“Like an avalanche, the demographic forces pushing toward more deaths than births seem to be expanding and accelerating. Though some countries continue to grow, especially in Africa, fertility rates are falling nearly everywhere else.” (1/x) nytimes.com/2021/05/22/wor…
“Demographers now predict that by the latter half of the century or possibly earlier, the global population will enter a sustained decline for the first time.”
“The 20th century presented a very different challenge. The global population saw its greatest increase in known history, from 1.6 billion in 1900 to 6 billion in 2000, as life spans lengthened and infant mortality declined.”
“In some countries—about a third of the world—those dynamics are still in play. By 2100, Nigeria could surpass China in population; across sub-Saharan Africa, families are still having four or five children. But nearly everywhere else, the era of high fertility is ending.”
“Even in countries long associated with rapid growth, such as India and Mexico, birthrates are falling toward, or are already below, the replacement rate of 2.1 children per family.” (X/x)

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More from @dwallacewells

22 May
“China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions have grown at their fastest pace in more than a decade, increasing by 15% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2021, new analysis for Carbon Brief shows.” (1/x) carbonbrief.org/analysis-china…
“The CO2 surge reflects a rebound from coronavirus lockdowns in early 2020, but also a post-Covid economic recovery that has so far been dominated by growth in construction, steel and cement.”
“If emissions in 2021 as a whole match the growth seen over the past 12 months, there would be little room for further increases to 2025, under the targets of China’s 14th five-year plan.”
Read 4 tweets
19 May
"If no one is getting sick and spread is controlled since the first event, then in some ways a re-exposure may not be a bad thing but rather can be seen as immunological training." (1/x) nymag.com/intelligencer/…
"Is it ideal? No, of course we want this damn virus to be eliminated..."
"But, frankly, if I am entirely vaccinated and those around me are vaccinated and I was asked in a few months 'Do you want to be asymptomatically exposed?' there is a world where I might say 'Yes.'
Read 4 tweets
19 May
“While their sisters, who have nearly identical genomes, perish within months of being born, these death-defying insects live on for years and years and years.” (1/x)
“They are Temnothorax ants, and their elixirs of life are the tapeworms that teem within their bellies—parasites that paradoxically prolong the life of their host at a strange and terrible cost.”
“Infected Temnothorax ants live at least three times longer than their siblings, and perhaps more. No one is sure when the insects’ longevity tops out, but the answer is probably in excess of a decade, approaching or matching that of ant queens, who can survive for 20 years.”
Read 6 tweets
28 Apr
“Many residents in one of the Bay Area's most popular day-trip destinations are being told that they may need to abandon their homes as sea levels rise.” Stinson Beach is a fascinating case study in adaptation and retreat (1/x). sfgate.com/local/article/…
“Studies show that numerous homes in Stinson Beach will flood with just one foot of sea rise, an unavoidable result of human-caused climate change. Data from NOAA projects that this will likely happen in under 20 years.”
“Six years ago, residents in two of the lowest lying neighborhoods in Stinson Beach — Calles and the Sonoma-Patio — received notice from the county informing them that sea level rise would ‘have an impact on their ability to get permits for improvements on their properties.’”
Read 7 tweets
21 Apr
"For all the admirable sophistication of its targeting, there is one outstanding and all-important question: is the investment program big enough, and will it actually reduce emissions?" The great @adam_tooze gives the Biden Jobs plan a close read. (1/x) newstatesman.com/world/north-am…
"At a generous estimate, half of the $2trn to $2.7trn is devoted to tackling the climate crisis. Spreading $1trn to $1.3trn over eight years comes to around 0.5 per cent of current GDP annually. That is far short of any reasonable estimate of the investment needed."
"The Bernie Sanders camp, backed by the writer and activist Bill McKibben’s 350.org campaign, wanted $16.3trn. The Thrive Act proposal supported by groups associated with the Green New Deal is asking for $10trn, with 80 per cent focused on the climate."
Read 16 tweets
21 Apr
“The scientists call for the state to reduce its emissions nearly 80% by 2030, rather than the currently mandated 40%, through what they describe as a ‘a wartime-like mobilization of resources.’ Why should the Golden State double its efforts?” (1/x) latimes.com/business/story…
“The paper rattles off a dizzying series of facts about the climate consequences already confronting Californians: 4.3 million acres burned in 2020, about 4% of the state... “
“... Nearly $150 billion in health and economic damages from smaller firestorms two years earlier, and conflagrations so bad experts didn’t expect to see them for another 30 years.”
Read 5 tweets

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