SHORT THREAD:
I was on Sky News earlier where I explained why I thought test 4 (new variant test) for the next stage of the roadmap had not been met, because of B.1.617.2 (the so called "Indian" variant of concern). 1/5
I then also said what I, personally, thought that meant for next steps.

Added to these must be much more support for local teams to beat outbreaks *and* proper financial & practical support for those who test positive & contacts. Once in place, could enable safer opening. 2/5
@markaustintv pointed out that people would be shouting at the telly hearing me suggest delaying Monday's opening... this is what I said about that. 3/5
Public Health England just released an updated report on B.1.671.2 .
Cases more than doubled again in the last week (from 520 -> 1313).
Looking at "S gene" detection as a proxy, B.1.617.2 might already be dominant in London & NW (SW is mostly traveller cases). 4/5
I do get why people want to shout at me. It totally sucks. But I think (again, personal opinion) we just know too little about B.1.617.2 except that it's spreading rapidly & the risks are quite high.

Below is from this week's SAGE paper from Warwick.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 5/5

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Prof. Christina Pagel

Prof. Christina Pagel Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @chrischirp

12 May
THREAD - my thoughts on variant situation:

I've been tweeting about it a lot but much has happened in last day.

@guardian today quoted me saying that my personal feeling was we should delay next stage of Roadmap.

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…

Let me explain why... 1/18
The govt set out 4 tests for proceeding each stage of the roadmap. Tests 1 & 2 relate to vaccination, test 3 is hospitals in no danger of being overwhelmed and test 4 is that there are no new variant concerns.

Test 1-3 have been (easily) met, but I don't think Test 4 has. 2/18
Last Friday, Public Health England designated B.1.617.2 (an "Indian" variant) as a variant of concern because of worries that it was more transmissible than B.1.1.7 ("Kent") and cos we didn't know much about its response to vaccines.

What has happened since? 3/18
Read 18 tweets
10 May
THREAD on latest data on B.1.617.2 (an "India" Variant) in England.

The Sanger Institute released its latest sequencing data for variants in England today
covid19.sanger.ac.uk/about

TLDR: it's not looking good at all. 1/6
Sanger removes cases from travellers to England & from surge testing to get a picture of what is happening in the community.

In England, within TWO weeks to 1 May, B.1.617.2 (the new variant of concern) went from 1% to 11% of cases. Other variants <1%.

A massive increase. 2/6
This is concentrated in a few regions: London, the NW (quickest rise), East of England and then E Midlands & SE.

PHE also highlighted London and NW as particularly concerning in its Friday report
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl… 3/6
Read 7 tweets
7 May
THREAD on new Variant of Concern (VOC), B.1.617.2:

PHE released its report on B.1.617.2. It has loads of info - some quite disturbing.

I'll try to go through the key bits in this thread.

Full doc is here: assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

all graphs use their data. 17 tweets.
It's become a VOC because it's been spreading so fast - and in the community.

PHE are pretty sure (MODERATE) it's *at least* as transmissible as our dominant "Kent" variant (B117) (RED rating). They are worried (AMBER) it might have some immune escape but don't know yet (LOW)
First, note that as overall cases have come down, we're sequencing *more* community cases - since early March about 50% of all postive PCR cases. This means estimates of spread are pretty good. And less bias from traveller data (all traveller +ves sequenced).
Read 18 tweets
7 May
THREAD on latest Covid situation in the UK:

TLDR things are looking pretty good right now. Caveat is variants (which is a whole other thread). 1/16
Overall UK cases are hoevering at just over 2K a day and back to levels back at the end of last summer. We can see drop over Easter hols (partly due to less testing) - but clear that opening outdoor spaces & shops has not caused an uptick (good!!). 2/16
Looking at types of tests done, clear upticks in twice weekly rapid LFDs when schools are open.

The drop off in LFDs over last few weeks also obv. School kids doing them less? other people? no idea. But clearly govt aim for loads of people to do them not happening. 3/16
Read 16 tweets
5 May
The Maldives have similar vax rates to us & the Seychelles much higher (full) vaccination rates

Below is fully vaccinated & then at least one dose of vaccine.
Both Maldives & Seychelles are using a mix of the Chinese vaccine (Sinopharm) and Astrozeneca.
Israel used Pfizer.
Both Seychelles and Maldives are currently experiencing huge Covid surges.

The Seychelles has just locked down for two weeks. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
I don't know why the Seychelles experience is so different from Israel.

One difference is that Israel has had longer with a high percentage of fully vaxxed people. It also used a different vaccine.
Read 4 tweets
4 May
THREAD on B1617 from COG data:

Yesterday I did some tweets about the growth of B1617 ("India") and its subtypes in the community using data from the Sanger Inst (England only).


Here is the recent data from England from COG (genetics consortium for covid)
2.This includes data from travellers & surge testing

BUT overall picture is the same as for community cases from Sanger yesterday.

B1617 growing very fast & has overtaken all other variants of concern / under investigation (except B117 ("Kent") which is still >90% of cases). Image
3.Look at the number each week, you can see that the other main variants are hardly growing. B117 cases ("Kent") are also going down (which is why our overall case numbers are falling).

But this variant, B1617 ("India"), is still shooting up. Image
Read 7 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(