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Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

21 May

1/Let's talk about something calming and uplifting.

Wait...no. Forget about that. Instead let's talk about THE FUTURE OF WAR.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-future-o…

2/You know how eventually new technologies get used for every conceivable business application?

Well guess what. They get used for non-business applications too.

3/Let's start with drones.

In a 2014 post I argued that drones would end the age of human dominance of the battlefield...

qz.com/185945/drones-…

Read 20 tweets

Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

19 May

1/Here's a thread of a recent post of mine that got a fair amount of attention.

It's about growing illiberalism around the world.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-darkness

2/We see a lot of scary stories in the news lately. Here's just a small sample.

3/But headlines are just headlines, right? Surely there are always bad things happening around the world.

Unfortunately, our best data confirms that human rights and political freedoms are in retreat around the world.

freedomhouse.org/report/freedom…

Read 23 tweets

Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

18 May

A friend of mine who made a movie in Israel & Palestine (jerusalemthemovie.com) pointed out that while everyone talks about Gaza, it's the West Bank where Israel has supported settlements, restricted freedom of movement, and created a huge state apparatus of repression.

And while Israel's defenders always talk about Palestinians' desire to ethnically cleanse or genocide the Israeli Jews, it's also true that Israel's settlement program in the West Bank -- which is what all the oppression is in support of -- is also an ethnic cleansing attempt.

Israel didn't have to support those settlements. Those settlements are not necessary for Israel's continued existence or defense. Israel's right-wing leaders obviously hope that eventually they can force West Bank Palestinians to outmigrate.

Read 9 tweets

Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

17 May

Here is Seychelles' COVID outbreak compared to India's.

37% of infected people have received both doses of China's Sinopharm vaccine.

cnbc.com/2021/05/13/sey…

I am concerned about the efficacy of this vaccine.

Here are daily deaths per million in Seychelles, compared to India.

Also quite worrying.

Here is Bahrain, also heavily vaccinated with Sinopharm. (56.5% with first doses)

Read 6 tweets

Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

17 May

Let's look at some case counts for states with high vaccination rates.

New Hampshire has given at least one dose to 84.9% of its population.

Vermont has given at least one dose to 65.2% of its population.

Massachusetts has given at least one dose to 62.4% of its population.

Read 11 tweets

Noah Smith 🐇

@Noahpinion

12 May

@bopinion

1/Today's @bopinion post (actually yesterday's) is about inflation!

There are two big things everyone needs to understand about inflation, and neither of them concerns the price of lumber or cars.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…

2/We are now seeing strong month-on-month inflation (~7.2% month-on-month, ~3.6% core).

Keep an eye on month-on-month numbers, not on year-on-year numbers.

This is a fairly substantial rate of inflation. But should we be worried?

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

3/What we're seeing now is cost-push inflation.

Supply crunches and bottlenecks are raising prices.

This is not scary, because cost-push inflation is never very large.

So what causes the scary kind of inflation -- the high, sustained, out-of-control kind?

Read 14 tweets

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