Latest Opinium poll spells post election trouble for Labour

* Voting intention shows 13 point Tory lead
* Con 44% vs Lab 31%
* Johnson has 17 point lead over Starmer as best prime minister
* A third (33%) of 2019 Labour voters want Starmer to resign

/
NB polls post election often amplify the result as a consequence of the coverage
When voters are asked who would be best as prime minister it’s 40% Johnson vs 23% Starmer.

This is both a boost for Johnson (up 8 points) and a drop for Starmer (down 6 points).
2019 Labour voters wobble:

Starmer’s net approval dropping from net +8% to -11%.

Mainly driven by a 30-point drop in his net ratings amongst 2019 Labour voters (from net +40% to net +10%), with a third (34%) of 2019 Labour voters now disapproving of his performance

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More from @SamCoatesSky

8 May
NEW

Blame game inside Labour escalating tonight 🔥

There's a fight over whether Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner should get the blame for elections as formal campaign head - or whether it should be Keir Starmer

Cont
Critics are suggesting Rayner should take the blame for Labour losses.

But other Labour sources defend her:

"Trying to blame Angela for the failures of this campaign which were entirely run by Keir's office, and Keir has himself said he will take responsibility for....
.... is as absurd as it is ridiculous.

Lab source cont: "(Sacking her would mean) sacrificing a working class female care worker because some North Londoner focus groupers can't connect with the North. Everybody knows his office ran the campaign".
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Polls have closed

Signs of Labour recriminations evident in anticipation of difficult results

As ballots are counted in Hartlepool, one question being asked internally is: was it wise of Labour to chose to hold the Hartlepool by-election on Super Thursday and dominate?

1/
2/ Remember political parties have a fair degree of control over when to hold a by-election caused by the departure of one of their own.

Holding Hartlepool today was Labour’s choice

Here’s the Institute for Government Cath Haddon on how Labour “could have taken a bit longer”
3/ Why might you have wanted to hold Hartlepool another time?

The main reason wd be to avoid it on the same day as the Tees Valley Metro Mayor vote.

Labour folk expect Tory Ben Houchen to be re-elected meaning his voters - also Tories - would already be out in force
Read 12 tweets
23 Mar
NEW: Matt Hancock sounds like he’s been upsetting Tory MPs again

Here leaked is the letter to MPs about the One-Year Coronavirus Act Review
Matt Hancock’s letter contains a contentious claim

That without the continuation of the Coronavirus Act the furlough act “would fall automatically”

🧐
But MPs tell me this isn’t true

They had it confirmed BOTH by Treasury officials AND by the Commons Library staff that this isn’t the case, and the furlough support isn’t contingent on this week’s vote

🙄
Read 4 tweets
3 Mar
It wont get the attention it deserves but Rishi Sunak's biggest giveaway over the next couple of years is the "Super Deduction"

It's costing a whopping £27 BILLION pounds
Yet despite the £27 billion price tag, the Office for Budget Responsibility has big questions.

Rather than boosting growth overall, "it provides companies with a very strong incentive to bring forward investment from future
periods"
The scale of spending - most of which takes place in 2021 and 2022 - may rise. And the benefits may be lower than predicted.

"We have applied a ‘very high’ uncertainty rating to the behavioural element and the overall costing", says the OBR
Read 7 tweets
16 Feb
Exclusive:

Every adult in the UK could receive both doses of a coronavirus vaccine by August or September "or maybe sooner if we need to", the head of the UK's Vaccine Taskforce Clive Dix has told Sky News

He tells me there is huge confidence about supply levels

Transcript
Asked if vaccine supply would arrive at the rate promised over the next three to six months, he replied: "Yes, definitely"

Pressed if this meant confidence every adult would get two jabs: "We're probably talking August time or September time all done, maybe sooner if we need to"
This is faster than government ministers suggested

Dominic Raab told @SophyRidgeSky two weeks ago: "Our target is that by September to have offered all the adult population a first dose, if we can do it faster than that great but that's the roadmap."

news.sky.com/story/covid-19…
Read 4 tweets
15 Feb
Boris Johnson just said everyone shd be very proud of the vaccine rollout
- Says there are still some people in top 4 groups should come forward to GP or 119
- Won’t confirm that he wants primary and secondary school at once (despite briefing that’s the intention).
- Rates of infection still very high
- Wants progress that is cautious but irreversible
- “If you have a large volume of circulation there’s a higher risk of new variants and greater risk of spreading out.
- “No vaccination programme is 100%” 👀
- We will set out dates if possible next Monday in roadmap. The dates are earliest we can do things. If we need to push them off
- Vaccine Passports? inevitable there will be great interest in ideas about showing you have had vaccine. That’s going to be in the mix down the road
Read 4 tweets

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