Thread by @jam_croissant

1/x Low Volume=Short ‘🥐 Crumbs’, today...SPX options volume today was a measly 540k, <Xmas eve & lowest volume YTD...Such is the power of Gary🦍, as🥐’s know, there is no fear due to yesterday’s sharp rally & IVol contraction, paired w/ Gamma dramatically oversupplied in 5/28

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1396718727308185600

2/x due to pre-long weekend /post-long -weekend dealer positioning & of course the JPM ‘Fed meeting 🧲’, JuneQ 4115 calls continuing to saddle dealers w/ the most desirable IVol on the board for cheap. Pair that w/the fact that this rally has ST upside momentum challenges, due to

3/x a lack of buying pressure w/ 👸&🦥 @ the 🏖 during the🪟of weakness, & it explains why we are stuck between a 🪨 & a hard place... looking fwd, past Memorial Day, into next week, There are several clues that the summer duldrums are lurking...we have 1/BOM flows followed by

4/x 2/ 👸& 🦥 return. Then 3/an increasingly hedged Fed meeting, where taper talk is largely priced in and dealers are hedged 4/ followed by preparations for the quarterly JP Morgan Vol Crush front run. 5/ a supportive July Vixperation/OpEx period 6/ & finally bullish

5/x effects tied to the Olympics... IOW the calendar isn’t a 🐻’s friend. in order for markets to be sucked into the maelstrom & briefly drag off some of Gary’s precious food supply, a decline would need to begin this week...W/out this break, & w/a move back above the 1.5 stdev

6/x up, after a game of 🐔, we’d point to a lot more of what we saw today, with structural tail winds in the form of more stable rates, more muted commodity prices, more bearish sentiment, & a technically healthy correction in🕰to kick off the next🦵to the🌙... accordingly,

7/x this is an important several days...& a perfect opportunity to continue to hold convexity hedges funded w/ local Vol & dispersion trades to digest the likely ST index pinning. Watch the NDX & ARKK names for continued continuation as the next 🦵higher, if it develops EOW is

8/x likely to 👀short squeezes in the oversold names & Gary 🦍’s likely to dampen the upside for SPX. Just as he has on the downside, if they can’t manage to take his🍉 away. Don’t be 🐕-matic. Be 💦, my friends. Good Luck!!! 🍀🍀🍀

/FIN