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Phil Kerpen Profile picture
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16 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The only thing CDC has been consistent about is their insane anti-children, anti-science take on everything. Disgraceful.
Take a remedial math course, @RWalensky.
Read your own website, @RWalensky.
I know @RWalensky just says whatever ignorant nonsense the White House political people tell her to. But no sympathy. She could resign any time.

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More from @kerpen

Phil Kerpen Profile picture
15 May
CDC says a lot of stupid and nonsensical things.

Maybe somebody in your teachers union understands basic arithmetic enough to explain this to you.

Even if the vaccines are 97% effective, the mortality risk for an unvaccinated child is lower than for vaccinated adults over 30.
Teachers unions demanded closures and masks long after it had been crystal clear COVID risk to kids was near zero. Because they could (though seldom did) infect adults.

Now all the adults have been offered vaccination! Enough!
And "the CDC says" from the same entity that corrupted the February schools guidance, overruling science with politics. I mean, really???
Read 5 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
15 May
This maniac still issuing absurd anti-child anti-science dictates.

This makes absolutely zero sense.

Even if the vaccines are 97% effective, the mortality risk for an unvaccinated child is lower than for vaccinated adults over 30.
And masking kids never been evidence-based anyway: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ap…
Unvaccinated children are at even lower risk than nearly all vaccinated adults.

There is no "infect grandma" scare story because she's been vaccinated.

There is no scientific case for anything but normal school.

Read 6 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
14 May
Friday Fluday Thread: Influenza-Like Illness Data for MMWR Week 18, ending May 8, 2021
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 18.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

2016 to 2019 4-year average: 853 cases; 7.09% positive

2020: 46; 0.57%
2021: 23; 0.07%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
United States Influenza testing, season to date (32 weeks, MMWR 40 to 18)

Five-year average: 208,466 cases; 18.28% positive

This year: 2,097; 0.14% Image
Read 32 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
14 May
Every age from 1 to 17 had an observed population fatality ratio of less than 1 in 100,000.
If we assume (based on latest UK estimate) that full mRNA vaccination lowers mortality 97%, unvaccinated children have mortality risk similar to vaccinated 30 year olds -- and far, far less than vaccinated older adults. 100 times lower than vaccinated 75+.
Should probably roll this back to an end date before the vaccine was available, but that would only make the point more strongly.
Read 5 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
7 May
Friday Fluday Thread: Influenza-Like Illness Data for MMWR Week 17, ending May 1, 2021
United States Influenza testing, MMWR week 17.

CDC flu view. cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ind…

2016 to 2019 4-year average: 1,243 cases; 8.50% positive
2020: 48; 0.41%
2021: 15; 0.05%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d… Image
United States Influenza testing, season to date (31 weeks, MMWR 40 to 17)

Five-year average: 206,764 cases; 18.45% positive

This year: 2,059; 0.14% Image
Read 34 tweets
Phil Kerpen Profile picture
4 May
The original (much worse than reality) Ferg model that shut down the world estimated R0 at 2.4.

Classic SIR formula of HIT = 1 - (1/R0) at 2.4 yield HIT of 58.3%.
Israel first dose as of today (58.15%) is still short of that and positivity rate went under 1% on April 4. If we look two weeks earlier than that on March 21 Israel was at 55.72% first dose and 49.16% fully vaxed. And decline was steep earlier.

datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/gener…
It is likely that very soon, perhaps today, Massachusetts and Vermont will be the first states to have a higher percent of total pop first dosed than Israel. And we likely have much more natural immunity than Israel from larger past waves. ~125 million Americans.
Read 4 tweets

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