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14 May, 19 tweets, 6 min read
1) How fickle we all can be
2) For years, we were entertained by @elonmusk.

"Here is a meme", he said, "in which I like bitcoin".

"Yes", we replied, "this one sparks joy".
3) He did not pretend to have loyalty or deference to BTC. Or for that matter, to anything, really.

That is fine, we all thought. Deference to the system as it happens to exist is the innovation killer.
4) Tweets about BTC became tweets about DOGE, and we didn't bat an eye.

The world's most prominent businessman was tweeting about our industry.

If DOGE is what brings him joy, then fuck it, it brings us joy too.
5) DOGE boomed, and we rejoiced, and the media watched, perplexed.

I sometimes feel like the world is divided, these days, into people who understand memes and people who don't.

"But @elonmusk, DOGE is a joke! Why do you endorse it?"

Says someone who does not understand Elon.
6) People wonder why he chose DOGE, and why _we_, to some extent, chose it too.

Why choose something with no intrinsic value? Why choose something which is nothing but a meme?
7) Partially, I have to think, it's because @elonmusk is bored.

It's too easy, sometimes, to play everyone else's game. Sometimes you have to shake it up a bit to keep things interesting.

But partially, the fact that DOGE is a meme is the whole point of it.
8) Because, in the end, much of the world is made of memes. Some are just more codified than others.

9) What is value, really, but a meme that we endorse?

Well, that's not quite fair.

Bread has value. As shelter, and water, and music, and maybe math.

But gold, and dollars, and NFTs, and super bowls, and TSLA, and DOGE are all worth whatever we think they are.
10) He doesn't choose DOGE in spite of it having no intrinsic value.

He chooses it _because_ it's just a meme. Because so many things are, and so really, what makes DOGE any less real?
11) Gold, and dollars, and NFTs, and super bowls, and TSLA, and DOGE are all worth whatever we think they are.

And bitcoin.
12) We loved him when he moved from another meme to ours.

And then he chooses DOGE, and we clap, thinking he obviously still _also_ chooses BTC.

Don't say he didn't warn us.
13) Maybe it's because he was bored again.

"Today feels like a good day to cause a stir."

It wouldn't be the first time.
14) Maybe it's because we assumed he was "one of us".

@elonmusk will never be one of us because he'll never be one of any group, not exactly.

He contains multitudes. And if there's one thing multitudinous people hate, it's being put in a box.

15) We tried to put him in the BTC-maxi box, and so he had no choice but to find a way to escape.

16) But maybe--just maybe--we're forgetting about Occam's razor: that sometimes the simplest and cleanest explanation is the right one.

@elonmusk runs an electric car company. And BTC, like it or not, isn't the most energy efficient cryptocurrency.

17) The cries that BTC is dead because of its energy are missing the forest for the trees.

But that can't be our _only_ response to worries about its energy usage. At some point we have to engage.
18) Or maybe--like so many other things--his flirtation of BTC died at the hands of middlemen.

19) The world is increasingly fickle. Anything that goes up can go down. (And, sometimes, back up.)

That's always true, not just when it suits us.

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More from @SBF_Alameda

13 May
1) So on energy usage of BTC:

The profile will change long-term. Right now the main driver is from block rewards.

But as block rewards exponentially decay, those will become less relevant.

Long-term, there are really two core drivers.
2) First, transaction fees.

There's limited block space, and transactions will basically be bidding in auctions for those.

That means that greater demand for BTC transfers --> higher tx fees --> breakeven point with more miners --> more energy used.
3) So long-term energy used by BTC will scale with total demand for BTC transfers.

The other thing it scales with is security.

If anyone accumulates 51% hashrate they can attack the network.

So for BTC to be secure, it has to be prohibitively expensive to get 51% hashrate.
Read 8 tweets
4 May
1) For the first time, FTX is spending nontrivial amounts of money on branding. Why?
2) Well, first, why haven't we?

Because our core userbase doesn't really care.

Our core userbase has been, basically, you all who are reading this tweet.

And if you're reading this tweet, you already know way more about FTX than our brand will convey.
3) But there are a lot of other people in the world--people who haven't heard of most crypto exchanges.

And they've been bombarded for years with ads for a few high profile retail applications.

And those people are increasingly getting into crypto.
Read 6 tweets
3 May
1) A while ago I wrote up some thoughts on VCs:



Here are some updates:
2) One really refreshing change over the last decade has been the transition to "founder-friendly" VCs.

What does this mean, and why did it happen?
3) What it means, roughly, is VCs seeing themselves as helping and supporting the companies, not running them; and terms/etc. starting to reflect that.
Read 14 tweets
22 Apr
1) Can momentum exist?
2) NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
3) yes, it can
Read 24 tweets
19 Apr
1) A Tale of Two Crashes:

Coinbase, FTX, and the future of crypto.
2) Just over a year ago, crypto had its worst day ever.

BTC crashed roughly $4500 top to bottom, from $8k to $3500, stabilizing just over $5k.
3) And the industry almost ended, maybe.

Why?
Read 25 tweets
18 Apr
1) Some FTX facts today:

a) I don't think we had any downtime, which was great! And markets were decently liquid all things considered.

b) Withdrawals are ~1 hour backlogged, sorry -- we have ratelimts on #/sec to process, we'll take those up. (also, you know, gas.)
2) c) FTX has never clawed back anyone from liquidations of others.

We have, once in a while, ADL'ed, though those fills are at market or better.

But we never want to do that.

So we've jacked up BLP capacity to prevent it in the future.
3) And for anyone who got ADL'ed, today, we've just compensated your accounts with USD:

--if the ADL was good marked to now, you kept it
--if the ADL was bad marked to now, you got USD equal to the difference in market prices
Read 5 tweets

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