1/x If I told you that crypto was going to lose half of its value, Taiwan’s market would have an -8%+ day, ARKK would be imploding, & the NDX was dramatically underperforming, that broad market indices were losing momentum & breadth and were technically
2/x broken on many metrics, that seasonality was fading, quality/ defensives were outperforming, The Fed was floating critical Taper trial🎈🎈, that there are múltiple clues of Fed speculation tightening behind the scenes, that real EarnYield was hitting 40 yr lows, bonds were
3/x blinking defensively green despite dramatic inflationary forces, yet we would have stable price with low volatility despite entering 👸 & 🦥’s post OpEx 🏖 🪟 of weakness, while the S&p would be be sitting -1.5% off all time highs, right on its 20 day SMA...anybody unfamiliar
4/x w/ Gary 🦍 would throw up their hands & be nothing short of exasperated...🤔convinced it was all a rigged game. But 🥐’s know that this is the power of Gary 🦍... he is THIS 💪🏼. With the JPM Fed meeting 🧲 JuneQ 4115 calls providing the most desirable IVol on the board for
5/x cheap, w/ ST term-structure steep w/ the Memorial Day holiday coming & pre-Long weekend Gamma dramatically cheap, dealers are stuck hedged to a secular move & Gary seemingly has a 6 week supply of all-u-can-eat🍌. & U don’t wanna mess with Gary🦍, when he’s this well FED...
6/x That said if it is possible anytime between now & mid July 14, The 🐻’s 🪟is Right now. A meaningful break below 4115 is the 🔑 by 5/26 in order for the broad market to be sucked into the maelstrom & briefly drag off some of Gary’s precious supply. W/out this break, these
7/x last 2 weeks will simply serve as 🚀fuel in the form of more stable rates, more muted commodity prices, more bearish sentiment, & a technically healthy correction in🕰to kick off the next🦵to the🌙... accordingly, this is an important several days...& a perfect opportunity
8/x to hold convexity hedges funded w/ local Vol & dispersion trades. Watch the NDX & ARKK names for clues of reversal or continuation as the next 🦵higher, if it develops EOW is likely to 👀short squeezes in the oversold names & Gary 🦍’s likely to dampen the upside for SPX
9/9 just as he has on the downside, if they can’t manage to take his precious 🍌 away. Don’t be 🐕-matic. Be 💦, my friends. Good Luck!!! 🍀🍀🍀
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