SHORT THREAD:
I was on Sky News earlier where I explained why I thought test 4 (new variant test) for the next stage of the roadmap had not been met, because of B.1.617.2 (the so called "Indian" variant of concern). 1/5
I then also said what I, personally, thought that meant for next steps.
Added to these must be much more support for local teams to beat outbreaks *and* proper financial & practical support for those who test positive & contacts. Once in place, could enable safer opening. 2/5
@markaustintv pointed out that people would be shouting at the telly hearing me suggest delaying Monday's opening... this is what I said about that. 3/5
Public Health England just released an updated report on B.1.671.2 .
Cases more than doubled again in the last week (from 520 -> 1313).
Looking at "S gene" detection as a proxy, B.1.617.2 might already be dominant in London & NW (SW is mostly traveller cases). 4/5
I do get why people want to shout at me. It totally sucks. But I think (again, personal opinion) we just know too little about B.1.617.2 except that it's spreading rapidly & the risks are quite high.
The govt set out 4 tests for proceeding each stage of the roadmap. Tests 1 & 2 relate to vaccination, test 3 is hospitals in no danger of being overwhelmed and test 4 is that there are no new variant concerns.
Test 1-3 have been (easily) met, but I don't think Test 4 has. 2/18
Last Friday, Public Health England designated B.1.617.2 (an "Indian" variant) as a variant of concern because of worries that it was more transmissible than B.1.1.7 ("Kent") and cos we didn't know much about its response to vaccines.
It's become a VOC because it's been spreading so fast - and in the community.
PHE are pretty sure (MODERATE) it's *at least* as transmissible as our dominant "Kent" variant (B117) (RED rating). They are worried (AMBER) it might have some immune escape but don't know yet (LOW)
First, note that as overall cases have come down, we're sequencing *more* community cases - since early March about 50% of all postive PCR cases. This means estimates of spread are pretty good. And less bias from traveller data (all traveller +ves sequenced).
TLDR things are looking pretty good right now. Caveat is variants (which is a whole other thread). 1/16
Overall UK cases are hoevering at just over 2K a day and back to levels back at the end of last summer. We can see drop over Easter hols (partly due to less testing) - but clear that opening outdoor spaces & shops has not caused an uptick (good!!). 2/16
Looking at types of tests done, clear upticks in twice weekly rapid LFDs when schools are open.
The drop off in LFDs over last few weeks also obv. School kids doing them less? other people? no idea. But clearly govt aim for loads of people to do them not happening. 3/16
The Maldives have similar vax rates to us & the Seychelles much higher (full) vaccination rates
Below is fully vaccinated & then at least one dose of vaccine.
Both Maldives & Seychelles are using a mix of the Chinese vaccine (Sinopharm) and Astrozeneca.
Israel used Pfizer.
Both Seychelles and Maldives are currently experiencing huge Covid surges.
Here is the recent data from England from COG (genetics consortium for covid)
2.This includes data from travellers & surge testing
BUT overall picture is the same as for community cases from Sanger yesterday.
B1617 growing very fast & has overtaken all other variants of concern / under investigation (except B117 ("Kent") which is still >90% of cases).
3.Look at the number each week, you can see that the other main variants are hardly growing. B117 cases ("Kent") are also going down (which is why our overall case numbers are falling).
But this variant, B1617 ("India"), is still shooting up.