Debt is not a source of returns. It’s an amplifier. It’s a way of taking good returns and making them better. Or taking mediocre returns and creating problems.
Let’s state the obvious: With perfect information, you’d always employ max leverage.
The challenge is that the world is messy and unpredictable. We think we’re far more in control than we are. People go off the rails. Pandemics hit. The price of oil goes negative. Digital shared fictions become a $1T asset class. Musical chairs look available until they’re not.
In the complicated real world, debt removes options and creates fragility. When stuff happens, you always have less available resources with debt. Sometimes you need to fix a problem. Other times you need to take advantage of opportunity.
Debt reduces your ability to do either.
Most only consider the downside with debt — things get sideways and your lenders own/run the company.
But, you also sacrifice reinvestment opportunities, which is why private equity is not known for their long-term, thoughtful, and generous capital allocation.
If you have a business with no problems and no opportunities, debt is your best buddy. Buy him another round of drinks and let the good times roll.
For the rest of us, it comes down to judgement around how much I’m willing to give up and get in various situations.
Debt to fund transactions introduces underwriting uncertainty and complexity, invites more cooks in the kitchen, slows down an already difficult process, and places pressure on a business at the exact wrong time.
Can debt make them sweat? Sure. It can also cause heat stroke.
For @permanentequity, keeping transactions simple is valuable, maintaining optionality is crucial, and giving our companies the best shot at making good long term decisions with abundant resources is priceless.
But, we’re also necessarily underperforming in hindsight too.
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I get it Neville. I too thought similar things at one time, but decided to dig in and study Jesus. What I found surprised me and amazed me. I think it would surprise you too.
Here's a summary of what I learned in case it's helpful.
Jesus was a radical whose ideas turned the world upside down.
He believed in the inherent value of all human life, which is the basis for human rights. He fiercely defended the poor and oppressed, condemning only the self-righteous religious elites.
He proclaimed truth with love, warning against the distortive effects of money and power. He was a friend to outcasts, prostitutes, and criminals, treating them with compassion, respect, and graciousness. He forgave his enemies, asking God to forgive them as He hung on the cross.
Instead of barraging you with quotes and facts about the historicity of Jesus, instead I want to confess a personal struggle, a fairly recent revelation, and what I've learned.
Blind spots are called blind for a reason. Here has been one of mine.
I became a Christian intellectually first. Prior, I thought I was a well-read, well-reasoned atheist.
I’ve always felt a pull towards intellectual superiority, towards wanting to know more and build my identity on being smarter and more thoughtful than, frankly, you, all of you.
As I met some highly educated, whip-smart Christians who kindly corrected my assumptions, I realized I wasn’t nearly as smart or as well-read as I thought I was.
I tore through the books they gave me, first knowing the truth, then realizing I might be wrong. It was terrifying.
We know how this ends. You’re going to die and so will everyone you love. And then you’ll be reunited with God, your creator. Your friends, who knew their shortcomings, admitted their failures, and relied upon the forgiveness of Jesus, will be there, too.
Heaven will come down to earth. All sickness, brokenness, injustice, and hatred will cease. We will be perfected in love, living richly into eternity with purpose and in harmony, finishing the work we started prior to death.
Going overnight for 8 hours at 225F. Wrap at 5 am.
Update: Been up since 4:30 a.m. babysitting it. Bark wasn't nearly as good this time around. Not sure why. Only change was coating in avocado oil prior to applying rubs. Decided to wrap it at an average internal temp of 175F. Temp has exploded upwards in the last hour (~188F).
Umm. I take it all back. With coaching from @HeimBBQ and @TR3Y_KC, I nailed it. Pull-apart tender with great flavor.
2) Selecting well, and far beyond financials factors, is a skill that takes reps to become proficient. What I thought were slam dunks 10 years ago scare me today.
Please don’t get jacked up on cheap SBA money and go tag the 14th thing you look at.
3) The required personal guarantee is no joke. Yes, it’s 10 year money. Yes, you’re going to buy it at a high cf yield. But, SMBs are volatile and often for reasons that aren’t initially obvious.
If things turn against you, you’ll declare bankruptcy. Seen it happen. Not pretty.