Businesses covered:
~AU Small Finance Bank
~Bandhan Bank
~CreditAccess Grameen
~Ujjivan Small Finance Bank
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AU Small Finance Bank
• PAT up 39% YoY in Q4
• AUM up 22% YoY & deposits up 38% YoY despite flat disbursements in FY21
• GNPAs rose to 4.3%
• Overall collection efficiency at >120% in Q4
• Revenues up 13% YoY & NII up 4.6% YoY in Q4
• Added 5 Lac customers in Q4 & 29 Lac in FY21
• GNPAs rose to 6.8%
• Interest reversal of Rs 525 Cr in Q4
• Collection efficiency in WB @ 98.3% & Assam @ 83%
• Customer base declined by over 2.4 Lacs
• Disbursements rose by 42% YoY for CAGL & 41% YoY for MMFL
• GNPAs at 4.43%
• Collection efficiency in CAGL @ 97% & MMFL @ 91%
• MMFL integration to be done by H1
Businesses covered:
~Apcotex
~Blue Star
~Tata Consumer Products
~Ultratech Cement
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Apcotex
• Revenues for the quarter were up 61.5% YoY
• Reported its highest-ever revenues, export volumes, EBITDA, PBT & PAT in a quarter in Q4
• Plants running at full capacity for XNB latex for gloves
• Q4FY21 Consol Rev up 26% YoY
• Order book at Rs 2952 Cr
• RAC sales grew 33% YoY & market share @ 13.25%
• Launched new range of pharma cold rooms, medical freezers, ice-lined refrigerators, & vaccine transporters
In the book, “Thinking Fast & Slow”, Kahneman talks about Gary Klein who invented the premortem technique
This technique asks us to use “prospective hindsight”
Go in the future & analyze the past.
Like thinking today, “2-3 yrs out, how can this business go bust?”
Contra Bets are High-Risk High Reward bets.
If you win you win big, If you lose, you lose big too.
A thin line separates conviction and overconfidence in investing.
It is worth applying the Premortem technique here
In our analysis of the business potential of Mahindra Holidays, we have tried to apply the Premortem Technique to look at three ways in which MHRIL can go bust.
It will help us in the future to re-evaluate and measure its progress and try to get the warning signals early.