Thread by @chrischirp

THREAD on schools, kids & Bolton:

I think we need to talk again about making schools safer as B.1.617.2 (new variant) spreads.

Case rates in school age kids in Bolton are very high - higher in 5 - 14 yr olds than they've ever been.

Surge testing likely some of it, but not all

Cases in over 20s are going up steeply in younger adults - mostly not vaxxed.

Over 50s (mostly partially vaxxed) going up steeply but lower rates and over 60s (mostly fully vaxxed) the least.

Vaccination is helping & cases rates in all over 20s much lower than Oct & Jan peaks

But if we look at under 20s (unvaxxed) it looks different. Over 15s (some in school, some not) going up steeply but not yet at Oct peak.

5-9 & 10-14 yr olds a *lot* higher than they've ever been.

Under 4's climbing steeply but not higher yet than previous peak.

Lateral Flow (rapid) tests have been flat over last few weeks so can't explain it (and 5-9 yr olds don't do them anyway).

Surge testing will def explain some, but not why school age relatively so much higher than other age groups compared to prev peaks.

We know that there have been several reports of B.1.617.2 outbreaks in schools in England - and Heads reporting anecdotally that it seems to spread quickly and infect whole families (and 30-49 yr olds are higher than twenty-somethings right now)

Here are some examples:
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
nottinghampost.com/news/nottingha…

https://twitter.com/BBCEssex/status/1394626148504592385

in fact here is a whole up-to-date thread on school outbreaks compiled by @fascinatorfun.

I wish PHE would compile a comprehensive list & publish it.

We also know that Singapore is so worried about school spread of B.1.617.2 there that it has moved teaching online as a precaution citing increased cases in children.

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

We know that ONS survey (with matched controls) reported that 10-13% of 2-16 yr olds with confirmed covid experienced symptoms for more than 5 weeks.

7-8% of 2-16 yr olds experienced symptoms for more than 12 weeks.

We can't ignore long covid in kids

ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

The *best* way to make schools safer is to keep community transmission *low* - we saw cases go up in kids in March when Covid was more prevalent but little effect of school since Easter with much lower community rates.

BUT Bolton shows cases can climb rapidly...

When cases climb out of control, schools can become amplifying places - there is a lot of mixing in a mostly unvaccinated population.

For schools to stay open safely, govt needs to get community cases down AND implement other protective measures
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

It's NOT fine to accept such high rates in children just cos v few need hospital.

Long covid affects about 1 in 10
high cases disrupt education (disproportionately disadvantaged)
high cases spread to rest of community.

If B.1.617.2 spreads, we must make schools safer. /END