Thread by @Noahpinion

1/Let's talk about something calming and uplifting.

Wait...no. Forget about that. Instead let's talk about THE FUTURE OF WAR.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-future-o…

2/You know how eventually new technologies get used for every conceivable business application?

Well guess what. They get used for non-business applications too.

3/Let's start with drones.

In a 2014 post I argued that drones would end the age of human dominance of the battlefield...

qz.com/185945/drones-…

4/In 2020, reading about the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, it was like I was watching my prediction come true in real time.

washingtonpost.com/world/europe/n…

5/If you want to feel a shiver run up your spine, read this blog post cataloguing (with visual evidence!) all the Armenian armored vehicles -- tanks, missile launchers, transports, artillery -- destroyed by Azerbaijan's drones.

oryxspioenkop.com/2020/09/the-fi…

6/But these are traditional fuel-powered aircraft. What happens as Li-ion batteries get better, allowing little quadcopters to swarm the skies?

Already, militaries are finding uses for them.

https://twitter.com/Jake_Hanrahan/status/1395462622816899076

7/And what happens when you add A.I.?

Britain's air force is already testing networked autonomous drone swarms as a way to overwhelm enemy radar systems.

thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3…

8/And what happens when drones are able to buzz around looking for a specific person to assassinate?

Does that kind of warfare ever actually end?

9/Now on to cyberwar.

Speaking of types of warfare that never end, did you see the other day how America's biggest and most important fuel pipeline was hacked and taken down?

zdnet.com/article/coloni…

10/And did you notice in 2020 when Russian government hackers compromised our entire government, including parts that oversee nuclear weapons?

politico.com/news/2020/12/1…

11/Or how about when China and India had a border dispute, and Chinese hackers probably took out Mumbai's electricity? reuters.com/article/us-ind…

12/Can cyberwar be defended against? More importantly, can it even be DETERRED? Or is this just the permanent new normal?

13/And how about info ops?

Is it just to be expected that great powers will continually try to destabilize each other and foment unrest with trolls and bots on social media?

forbes.com/sites/robpegor…

14/And does this give autocracies, who control social media closely, an inherent advantage over open societies?

I hope not!!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-super-sc…

15/Now on to the scariest of scary possibilities: Biowarfare.

No, COVID-19 wasn't a biological attack. But it made us all realize how little it takes to disrupt economies with a virus!

16/Crispr technology and DNA synthesis make the possibility of engineered bioweapons far scarier than before.

cen.acs.org/biological-che…

17/As with assassin drones, cyberwar, and info ops, the big question when it comes to biological warfare is: How do you deter it? How do you detect it and retaliate?

We just have no idea yet.

18/We may yet have another WW2-style war or nuclear holocaust. I hope to hell not.

But what we might also get is a kind of endless low-level "gray zone" warfare, where countries relentlessly try to erode and disrupt each other's societies and economies.

news.com.au/technology/inn…

19/New technology has changed commerce. It has changed society. Now, inevitably, it is changing war.

And we need to find ways to deal with those changes, so that we can preserve peace.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-future-o…

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