Thread by @ShellenbergerMD

Thefts in Walgreens = 4x higher in San Fran than U.S. Why?

2014 ballot measure decriminalized (from felony to misdemeanor) shoplifting/theft when value of stolen items = < $950

- Huge share of shoplifting is funding worsening addiction

- 17k dead from OD in 2000 —> 90k in 2020

https://twitter.com/thomasfullernyt/status/1395730290971070467

In 2014 we Californians had a well-intentioned desire to end mass incarceration & racial disparity when we voted for Proposition 47 but we didn’t consider it might end up killing more poor people of color by fueling addiction and yet that’s precisely what has occurred.

“The retail executives and police emphasized the role of organized crime and told supervisors that Proposition 47, the 2014 ballot measure that reclassified nonviolent thefts as misdemeanors if the stolen goods are worth less than $950, had emboldened thieves.”

“The one trend we are seeing is more violence and escalating — and much more bold,” said Commander Raj Vaswani, the head of the investigations bureau at the San Francisco Police Department. “We see a lot of repeat offenders.”

I found this... odd

“He talked about what he called a laissez-faire attitude in San Francisco.” @thomasfullerNYT

“It has become part of the landscape,” said San Francisco Supervisor @Ahsha_Safai said of thefts. “People say, ‘Oh, well, that just happens.’”

The San Franciscans I’ve interviewed who say such things like that are depressed and discouraged, not laissez faire

People are giving up on San Francisco because it’s government is failing, not because they are libertarians

This, on the other hand, is 👏🏼

Thieves “are obviously choosing locales based on what the consequences are. If there are no consequences for their actions, then you invite the behavior. Over and over.” @Ahsha_Safai

“San Francisco Deputy Public Defender Doug Welch called in to the hearing to say his clients charged with shoplifting are not part of organized crime, but are homeless or struggling with substance abuse and need more services.” @mallorymoench

sfchronicle.com/local-politics…

@mallorymoench Correlation is not causation, and property crime in San Francisco was rising before 2014, when proposition 47 passed, and it would be incorrect to reduce the increase in property crimes to Prop 47. But we should also listen to what business leaders are saying about the timing.

The big spike of OD deaths was driven in large measure by fentanyl, and it is likely impossible to say with any certainty what role other factors including Prop 47 play. We should have as good of a sense of them as we can, but we should avoid false precision.

I agree, I’m an idiot. You have no quarrel with me there. On the other hand, I think it’s better to acknowledge when we are wrong rather than pretend we’re never wrong