Thread by @gelliottmorris

Here's how Biden won in 2020, according to new numbers from Catalist:

1) A surge in turnout among black voters that pushed him over the line in AZ + GA
2) A shift toward Ds among whites, especially suburban college-educated ones, all over the country

economist.com/united-states/…

A lot of press has focused on Democratic losses among Hispanics, but important to look at the other side of the coin too (especially given that, uh, Biden won?). But R losses among whites amounted to far more votes, since they are a larger share of the electorate.

Catalist's numbers suggest a bigger problem for Rs. New voters in 2020 were about as blue as you'd expect based on their age, but much younger than the overall pop. GenZ will only continue to grow as a % of the electorate, & R gains with Latinos will not offset these deficits.

Rs managed to find a marginally winning message with Latinos last year. It may have been Trump-specific, maybe not, but "Ds are socialists and we'll give you jobs" only pushed Trump to 36% of the vote anyhow. They will have to adjust their message for a new generation.

2020 was the first election ever in which Gen X, Millennials and Gen Z made up a larger share of the electorate than Boomers + older generations. By 2032 (which is closer than it sounds!) Millennials + Gen Z will make up a majority of the electorate. They currently vote at D+20.

None of this is to say that the Republicans are doomed to permanent minority status. But we should not see Trump's modest gains with Latinos as proof that they have solved their demography problem. Their deficit with young people runs much deeper. /END

Just an FYI for people, when I say "minority" here I mean in the popular vote for presidential elections.

As to the math, even if Rs inch up to 40% of Latinos, the net gain on raw margin from growing Gen Y/Z share in a decade will still favor Ds.

https://twitter.com/LuckyRic10/status/1393285532411641856?s=20

(The point is NOT that Republicans gains among Latinos shouldn't concern Democrats, because any losses are worth re-evaluating, but that they aren't enough on their own to change the projected electoral future for the party. Meaningful gains will have to come from young ppl.)