Thread by @asfandyarmir

"[The US withdrawal is] certainly not considered good news in China. Once the U.S. absolves itself from the material and moral responsibilities to Afghanistan, its approach to the country could become more flexible, pragmatic, and tactical in serving a broader agenda."

"For the past 20 years, China has demonstrated a contradictory attitude toward the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. On the one hand, China has seen America’s war, presence, and “manipulation” or “distortion” of Afghan politics as the cause of instability."

"[at the same time] China has consistently seen the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as godsends that blessed China with a golden “window of strategic opportunity” to develop its strength without alarming the United States after 2001."

"Beijing believed it could use “issues of shared concern”, including Afghanistan to neutralize America’s “hostile” policy toward China through “issue linkage”..."

"According to Chinese analysts I spoke with in Track II meetings in the past several months, China prepared for potential American “asks” at the very beginning of the Biden administration, including on North Korea, Afghanistan, Iran, and climate change."

"Chinese analysts have identified multiple ways that the U.S. will continue to exert influence. China believes the United States will maintain a sizable contingent of “unofficial” U.S. security personnel."

"In addition, Washington will continue to exert influence in Kabul via its extensive political networks...and patron-client arrangements with political elites in Afghanistan. These relationships will continue to play an important role in the politics of the country."

"For China, the troop withdrawal announced by President Joe Biden is aimed at closing “a humiliating chapter”...will liberate Washington from...burden of its “longest war” but give the U.S. operational freedom with less public scrutiny and reputational concern."

"What is possibly more critical and alarming for China is that once the U.S. formally ends its war in Afghanistan, it could once again use the country for tactical purposes in the region..."

"Within the framework of U.S.-China great-power competition, the prospect of Afghanistan becoming a battlefield for not only political influence but also security competition has grown significantly."

"...[Chinese analysts think] Ghani doesn’t stand much of a chance of surviving the power struggle with the Taliban in the years, if not months, to come...China would like to see a transitional government in Afghanistan followed by a general election to create a coalition..."

"...China would like to incorporate Afghanistan into [BRI]...China’s geo-economic interests in Afghanistan are consistent with [Pak] aspiration to turn itself into a regional trade hub. And Chinese support...reflects Beijing’s continued conviction [Pak] has an essential role..."

"...China is perfectly aware of how Pakistan exaggerates its control...plays competing sides of the conflict to advance its own interests. However...Chinese and Pakistani objectives in Afghanistan are aligned...that is particularly true in terms of countering India’s influence."

"In the short term, Beijing is concerned...Afghanistan will soon descend into chaos and will inevitably serve as a haven for Islamic extremism. But in the long run...Beijing fears that [US]...will now use the country to undermine China’s regional position and key interests." n/n