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17 May, 4 tweets, 2 min read
.@vonderleyen’s response to @DavidGHFrost’s comments on the “unsustainable” NI Protocol👇

The problem with her position is: he’s right.

The problem with his position is ... his Brexit deal.

It’s that which is unsustainable. Fundamentally flawed. Unworkable. And he knows it./1.
There are many & varied, often highly debatable, claims as to what Brexit’s “about”.

One point, at least, is beyond any reasonable challenge.

Brexit is & always has been necessarily, unavoidably about Ireland. /2.
The legal & political realities are clear. The only workable, sustainable Brexit for the UK of Great Britain & Northern Ireland is one in which it remains in (or now rejoins) the EU customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. All else is hot air. /3.
A “senior ally” of @BorisJohnson - presumably someone very well known indeed to @DavidGHFrost - was quoted by @Telegraph this weekend as saying the NI Protocol is “dead in the water”.

Some thoughts on that 👇/4. End

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More from @AndrewPRLevi

Andrew Levi Profile picture
15 May
We don’t know who the “senior ally” of @BorisJohnson quoted by @Telegraph is. We can guess. @DavidGHFrost well knows that if the Northern Ireland Protocol is “dead in the water”, so is the “oven-ready” Brexit. Either that or the Good Friday Agreement. /1.

telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/…
So, which is it, folks? The “senior ally” complains that the NIP breaks the GFA. That means Boris’ Brexit does. Recall: we’re talking about a legally binding international agreement. And we know @BorisJohnson @DavidGHFrost & the Cabinet would never break international law. /2.
Obviously that also means they would never countenance a border across Ireland. We all know the upshot of all that is the UK has to accept the need to return to the EU’s customs union & single market. Or substantially identical arrangements. /3.
Read 20 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
15 May
Read @LordRickettsP’s book, “Hard Choices: What Britain Does Next”. You simply won’t get a better account anywhere of what it’s been like trying to guide the UK through the tectonic shifts of global power these last few decades. You’ll learn much. If you’re willing. /1.
No one who knows @LordRickettsP - considerate, calm, clear-sighted - would think of him as brutal. But don’t be fooled. His book isn’t for the faint of heart. If this extract strikes a chord with you, you’ll want to read more. If it doesn’t, you need to.👇/2.
As @LordRickettsP says, quoting Thucydides: “The strong do what they can & the weak suffer what they must”. And, as others have pointed out: on the global stage, all European powers are small. The difference lies between those who’ve understood that & those who haven’t. /3.
Read 4 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
13 May
What’s fascinating about @lewis_goodall’s report👇of @ukhomeoffice reaction after a senior police officer in Glasgow decided to release people detained by UK officials is the begged questions.

Who are “the frontline”?

Which is “our country”?

Who’s in charge?

A🧵/1. Image
Clearly, there were two “frontlines” in this case (not counting what the HO described as a “mob”): UK immigration officials, & the (Scottish) police. /2.
And there are two countries. The UK. And Scotland. That’s far from a purely historical, emotional or cultural point. Although it’s that too. It’s a political, legal & operational one. As we saw in Glasgow earlier. /3.
Read 11 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
12 May
The Covid inquiry indicated by ⁦@BorisJohnson⁩ will be in the context of over 1M people bereaved by the disease in the UK.

1M could have been avoided, it appears, if the govt hadn’t made multiple, serious errors.

Who cares?

A 🧵/1. pnas.org/content/117/30…
UK vaccine distribution, which has been better than many, worse than some, doesn’t bring dead people back. Nor does it reverse bereavement. Of 130,000 Covid deaths in the UK, the vast majority were entirely avoidable. /2.
Even taking a lenient view of a series of catastrophic failures last year, 100,000 were. US research suggests a “kin bereavement multiplier” of 9. This looks at family, not friends. Including the latter would give a higher multiplier. /3.
Read 7 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
12 May
People who don’t understand French, or the EU, or immigration & frontier control, really shouldn’t comment on @MichelBarnier talking (in French) about those subjects.

There’s a lot of it about.

Want the truth? A short 🧵/1.
.@MichelBarnier’s saying:

▪️the EU should strengthen the Schengen external frontier. (Note: the UK wasn’t in Schengen); /2.
▪️France, a sovereign nation in the EU, while still allowing students & refugees to come, should pause immigration from non-EU countries for a few years. /3.
Read 9 tweets
Andrew Levi Profile picture
10 May
Did Scotland vote for an independence referendum?

Yes. The parliamentary election on 6 May returned a majority of MSPs from parties with it as a manifesto commitment. A prominent one (obviously).

Full stop.

But, if you want to play Vote Count Lotto, do it properly.

A 🧵. /1.
For that, you need to know what the Scottish electoral system is. And, if you do know, acknowledge its nature & implications.

So, a recap. Bear with me. /2.
It’s a form of proportional representation. Specifically, an “additional member” system. Somewhat over half the seats are voted for on a constituency basis (“first past the post” or plurality voting: whoever gets the most votes wins the seat). /3.
Read 17 tweets

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