In 2017 we've had a similar ranging formation and tap of the yearly VWAP before never touching it again that year.
Please read the following tweets including disclaimer :)
2017 Scenario:
2021 Scenario:
Difference here being that at number 5 we made a higher high and number 6 we made a lower low. Both of these didn't happen in the 2017 scenario.
Disclaimer: This is just an observation. Definitely take it with a big grain of salt. Just because something looks remotely similar doesn't mean it will happen again.
Always use different ideas and indicators for confluence to make your decision.
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Fun change I've went through in the past 6 months or so as my portfolio grew bigger:
I used to care more about missing out on gains than losing money itself. The opposite is now true.
I rather protect my capital and miss out on potential gains than take unecessary risks.
Of course you will still see me ape into small caps and go big on $alts etc.
The difference being that I pick the risks I take more carefully. I also focus on hedging my spot holding a lot more when I think there is a high probability of potential downside.
This change in mindset probably has to do with the fact that with a relatively smaller portfolio I was ready to take bigger risks to try and make the maximum amount of gains I could, within the current cycle.
Don't ask me for my exact reasoning. It's a bit of a mix between seeing the PA, some indicators and a gut feeling.
Of course it should be obvious this is no signal to all in long or go out of your regular trading risk management.
Just a though by me I wanted to share.
For everyone asking about how this would affect $alts:
$BTC and alts can move together but if BTC starts pumping out some big numbers each day, expect alts to go more risk-off and more money to flow into BTC.
ALT/BTC pairs may suffer a bit but USDT pairs should still be good.
1. You deposit 1 BTC and get 0.5 BTC bonus. 2. You first trade with the 1 BTC as usual. 3. If you were to lose your 1 BTC for some reason you'd move on to the 0.5 Bonus BTC. 4. ANY profits made with the 0.5 Bonus BTC are fully withdrawable. The 0.5 BTC itself isn't.
In Bitcoin's history, whenever a green Kumo twist has occurred (red to green), price has went on a big run.
This is a comparison between the 2013, 2017 and 2021 cycles.
Bonus Alpha at the end 📚
🔹Disclaimer
This is just a comparison between the three cycles.
I thought it would be interesting to see how previous results would translate into the current state of the market.
Do not use this as a way to determine your targets or entries. It's just one indicator with a low sample size. Always use other things and your own common sense as confluence. 👍