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Abhishek Bagchi

@abishekbagchi

14 May

WB Elections: Decoding seats won by thin margin

Only 23% seats (67 out of 292) were won by less than 10,000 votes

Out of those 67, TMC won 37 and BJP won 30.

For TMC, it was 17% of total seats (37 out of 213) & for BJP, it was 39% (30 of 77)

results.eci.gov.in/Result2021/sta…

#Thread

BJP

9 seats were won by a margin between 5000-10,000 while 21 seats were won by margin of less than 5000

Least margin was in Dinhata constituency where BJP won by 57 votes

26 out of these 30 seats had Hindu population greater than 75% & yet margin of victory was wafer thin

TMC

24 seats were won by a margin between 5000-10,000 & 13 seats were won by margin of less than 5000

30 out of these 37 seats had Hindu population greater than 75% & yet TMC defeated BJP

Large number of them are from western Bengal where BJP had lead in Loksabha 2019

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Abhishek Bagchi

@abishekbagchi

4 May

@IamSourav_b

@IamSourav_b @sarkar_swati This is NOT how Indian politics work. Elites dont touch each other across party lines (Chidu & Lalu are exceptions, for reasons).

Revenge has been historically targeted against grass root workers, always.

Only 1 recent addition. SM handles, in payroll, engage in amplification

@IamSourav_b

@IamSourav_b @sarkar_swati Thats why:

1. No one was convicted in 2G & Coal scams post 2014
2. National Herald case was slowed down
3. Kamal Nath did NOT pursue Vyapam scam in his 1 yr tenure as CM
4. Bhupesh Baghel never went after Chitfund scams in Chhattisgarh during 15 yrs of BJP rule

Many examples

@IamSourav_b

@IamSourav_b @sarkar_swati If Modi pursues Bhaipo, TMC would immediately

1. Withdraw WB Board affiliation for 1000+ RSS schools
2. Close down Sakhas in districts
3. Start shooting BJP MLAs instead of workers
4. Book 20 trains & send WB Matuas to see condition of their brethren in Assam detention centres

Read 5 tweets

Abhishek Bagchi

@abishekbagchi

4 May

A genuine fieldwork from English media I saw in last few months. Captured 80% of points correctly

Santhals (~40% of population) & Kurmis (~38% of popln) shifted back to TMC from BJP since 2019 LS.

25 Hindu majority constituency BJP lost without a clue

news18.com/news/politics/…

-"Jai Guram" in all TMC rallies as opposed to "Jai Sri Ram"
- Tribal Sahityo Board, Tribal Academies
- Recognizing "Sarna" ritual practices

Everything helped TMC

But biggest factor was Chhatradhor Mahato & his umbrella org of 13 tribal communities, whose demands BJP MPs refused

Declaring Kurmali as official state language helped TMC hugely

1,000 Kurmi villages in Jangalmahal

750 in Jhargram alone with a 42% votes. In Purulia, 65% are Kurmis, while in Bankura & West Midnapore its around 15-16 %

Hinduism has many local variants which needs recognition

Read 4 tweets

Abhishek Bagchi

@abishekbagchi

2 May

Didnt want to comment about WB elections as there was too much noise in SM.

People not moving an inch from their homes were presenting expert views about winners & losers in WB constituencies

Heres my take after visiting 150+ constituencies in last 5 months in South Bengal

TMC had to execute 2 things:

- Retain hold in South & North 24 Parganas, Kolkata. 75 seats. Was tough particularly after Amphan fiasco

- Recover from total wipeout in Bankura, Purulia, Jhargram, Nadia & North Bengal

BJP had to do consolidate its LS positions & gain. It failed

From Day 0, TMC was very clear about their goals in bi-polar election.

To reach 45% vote share , TMC had to get

- 65% Muslim votes
- 35% Hindu women votes
- 30% Hindu male votes

They surpassed those numbers in every segment

BJP talked about corruption & minority appeasement

Read 4 tweets

Abhishek Bagchi

@abishekbagchi

22 Jun 20

@ArunudoyB

@ArunudoyB Entire thread @ArunudoyB da. You captured excellently the different aspects about constant swing of people pulse

I will add about the 4 different mood swings in last 1 year

-Post NRC Results (11 Lakh Bengali Hindu exclusion) - TMC Gained. Reflected in 3 Assembly By poll results

@ArunudoyB

@ArunudoyB -CAA passed & chαos across WB including train buπning - BJP gained hugely

- WB Govt hiding Covid deαths in first 3 weeks & finally admitting- BJP gained again

- Post Amphan - Centre giving only 1000 Crores while Central team admitted dαmage of 80K crores - TMC started gaining

@ArunudoyB

@ArunudoyB In LS 2019, BJP's vote share gain was almost entirely due to switching of αnti-TMC votes from Left front to BJP.

While TMC had actually increased its vote share by 3.5% , Left Front's vote had collapsed from 30% to 7.5%

hindustantimes.com/lok-sabha-elec…

Read 11 tweets