Two years ago there were 65,000 sheets of paper containing hand-written measurements of rainfall taken all across the UK & Ireland before 1960. Virtually all of the 5.28 million observations on these sheets were unavailable to climate scientists as they had never been digitised.
Thanks to @metoffice archives, these sheets were scanned & made openly available, but how could the observations be extracted?
3.3 million observations have been quality controlled, and combined into time series from 8485 rain gauges from 6095 locations.
This data will be used by @markpmcc & @metoffice to improve UK rainfall reconstruction (called HadUK-Grid).
Currently the all-UK gridded reconstructions extend back to 1862. With the #rainfallrescue dataset it should be possible to go back to 1836, and earlier for some regions.
The extension back to 1836 means we can put recent UK rainfall changes into a longer-term context. The drier winters in the 1840s and 1850s will be of interest to water companies planning for worst-case drought scenarios, for example.
None of this would have been possible without the 16,000+ volunteers, and especially those who have stayed with the project the whole way (Gill, Ian, Jacqui, John B, John O, Mike, Richard, Tim). We also relied on the amazing @the_zooniverse as the citizen science web platform.
We can now map out rainfall for historical extreme months that has never been possible before. For example, the Decembers in 1852 and 1853 were one of the wettest and driest on record for Scotland respectively.
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The 15,607 volunteers will today finish transcribing the last of the 65,000 sheets of 10-year monthly rainfall amounts for the UK, spanning 1677 to 1960.
Truly amazing to see 5+ million measurements rescued from paper to digital in such a short time.
Earth's climate has changed before for reasons nothing to do with human activity. Changes in the position of the continents, the sun's output, the number of volcanic eruptions, and the Earth's orbit have all influenced our planet's climate. Climate scientists study these reasons.
We know that none of those reasons can explain the warming measured since 1850. We also know that an increase in levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will warm the planet, just as we've observed. It is our emissions of CO₂ that dominates recent warming trends.
Since the 1830s scientists have known that the Earth's climate changes without any human influence, e.g. ice ages. Variations in the Earth's orbit, the location of the continents, the energy given off by the sun & the magnitude of volcanic eruptions can all affect the climate.
Before widespread use of thermometers in the mid-1800s the effects of a changing climate are seen in tree rings, ice cores, corals & other 'natural archives'. The 'little ice age' is the most recent period where natural factors changed the climate by a small but detectable amount
Today the IPCC released its Special Report on the implications of a global temperature increase of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, and whether it is physically possible & feasible to achieve this climate stabilisation. The Summary for Policymakers: report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_…
There are some key messages in the report. Bottom line: there is a substantial reduction in risks when stabilising at 1.5°C compared to 2°C; it is physically possible to achieve this lower stabilisation, but extremely challenging in infrastructure terms.
Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0°C of global warming above pre-industrial levels, with a likely range of 0.8°C to 1.2°C. Global warming is likely to reach 1.5°C between 2030 and 2052 if it continues to increase at the current rate.