1.THREAD on latest Sanger data on B.1.617.2 (new variant of concern).
Remember Sanger use all sequenced cases for England (about 50% all cases) and remove data from travellers and surge testing - so approx community cases.
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about
TLDR: nothing encouraging.
Remember Sanger use all sequenced cases for England (about 50% all cases) and remove data from travellers and surge testing - so approx community cases.
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about
TLDR: nothing encouraging.
2.Continued rapid increase of B.1.617.2 (a so-called "India" variant) to week ending 8 May. Other variants not doing much.
But B.1.617.2 now almost 30% of sequenced cases in England (!).
But B.1.617.2 now almost 30% of sequenced cases in England (!).
3.Regionally, it almost dominant now in North West and getting there (but more slowly) in London.
High proportions in SW and SE, but overall cases here v low. Need to keep an eye on the Midlands & East of England.
High proportions in SW and SE, but overall cases here v low. Need to keep an eye on the Midlands & East of England.
4.Looking at absolute weekly sequenced numbers, the rapid increase of B.1.617.2 compared to other variants (including its sibling B.1.617.1) is obvious.
And clear why SAGE worried it could be ~50% more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (our "Kent" variant).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
And clear why SAGE worried it could be ~50% more transmissible than B.1.1.7 (our "Kent" variant).
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
5.This data might still over-represent B.1.617.2 & there are ways it is could increase rapidly without being more transmissible.
But I think the simplest explanation is that it is more transmissbile & we are right to be worried. Precautionary principle suggests action now. /END
But I think the simplest explanation is that it is more transmissbile & we are right to be worried. Precautionary principle suggests action now. /END
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