Going through our monthly macro housing/econ deck (it's almost 400 slides)! 10 charts that caught my attention.
1/10: Apparently people buy homes even if mortgage rates aren't 3% or below.
2/10: Looks like mortgage lending is back to pre-COVID norms. Lenders saying 'easy' fell off a cliff in 2Q20 but now back to norm.
3/10: Builders jacked prices 16% YOY in April, about 4x the rate of appreciation pre-COVID.
4/10: Cost of renting a home getting pretty close to cost of owning. With SFR rents shooting higher it'll be interesting to see if/when blue and green lines cross below.
5/10: Good luck finding a home.
6/10: Spread between 'good time to buy home' & 'good time to sell home' has blown out (highest in a decade).
7/10: Average monthly student loan payment = $391. Two people in a household have saved over $9k in the last year if they've deferred payment during COVID. Nice down payment on a home in many parts of the country.
8/10: People REALLY like trucks (orange line). BTW, typically correlates nicely with new home construction trends.
9/10: Commodity prices are rising just a bit. No, lumber is not included in this index.
10/10: Biggest problem for businesses isn't poor sales (orange line), it's quality of labor (blue line).
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I did an April home builder commentary 🧵last week, switching to building material dealers this week (companies making/selling products to home builders). We asked, “What worries you the most, regarding your business & the remainder of 2021?” Here’s what followed…
“Material cost volatility degrading margins for the duration of the year; labor availability is a close second.”
“Continued supply chain disruptions and product availability.”
Here’s on the ground local home builder commentary from across the country per our April survey. A lot of builders are pressing the pause button &/or slowing things down until construction costs moderate & they can catch up with sales. Worries about buyer price ceilings too...
#Chicago home builder commentary: “We sold all of the homes we had in early 2021 & haven’t started anything new, & may not due to the cost of construction. Can’t hold pricing for clients longer than 45 days with rising material pricing.”
#Nashville home builder commentary: “Pray for lower lumber prices.”
Some interesting housing color from mid-April around the country home builder channel check. Bunch of market commentary to follow...will try to hit most top markets.
#SaltLakeCity home builder mid-April color: “Still have 10x buyers to available homes to buy. Went to 'highest/ best' offer system March 1st & offers over asking price are shocking. Most offers are 10+% over ask, that's after raised base prices $10K to $20K+ with each release.”
#Austin home builder mid-April color: “Super high demand. Volume controlled with release process, otherwise would be unbearable. Some price increases are $100K between releases.”