+UPDATE+

Concern in Brussels that EU-UK ability to tackle common issues is actually "slowing down" post Brexit deal.

The expectation had been that once the "highly politicised" Brexit trade deal phase over relations would naturally improve.

2 reasons have been given for this..
2/

a) Post deal, the UK has actually stepped up its efforts to "bilateralise" its european dealings prompting EU counter reaction of insisting on full communication & thus delays diplomatic business. EU assumption is that this is part of UK strategy to deligitimise the EU.
3/

b) EU believes UK divergence strategy in its forthcoming trade deals combined with NI protocol rejection means that UK has not entirely given up idea of "cakeism" re single market access.
This means EU believes it has to scrutinise all relations with UK far more intensely.
4/

This has led to a growing consensus that the UK may (for years) involve far more diplomatic resources - both internally & externally - than previously assumed.

It also has precedential knock on effect for the EU with other states who share single market with the EU.

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More from @nicktolhurst

24 May
+UPDATE+

Canada has informed UK it expects the same “zero tariffs/zero quota” on agriculture as Australia is being offered if a trade deal is to be signed.

This would seem to confirm civil servants’ warnings that a trade precedent is being set that will destroy British farming.
2/

While Canada is a significant player in farm exports the real danger here is that it seems implausible the UK could resist giving the US a similar deal to that of Canada.

A chain reaction has thus been set off by the UK over which the British govt may no longer have control.
3/

At this stage, if the Australian trade deal goes ahead as signposted, it’s probably too late to stop this now.

The only really interesting thing will be under what SPS/health restrictions are these deals signed under....
Read 4 tweets
21 May
+UPDATE+

Boris Johnson's spokesman refuses to rule out accepting hormone-injected beef as part of a UK-Australia trade deal.
2/

If this is agreed then allother countries will be able to claim this as precedent.

This will have many subsidary effects.

a) UK farmers will have a legalised incentive to use hormones on their animals
3)

Also:

b) Countries which are able to keep non hormone & hormone food seperate will thus export non-hormone meat to places like Europe with stronger regulations & dump the hormone meat in the UK.

c) UK food will be harder to export to the EU as our food chain compromised
Read 4 tweets
19 May
+UPDATE+

UK civil servants have been tasked with costing a massive multi million farmer support program which will pay British farmers to switch out of farming and/or retire as ministers prepare for possible trade deal with Australia & New Zealand.
2/

For smaller family farms the govt has indicated it is considering going above “the £100 000 cap” on payments floated in 2020 as ministers concede a significant number of sheep/cattle farms’ business models will simply be wiped out if UK adopts zero tariffs/quotas as new base.
3/

The problem civil servants has raised with ministers is that if UK concedes a no tariff/quotas deal with 🇦🇺 & 🇳🇿 then other large countries with significant food exporting sectors like Brazil are likely to insist on this model as a precedent trade model with UK.
Read 7 tweets
18 May
+UPDATE+

Report that "Over 100 direct flights from India have arrived in UK" since Boris Johnson placed India on the Red List on 23rd April.
2/

This would suggest thousands of people came from India at the high point of the variant outbreak.

And that contrary to govt communication no flight ban actually occured, but rather that talk of one accelerated people moving forward their plans to travel to the UK from India.
Read 4 tweets
18 May
+UPDATE+

Michael Gove "walking back" some arguments of harder versions of Brexit in discussions both within Govt & with MPs.

Gove, one of the Leave vote architects, is now thought to favour closer strategegic cooperation with EU & less emphasis on global free trade solutions.
2/

In this context its interesting to see this week's reporting on the trade deals with Australia & NZ:

“There is an absolutely ferocious row going on in Whitehall over the Australia deal...with Gove & Eustice on one side, Truss & Frost on the other.”

ft.com/content/8c5f7a…
3/

Truss is adamant UK should trade with Australia on similar “zero tariff, zero quota” terms to deal UK struck with EU.

“..We’re talking about signing off the slow death of British farming so Liz Truss can score a quick political point,” said one insider opposed to the deal.
Read 6 tweets
14 May
+UPDATE+

Conservative MPs, ministers & Lords have received financial contibutions/assistance from a US organisation that drew up the voting suppression laws expressly aimed at reducing ethnic minority votes in southern US states.

Voting suppression is now coming to the UK.
2/

The "Heritage Action" group has been exposed in leaked videos/doccuments to have drawn up voting suppression laws expressly aimed at reducing certain demographic group votes.

HA is a part of the Koch funded Heritage group which finances Conservative MPs, Ministers & Lords.
3/

So deep is the Heritage/Koch funding of Conservative MPs it will take a very large thread to build it out.

One of the biggest beneficiaries is the corrupt blackmail-vulnerable MP Liam Fox who twice stood for leadership of the Tory party & was Johnson's candidate for the WTO.
Read 5 tweets

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