Thread by @Noahpinion

1/Today's Substack post is sort of a "where we are" review of a lot of the stuff I've written about this year so far.

My big theme in February and March was optimism. Was I too optimistic?

noahpinion.substack.com/p/time-to-temp…

2/First, let's talk about the pandemic -- obviously still the most important problem.

Our vaccination effort started out world-beating. Our rollout was massive and rapid, conquering supply chain issues. And our vaccines work really, really well.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-us-vacci…

3/But although cases are still trending downward, vaccination has stumbled.

3/Partisanship, America's great curse, has sunk its teeth into the vaccination drive. A significant minority of Republicans (compared to almost no Democrats) declare they refuse to be vaccinated.

cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspecti…

4/Fortunately, our vaccines work so incredibly well that the vaccine refusers probably will not make us vulnerable to a renewed epidemic.

theguardian.com/world/2021/may…

5/But we are still going to have long-lasting pockets of infection and repeated small outbreaks, thanks to antivaxers. Thus, I am a little less optimistic on this issue than I was before.

6/How about the economy?

Everyone (including me) was predicting a roaring recovery. And that is still the likeliest outcome, I think...

noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-long-wil…

7/But we've hit two bumps in the last month or two. The first was a very anemic rate of job growth in April, the cause of which has yet to be definitively identified.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/lets-give-a-…

8/Second, inflation startled people by coming in somewhat high in April, driven by supply bottlenecks in various markets.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/when-to-worr…

9/Neither of these is worth panicking about yet. Inflation is probably going to go back down, and employment growth will probably accelerate.

But there is certainly a little bit more risk here than it seemed like two months ago. So again, I'm still optimistic, but slightly less.

10/How about government policy?

Biden charged out of the gates, looking like the most transformative president since Reagan...or maybe since FDR.

noahpinion.substack.com/p/bidens-first…

11/Biden rolled out huge, bold plans for infrastructure/investment, care jobs, immigration, policing, and voting rights.

BUT, all of these have now stalled, or are under threat of being compromised away.

seattletimes.com/nation-world/b…

12/With Manchin and Sinema blocking filibuster reform, there's just no way to pass most of these big plans. I expect voting rights and immigration not to pass.

13/More worryingly, on his investment/infrastructure plan -- which he could pass via reconciliation -- Biden looks like he might make the Obama mistake of making preemptive compromises in search of GOP support that will never materialize.

politico.com/news/2021/05/2…

14/Most worryingly, Biden looks to have cut science funding out of his bill, saying instead that this will be part of the Endless Frontier Act, a parallel initiative in Congress.

Problem: The Endless Frontier Act has already been utterly gutted.

niskanencenter.org/how-congress-r…

15/So on policy matters, I'm moderately less optimistic than before. It's still possible that Biden is just making a show of reaching out to the GOP before ultimately going it alone.

Let's hope so. He needs to push a maximal investment bill through reconciliation.

16/And finally, technological progress.

A whole bunch of big important innovations have come together recently in a way that promises faster productivity growth. I'm still 100% optimistic about that!

noahpinion.substack.com/p/techno-optim…

17/The only qualifier here is that the death of the Endless Frontier Act and Biden's science innovation plans will remove one of the tailwinds that would have accelerated progress this decade.

So on technology, I'm slightly less optimistic, but still quite optimistic.

18/Basically, there are reasons to temper our optimism. Vaccine refusers, filibusters, and preemptive Biden compromises are the most worrying new storm clouds on our national horizon.

But overall, I still think we're on track for good things.

(end)

noahpinion.substack.com/p/time-to-temp…

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noahpinion.substack.com