1/n There's an awful lot of conflations going on around the lab-leak COVID_19 claims, since they first emerged last year; I suspect some of the conflations are deliberate, to lend emo force (of implied claim A) to much milder claim B. So let's look at the competing options
Option 1: no lab leak. Virus came in from the wild, most likely through wild animals captured for the wet markets, mutated a little, had a couple of small super-spreader events in Wuhan & surrounds, took off from there.
Pro's of option 1.
This is what viruses do. This is what many viruses have done (e.g. measles, the flu)- They mutate, and jump, if they can, from species to species. No further explanation really necessary.
This is what viruses do. This is what many viruses have done (e.g. measles, the flu)- They mutate, and jump, if they can, from species to species. No further explanation really necessary.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394473457019244544
Option 2:
The Wuhan lab was studying bat coronaviruses, because it's a danger area for coronaviruses around there, remember SARS??? Somebody failed at protocols, there was a leak, so naturally mutated virus leaked out, caught fire.
The Wuhan lab was studying bat coronaviruses, because it's a danger area for coronaviruses around there, remember SARS??? Somebody failed at protocols, there was a leak, so naturally mutated virus leaked out, caught fire.
Pro's of Option 2:
again, like the natural species-jump in Option 1, this happens. It's rare, usually labs try very hard to ensure it never happens, but leaks can and do happen sometimes, especially in not-so-well-run labs. Plausible, but no real evidence
again, like the natural species-jump in Option 1, this happens. It's rare, usually labs try very hard to ensure it never happens, but leaks can and do happen sometimes, especially in not-so-well-run labs. Plausible, but no real evidence
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394474717252362257
Option 3: omg, GoF, which means gain of function, which means studying viruses to see what they do next, if you change some itty-bit. These experiments are debatable, but one learns what viruses *can* do from them. Know your enemy! Then option 2, accidental leak.
Con's of Option 3:
much blather about precisely this, but so far zero evidence for it that is really compelling. The furin cleavage argument is a non-starter, & was very quickly refuted last year, only some refused to listen.
Possible but unlikely.
much blather about precisely this, but so far zero evidence for it that is really compelling. The furin cleavage argument is a non-starter, & was very quickly refuted last year, only some refused to listen.
Possible but unlikely.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394475900113231873
Option 4: omg they deliberately tried to make the virus worse, because they're evil, & it escaped on them!
Con's: this is stupid. There are better viruses to weaponize; why bother with a very non-choosy virus with enormous spreading potential? It makes ZERO sense as a weapon
Con's: this is stupid. There are better viruses to weaponize; why bother with a very non-choosy virus with enormous spreading potential? It makes ZERO sense as a weapon
Option 5:
like Option 4, only they deliberately let it loose, in Wuhan and elsewhere in China.
10x, 100x, 1000x the stupidity of Option 4.
like Option 4, only they deliberately let it loose, in Wuhan and elsewhere in China.
10x, 100x, 1000x the stupidity of Option 4.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394479238376472578
So: what people are usually claiming is Option 2 or 3, but with the underlying emo force of faintly implied Option 4. You see the dishonesty.
Those expressly claiming Option 4 or 5 are just nutcases.
Those expressly claiming Option 4 or 5 are just nutcases.
finally we come to the China regime, who add their own insanity to the mix. Refrigerated food! they cry. Utter bollocks; it was insanely bad agitprop from the Chinese regime, who in fact tried blaming it all on India.
LUDICROUSLY illogical & implausible
LUDICROUSLY illogical & implausible
https://twitter.com/White_Shadow81/status/1394476428331077633
Except anthrax actually makes sense as a bioweapon. It's a bacterium, not a virus; FAR more easily handled, in its spores; and with very limited area effect, i.e. you don't need to worry about it spreading wildly to your own troops, so to speak.
https://twitter.com/BurgersAllday/status/1394481604953841666
Option 6: some disgruntled person deliberately set the virus loose. Except, WHY exactly??? SARSCoV2 is a novel virus; no-one knew what it could actually do until it did it on a big scale in Wuhan. Why would Disgruntled Person X bother with a novel virus of unknown potential?
Option 6 is a real non-starter. No-one could tell what its R0 would be till it got out in a big way. If you want a killer, reverse-engineer a new smallpox on top of horsepox or similar. Can be done, the genome is known.
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394487902390849536
and even if you wanted to go old-style CIA and study only how a viral outbreak would look, again Y THO pick a novel virus, whose effects at large you simply don't know?? Choose a virus you know well already, not some exotic, unknown newbie
https://twitter.com/Gurdur/status/1394487902390849536
b/c Occam's razor. Viruses gain function naturally too.
Option 1: all natural. Happens. See measles, HIV, Nipah.
Option 3: GoF experiments on naturally occurring viruses PLUS accidental leak. Like I said, possible, but so far no *compelling* evidence.
Option 1: all natural. Happens. See measles, HIV, Nipah.
Option 3: GoF experiments on naturally occurring viruses PLUS accidental leak. Like I said, possible, but so far no *compelling* evidence.
https://twitter.com/dmuney_/status/1394490716869459976
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