Thread by @sfrantzman

🧵 when there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas...and both will claim “victory”...what exactly was achieved.

Nothing.

We will hear analysis about how Israel achieved “quiet” and Hamas was able to test Israel’s defenses at the behest of Iran.

People suffered and died

This entire Gaza conflict was driven by Hamas, from the first rocket on Jerusalem, a carefully executed plan exploiting tensions. Israel walked into it, or rather slouched into it amid an internal political crisis and bad planning about how tensions in Jerusalem would boil over

A public recently released from lockdowns with simmering tensions was RADICALIZED by images on social media spread by both sides, youth went to fight, lunch and burn cities while authorities fiddled.

Israel once again saw some erosion in support abroad as opposition grew a bit in Congress...the peace deals with Gulf were not helped by this...coexistence is harmed, people are harmed. Security forces were strained.

Jordan and Lebanon saw clashes, Iran and its proxies learned a lot.

Absolutely zero was gained by Israel except the Prime Minister learned his opposition was divided more and Bennett left Lapid.

Public on edge.

Revealed Israel has serious problem with illegal weapons in many communities and simmering anger from Rahat to Umm al-Fahm, even Beit Safafa...and chance of more violence in West Bank.

Shortsighted decisions about Sheikh Jarrah and Al-Aqsa over Ramadan. And no learning curve for Israel here. Country will slouch back into a conflict like this again.

timeline.
-April Ramadan clashes in Jerusalem, WB
-May 4 Netanyahu loses mandate
-May 7 Iran says Israel can be defeated
-May 8 Israel police clash at Al-Aqsa
-May 10 Jerusalem Day clashes, Hamas fires rocket on Jerusalem
-May 11/12 Israel launches strikes on Gaza, clashes grow