Comparison of Severe Adverse Events from Pfizer Vaccine vs.15 Months of COVID Hospitalization Risk
I’m trying to make sense of the relative risk of vaccine vs. virus for young people. Looking for help. @Humble_Analysis @gerdosi @AlexBerenson
I’m trying to make sense of the relative risk of vaccine vs. virus for young people. Looking for help. @Humble_Analysis @gerdosi @AlexBerenson
According to the data from the Pfizer trial, a 15 year old who takes the vaccine has an extra 0.3% risk of a “serious adverse event” in the seven weeks between first dose and one month after second dose. "Serious adverse event" basically means hospitalization or worse.
The cumulative rate of hospitalization of 5 to 17 year olds with covid over the past 15 months of exposure in the USA is 0.03%.
So the risk of serious adverse events from the vaccine is 8.9 times as big as the risk of hospitalization due to 15 months of covid exposure.
So the risk of serious adverse events from the vaccine is 8.9 times as big as the risk of hospitalization due to 15 months of covid exposure.
The situation for a 60 year old is very different. Here the risk from vaccine is only 0.13 times as large as the risk from covid.
This makes it look like getting the vaccine is a no-brainer yes for a 60 year old and a no-brainer no for a 15 year old.
This makes it look like getting the vaccine is a no-brainer yes for a 60 year old and a no-brainer no for a 15 year old.
If you can point out why this conclusion is not warranted, please do so!
Here is the math:
Here is the math:
Serious adverse event definition:
The hospitalization numbers are for “with covid”, not “because of covid” and may therefore be overstated.
In addition to these serious adverse events, shockingly large percentages of those vaccinated reported fatigue, headache, chills, and muscle pain that was severe enough to interfere with daily life.
@andrewbostom this topic is up your alley.
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