Super 🧵 by @kundan_official on recent @Forbes article claiming (but failing) to scientifically debunk the lab leak hypothesis.

One point to discuss in more detail: how should scientists working with pandemic viruses balance academic freedoms with the risk of causing pandemics?
Author @StartsWithABang is worried conspiracy theories could threaten scientific autonomy of select scientists whose work can have catastrophic impact. And rightly points out that we live in a world where gov cannot be depended upon to effectively respond to emerging pathogens.
For instance, the country that is potentially the source of a lab escaped pathogen may not tell other countries what was done with virus X in the lab. And other countries, even after seeing videos of mass death, may think their country is magically immune to pandemics.
We also live in a society where people on extreme ends (including those in power) can behave irrationally and endanger each other’s personal safety.

Even if a lab escape was an accident, many people may not be able to accept the accidental nature of it and are out for blood.
We ideally want to reach a place where cutting edge pathogen research is performed to develop therapeutics/vaccines, but in the most transparent and safest (remote) way possible.

I don’t want to be back here in X years wondering if the pandemic then came from another lab leak.
Some scientists who had nothing to do with work being done in Wuhan are feeling reasonably anxious right now. Someone else’s massive mistake might result in pitchforks coming your way.

My recommendation to these scientists is to advocate as much as you can for an investigation.
The more scientists try to debunk a plausible origin hypothesis, in the absence of any dispositive evidence or intelligence, the less reliable and more self-interested they seem.

It starts to look like academic freedom >> millions of lives.

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More from @Ayjchan

23 May
Re-upping this because I have recently made my way through the China-WHO full report and annexes on their Phase I study in Wuhan.

What their report tells me is that this team and this approach is not valuable in driving a credible investigation of the #OriginOfCOVID19
My opinion is that a Phase II joint study conducted under the same terms by the same team would be a monumental waste of time and resources.

By all means they can go ahead with it, but a separate actual investigation(s) are required.
Their approach is not even suitable for investigating natural origins, not to mention lab origins.

For instance, did any of the team members or journalists who read their report relay publicly that they had not visited the Wuhan Central Hospital or reviewed its patient data?
Read 11 tweets
22 May
The World Health Assembly @WHO is taking place starting Monday.

The Theme:
Ending this pandemic, preventing the next: building together a healthier, safer and fairer world.

To do so, we must find the #OriginOfCOVID19 and prevent it from happening again.

who.int/about/governan…
The world missed its chance to have a proper investigation last year, let’s not waste this year’s opportunity.

@DrTedros said he was ready to deploy new missions to investigate a lab leak as a possible origin of Covid-19.

Please convene a new team.

science.sciencemag.org/content/372/65…
In an earlier open letter from March 4, 2021, a team of interdisciplinary experts (I am in it too!) pointed out the limitations of the current China-WHO study, and suggest actionable and feasible directions for a true investigation of possible lab origins: s.wsj.net/public/resourc…
Read 8 tweets
22 May
Much needed context on this preprint from the WIV:

1. The WIV had these CoVs & sequences for several years already.

2. If they had told us in Jan 2020, they would’ve revealed not just one (RaTG13) but nine closest relatives to SARS2 in their possession.

biorxiv.org/content/10.110…
Remember, in early 2020, there was already all this confusion about what the WIV had been doing with just RaTG13.

Had they sequenced it earlier or post-covid? Had they isolated it?

Was RaTG13 actually btCoV4991, linked to Yunnan miners with severe respiratory disease in 2012?
This is their tree from @nature - no sign of these 8 most closely related viruses excepting RaTG13 at the time!

Why is this group of scientists so confused about the need to publish, in a timely manner, all relevant data to an emerging killer virus?

nature.com/articles/s4158…
Read 11 tweets
21 May
One year ago, any lab-based hypothesis of the #OriginOfCOVID19 was widely reported to be a debunked conspiracy theory propagated by d/misinformants.

Today some scientists are still arguing about how likely/unlikely a lab origin is, but this will no longer stop an investigation.
The CIA director and director of national intelligence are still investigating natural vs lab origins.
There’s a new committee formed by highly respected scientists who are laying the groundwork for a national commission on covid-19. One of its focuses is the origins of covid-19.
Read 7 tweets
20 May
Peter Daszak told @60Minutes @LesleyRStahl "We didn't see any evidence of any false reporting or cover-up in the work that we did in China."

Now he's told @KHN @ArthurAllen202 "There are plenty of reasons to question China’s openness and transparency."
cbsnews.com/news/covid-19-…
March 2020: "you know what a scientific statement is and you know what a political statement is. We had no problem distinguishing between the two."

May 2020: “You can never definitively say that what China is telling us is correct.”
khn.org/news/article/w…
Sorry, 2021 for both - I've lost track of time during the pandemic!
Read 4 tweets
20 May
"“These spillovers take years,” Gray says. “It’s not like in the movies. They go through different steps to infect humans.” So far indications are that the chimeric virus has not evolved to transmit efficiently between people."
sciencemag.org/news/2021/05/t…
To find these steps for SARS2, I'd say that getting access to blood samples banked in Chinese cities prior to Dec 2019 is important.

Granting international experts access to the caves and regions in Yunnan, China where SARS2's closest relatives were found is also important.
It's already very surprising that the Chinese government has -still- not performed these basic checks to find the source of SARS2 / COVID-19 and determine when it first emerged in Wuhan.
cnn.com/2021/02/21/chi…
Read 5 tweets

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