as...
This explains the split emerging:
Labour recovering in areas that traditionally dont vote for it
But not recovering in Brexit areas that vote for even tho Labour has accepted there is no 2nd referendum on horizon
It also explains rise of LibDems as...
7/
The LibDem seat count rises (somewhat counter-intuitively) when Labour moves to the centre - as soft Tories no longer fear Labour and feel comfortable voting LibDem.
Exactly what happened in late 1990s.
But problems remain...
The LibDem seat count rises (somewhat counter-intuitively) when Labour moves to the centre - as soft Tories no longer fear Labour and feel comfortable voting LibDem.
Exactly what happened in late 1990s.
But problems remain...
8/
The Tories know this - but they believe culture wars not just around Brexit but around "brexity" cultural ideas and that post 2016 Conservatives are thus categorically different to pre 2016 Conservatives.
And guess what...its working.
So how do you defeat this...?
The Tories know this - but they believe culture wars not just around Brexit but around "brexity" cultural ideas and that post 2016 Conservatives are thus categorically different to pre 2016 Conservatives.
And guess what...its working.
So how do you defeat this...?
9/
Firstly how not to:
Dont keep the Brexit war going.
Dont fall into culture war traps.
What you do - must keep doing - is keep plugging away to voters on the continuity of the conservatives - Brexit or no Brexit.
Firstly how not to:
Dont keep the Brexit war going.
Dont fall into culture war traps.
What you do - must keep doing - is keep plugging away to voters on the continuity of the conservatives - Brexit or no Brexit.
10/ Starmer has been criticised for his caution - but hes only following the classic "post defeat - rebuild trust/competency 1st" strategy.
History will judge if he's done enough or done it well enough - but any leader would face the same dilemma.
But one thing is clear....
History will judge if he's done enough or done it well enough - but any leader would face the same dilemma.
But one thing is clear....
11/
The longer Labour allows itself to be portayed as wanting a 2nd referendum the easier it is for Johnson to portray himself as the real change - this plus good vaccination news in UK & western world gives him at least another 6 months without difficult polling questions.
The longer Labour allows itself to be portayed as wanting a 2nd referendum the easier it is for Johnson to portray himself as the real change - this plus good vaccination news in UK & western world gives him at least another 6 months without difficult polling questions.
12/
Remainers will bridle at this.
Some even suggest southern gains could compensate for losing more traditional Labour seats.
But this is a dangerous game and risks helping feed the very "labour have given up on Leave areas" narrative the Tories are trying so hard to promote.
Remainers will bridle at this.
Some even suggest southern gains could compensate for losing more traditional Labour seats.
But this is a dangerous game and risks helping feed the very "labour have given up on Leave areas" narrative the Tories are trying so hard to promote.
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