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Seth Frantzman Profile picture
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15 May, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Want to know Iran's plan for the Hamas war on Israel. First of all the short article about IRGC Quds Force head Email Ghaani speaking with Hamas leader Haniyeh is one indication: tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/0…
However the BIG news is this article at Tasnim revealing the Iran war plan against Israel air defenses "therefore in the event of a multi-front war, this system will not be able to respond to rocket and missile attacks." tasnimnews.com/fa/news/1400/0…
This is no small report above, this is a sophisticated explanation of how Iran sees the war Hamas launched on May 10. Iran is testing Israel and it is using Hamas to do this. This is not just some "by chance" Hamas strikes here and there. This is a sophisticated war plan.
So far Israel's attempts at confronting it appear slow, pondering, slouching and lacking clarity or purpose. This is likely due to Israel's political impasse and other issues. There does not appear evidence Israel expected this conflict to happen.

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More from @sfrantzman

Seth Frantzman Profile picture
17 May
Thread: Israel worked hard to avoid civilian casualties in Gaza as it has increasingly done since 2014; but something has changed a bit over the last years. Israel’s attempt to manage the conflict with Hamas led to a desire for not having casualties among low level Hamas members
Israel says that it works hard, often with a lot of time invested in warning people to leave buildings before they are struck, which means Hamas members leave too. Israel says it does everything it can to avoid hurting civilians.
But the time taken to evacuate buildings means civilians and Hamas members evacuate. What’s strange is that there are mistakes where civilians are hit. It does appear Israel has worked hard to not have large numbers of militant casualties also.
Read 7 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
15 May
...the whole idea of purposely destroying a large building where the international media are...so they can all film it...how exactly does it hurt Hamas and help Israel...or is the goal of Israel's leaders just to kind of erode Israel's image internationally. Unclear.
...it seems to me Hamas has continued to rain down rockets on Tel Aviv...and Israel's "answer" is to blow up some building so it can be filmed...like that doesn't stop the rocket fire...
See
Read 6 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
15 May
THREAD: Can someone explain how this supposed Israeli "deception" using media worked to lure Hamas into tunnels?

Here's what we know, and the QUESTIONS it raises about timing and Hamas intel and what did/did not happen.

jpost.com/israel-news/id…
This is now becoming controversial because of allegations the IDF spokespeople misled foreign journalists (they didn't provide the same info to local journalists);
Prior to the evening's controversy, Israel had called up 9,000 more reservists "units from three brigades are readying plans for a ground incursion, pending approval by Israel's political leaders"...a ground attack plan was put in place, theguardian.com/world/2021/may…
Read 21 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
15 May
🧵 when there is a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas...and both will claim “victory”...what exactly was achieved.

Nothing.

We will hear analysis about how Israel achieved “quiet” and Hamas was able to test Israel’s defenses at the behest of Iran.

People suffered and died
This entire Gaza conflict was driven by Hamas, from the first rocket on Jerusalem, a carefully executed plan exploiting tensions. Israel walked into it, or rather slouched into it amid an internal political crisis and bad planning about how tensions in Jerusalem would boil over
A public recently released from lockdowns with simmering tensions was RADICALIZED by images on social media spread by both sides, youth went to fight, lunch and burn cities while authorities fiddled.
Read 8 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
14 May
Iran's Press TV appears to have inside info on Hamas tactics, going beyond most media reports about its strategy of trying overwhelm Iron Dome, and its attempt to hit infrastructure and airports
Iran says the "balance of power" has shifted, an indication of how closely it is watching Hamas tactics; presstv.com/Detail/2021/05…
More here; farsnews.ir/news/140002240…
Read 4 tweets
Seth Frantzman Profile picture
13 May
A lot of great threads out there on Hamas showcasing its drone capabilities; let me mention them first and then add a few things. video and it comes in the wake of Iran apparently using drones to attack Israel; Iran has used UAVs in the past #dronewars
What's new in the Hamas Shehab may be the design which is linked heavily to Iran's Ababil (ابابیل) and the Houthi Qasef, note @CalibreObscura explanation
Nick Waters @N_Waters89 has an excellent thread on this;
Read 10 tweets

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