Successful investing is an active rebellion against one’s instinctual proclivity to sabotage long-term returns.

In a perfect world, investing is like gardening. You cut the weeds (losers) and water you flowers (winners).

In practice, investors do the opposite.
We tend to sell winning stocks too early (cutting the fruit) while desperately clinging to losing positions (watering the weeds).

This habit is called the Disposition Effect.
Coined by Shefrin and Statman in 1985, the Disposition effect explains the tendency for investors to cut their winners short while riding their losers lower.

It’s an academic way of saying, “most investors suck.”
In this essay, we’ll explain the Disposition Effect, why we fall victim to it, and how we can fight against our tendency to fall into its trap.

macro-ops.com/disposition-ef…

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More from @marketplunger1

13 May
There aren’t many investors compounding capital at double digits over the course of decades and those that do are already well known (i.e., that guy from Omaha). However, in a small office above a taco shop, a man did just that.

[THREAD]
Allan Mecham ran a hedge fund called Arlington Value who has demonstrated the advantage in simplicity, long-term thinking, and the power of compounding.

Arlington Value doesn’t have a large team of analysts.
They don’t run advanced machine-learning algorithms or exploit esoteric satellite data and there’s not a single distinguished diploma on their walls.
Read 11 tweets
12 May
Reading this 2003 blog post from @bgurley on Internet-based businesses and how many investors threw every dot-com business out with the bathwater.

Gurley offered 4 reasons why some companies worked when everyone thought they wouldn't.

[THREAD]
abovethecrowd.com/2003/04/23/dot…
1) They weren’t bad ideas:

"In fact many were good ideas. Were there too many consumer startups? Yes! But there were also too many software companies, semiconductor companies, telecom equipment companies, and the list goes on and on.
As we later learned, over-funding (i.e., too many startups with too much capital) was the key issue, not the particular investment category. Low-cost, high-scale marketplaces do in fact exhibit increasing returns.
Read 9 tweets
11 May
Love reading @RudivNiekerk investor letters. What he’s doing in South Africa is truly differentiated and special.

So I spent last weekend reviewing the African $AFK ETF and picked my favorite names in the space.

Here’s a thread on what I found 🇿🇦🇿🇦🇿🇦
Guaranty Bank (GUARANTY.NSE)

One of the cheapest biz I’ve seen in any market. The core banking segment generates 26% ROE with 51% NI margins. Expecting ~13% 2022 rev growth.

You can buy it for 4.5x current earnings w/ a 10% DY.
Mtn Nigeria Communication (MTNN)

Nigeria’s leading mobile operator. 76.5M subscribers and the #1 NPS score in its industry. 32% EBIT margins.

Largest mobile network w/ 49% smartphone penetration. Data rev up 57% YoY & will grow w/ smartphone adoption.

Can buy for ~8x EBIT.
Read 7 tweets
12 Apr
A week ago, @SagaPartners said something that's stuck with me:

"A potentially great idea is when no one agrees with you. A potentially bad idea is when no one agrees with you."

I've thought about some ways to help investors think about these two conundrums ...

[THREAD]
1/ Determine what you are disagreeing over.

If you're on two different "logic" planets, the argument will fail because nobody's gonna listen from that starting position.

Find common principles on why you're wrong and go from there.
2/ Give fair weight to your "opponents" POV and credentials.

If you're pitching a media stock and @AndrewRangeley is ripping it to shreds, that matters *WAY MORE* than say, someone like me who has issues with one or two points.

Respecting intellectual authority can only help
Read 8 tweets
6 Apr
Aswath Damodaran (@AswathDamodaran) is the valuation GOAT.

In this thread, we'll break down his "Narrative & Numbers" presentation.

We'll see the power (& danger) of using only numbers, and how storytelling can create a more complete thesis.

Enjoy👇
people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/pdfil…
1/ Setting The Stage

There's two types of investors: numbers (NUM) & storytellers (ST)

NUM believes EVERYTHING should focus on figures, stats, and $ amounts. To them, stories are distractions.

ST believe valuation is about great storytelling, and numbers are ignorant guises
2/ The Numbers People

There are 4 building blocks to NUM investing ethos:

- Accounting
- Modeling
- Data
- Valuation

Each block stresses great detail and precise conclusions. Here, the greater detail you provide, the more valuable your write-up/pitch
Read 14 tweets
25 Mar
🇬🇧 NEW UK REOPENING IDEA 🇬🇧

Meet: Loungers PLC $LGRS

LGRS operates restaurants across the UK under two brands, Lounge and Cosy Club.

What we like:

- 34% CROIC per site
- Growth CAPEX hides true FCF
- Founder-led
- Long runway for new sites

Dive in👇
macro-ops.com/loungers-plc-l…
1/ What Makes The $LGRS Experience Unique: The Lounge Sites

Lounges are 'homey' sites that feel like esoteric living rooms (this = lower maintenance capex!)

Each Lounge is unique to its location without overarching LGRS branding.

All-day offering, same menu at every location.
2/ What Makes The $LGRS Experience Unique: Cosy Club Sites

Think of Cosy Clubs as old-school high-end restaurants. The company houses its Clubs inside theatrical buildings that catch the eye.

LGRS generates higher sales and EBITDA (on average) in its Clubs versus Lounge sites.
Read 12 tweets

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